Brexit

[Up2U]

BBC has just called the election for Leave, Pound tumbles, dollar strengthens. Get ready for a wild ride.

[fountainhall]

Watching the reactions of the markets and the pundits on television it is remarkable that so few of the experts were able to convey with any success the enormity of what is now about to happen - in so many ways. With Scotland having voted so overwhelmingly in favour of staying in the EU, the possibility of another referendum on its leaving the UK must now be extremely high. A break-up the UK as we know it is back on the agenda. Right-wing parties around the EU will gain added strength and embolden them to leave the EU. Will the EU impose punishing sanctions on the UK as it negotiates out, if only to discourage other member states? And all this is before those with savings in sterling and European currencies start to wonder when the massive losses already stacked up in recent hours will begin to regain some of their value. Sterling is now at its lowest level since 1985!

Even more interesting. The result is not binding on parliament. Any chance Cameron and the UK parliament dare to overturn the will of the people?

[Up2U]

"Even more interesting. The result is not binding on parliament. Any chance Cameron and the UK parliament dare to overturn the will of the people?"... not likely based on both the Torie and Labour leader's comments on BBC. Seems like everyone wants to move forward with mediating the impact.

[arsenal]

The UK will be fine, We were fine before we joined and we'll be fine when we leave,

[Up2U]

The UK will be fine, We were fine before we joined and we'll be fine when we leave,

Certainly a Pollyanna reply and doesn't reflect what I am currently watching. Never realized as American that British society is so polarized. Let this be a less as the American election approaches to take nothing for granted.

[fountainhall]

In the long run, I think Arsenal will be proved correct. But it's going to be a helluva bumpy ride for the next 2 - 3 years. Anyone in the UK planning to retire to Thailand in the near future may have no option but continue working for another couple of years.

[cdnmatt]

Let's just hope other EU countries don't decide to follow suit. I guess we still have NATO so it wouldn't be the end of the world. Nonetheless, considering Russia has already invaded Ukraine, it may be a good idea for the EU to remain united.

[Up2U]

Cameron will resign. New PM by October.

[arsenal]

I'll stick my neck out here. I don't think the UK will totally leave but rather remain as part of the trading block without the political interference.

[Oliver]

Leave NATO? great idea. The EU diplomats may be self-serving but those NATO generals are straight out of Doctor Strangelove.

By the way, with Scotland like to leave the UK, perhaps a united Ireland will follow. The Bullingdon Club will go down in history as the ones who killed the UK and restored Little England.

I was pleased to see that my country, London, told Farage et al to get lost....perhaps we could declare independence? With Jeremy as PM.

[cdnmatt]

Leave NATO? great idea. The EU diplomats may be self-serving but those NATO generals are straight out of Doctor Strangelove.

Like it or not, you're happy NATO exists. Same type of thing as for example, there's loads I hate about the US, but I have to admit, I'm happy to see them as the world's super power. I'd much prefer them in that role than China.

Again, let's just hope this doesn't have a domino effect across the EU. I'm sure political factions across the EU, especially in places like Greece, Spain and Portugal are watching closely and are thinking, "well, maybe we should have a referendum too". Germany, UK, and France are leaders of the EU, so the UK leaving is probably going to have some reprecussions. Let's just hope those reprecussions aren't bad enough to make Russia and China jizz themselves.

[arsenal]

Matt. I don't know if you've noticed but China is already jizing themselves. We see their rising dominance every month. This is going to be the Chinese century.

[scottish-guy]

I'll stick my neck out here. I don't think the UK will totally leave but rather remain as part of the trading block without the political interference.

You're REALLY sticking your neck out on that one - no other country in the world has secured such a deal with the EU. To remain "part of the trading block" - e.g by joining EFTA - you still have to pay a contribution to the EU, accept all the rules, and most importantly accept and uphold the principle of free movement - which is probably the single biggest issue which motivated the English and Welsh to vote to exit.

As for the situation with Scotland, a second Scottish Independence referendum is now inevitable. There is no political choice - the vote to remain in the EU was 62 to 38 against, and our First Minister would be lacking in her duty if she did not seek to see it put into effect - and the only way of doing that is if Scotland becomes Independent.

Interestingly, the German parliament has said this morning that Germany would welcome Scotland staying within the EU an as Independent country - which is a dramatic new development as the allegations from the NO camp during the 2014 Indyref was that Scotland would never get in.

Meantime the EU itself is today not bending over backwards to somehow appease the UK - they are telling the UK that now it has voted to exit, then please hurry up and fuck off.

There will be at least a 2 year window of opportunity (during the UK exit negotiations) in which negotiations in principle between the EU and Scotland can take place.

Whether or not Scotland would take their second chance is another matter - there are a myriad of difficulties not leasr of which is the currency issue - but the prospect of Boris the bumbling buffoon as the next UK Prime Minister is worth a few hundred thousand votes on its own

:clapping:

[cdnmatt]

Matt. I don't know if you've noticed but China is already jizing themselves. We see their rising dominance every month. This is going to be the Chinese century.

Wouldn't be so sure of that. The US is still the dominant super power in the world, and doesn't look like that will be changing any time soon. Who do you think is keeping Russia and China at bay right now? There's constant mass US & NATO led military exercises in Eastern Europe, the US has beefed up it's military presence in the South Pacific to ensure China doesn't get any ideas, etc. Like it or not, and agree with US policy or not, they're currently keeping this world a peaceful place to live.

As for the Brexit, the UK leaving isn't the be all and end all. My main fear is that other countries are going to follow suit, and a divided Europe could potentially spell disaster. There's no reason to think a WARSAW type pact can't re-emerge, and I'm assuming there's discussions going on in Moscow right about such a possibiliy. Hell, Russia already invaded Ukraine, so if the EU falls apart, we could be in trouble.

[Moses]

Like it or not, and agree with US policy or not, they're currently keeping this world a peaceful place to live.

Tell that to people of Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya,

[arsenal]

Scottish. I'll wait on that subject. It's for another day but I think calls for another referendum are entirely justified. However, I honestly don't think it will come to that.

Matt: China is already the dominant country in the South China Sea, the largest trading partner for most of Asia, building whole cities in Africa, building military islands in international waters, setting up their own world bank to which the UK and Australia both signed up plus managing to get their own way on a whole number of other issues which you are possibly not even aware of.
The EU and the USA have done their best to push democracy but that battle has been lost, hence Obamas' hastening to develop relations with both Cuba and Vietnam, going so far as to sell arms to the later. Unthinkable just a couple of years ago.

[cdnmatt]

Tell that to people of Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya,

Well, that's for geo-political reasons, mainly due to natural resources.

Granted, the US isn't exactly the most peace loving nation in the world, but they're probably better than having China in the role of super power.

[Moses]

Hell, Russia already invaded Ukraine.

Sure-sure: Russian already 2+ years "invaded" to Ukraine and NATO still searching evidences for this. Everyone has camera on phones now, still no one photo of troops which are marching by Ukraine are published. How it is possible? For sure there are a lot of Russian freelancers and soldiers of fortune on the side of pro-russian rebels in Ukraine, also for sure there are working instructors, advisers and Russia support pro-russian rebels and sell and supply them with weapons.

But for 2+ years NATO still hasn't any evidence of regular Russian army presence behind border Russia-Ukraine. And this "Russian invading" looks like Colin Powell's Presentation to the UN Security Council... I think you understand what I mean :)

[cdnmatt]

You mean aside from the fact Crimea is now a part of Russia? Aside from that little incident, yeah, they haven't invaded at all.

I'm sorry, but Russia has shown every intention of aggression. And there's a chance the UK leaving the EU is just a stepping stone, and other countries will now do the same. If that happens, I wouldn't expect Russia to sit on the sidelines.

[Moses]

You mean aside from the fact Crimea is now a part of Russia? Aside from that little incident, yeah, they haven't invaded at all.


"Aside" from fact what Crimea was part of Russia from queen's Ekaterina II time and has been "gifted" by Khrushov at 1960-s to Ukraine without any referendum. "aside" from fact what Crimea was autonomous republic and voted to exit from Ukraine, "aside" from fact what Russia didn't invaded to Crimea just cuz had 25000 troops in Crimea by agreement with Ukraine since 1993, you are right :)

[cdnmatt]

Ohhh, well, then that makes the annexation via military force totally fine.

Nonetheless, that's neither here nor there. You can't tell me Putin doesn't have aspirations of seeing a WARSAW-like pact again, and the Brexit could be a stepping stone towards that.

[Moses]

Ohhh, well, then that makes the annexation via military force totally fine.



Why you call it military force? Do you remember Argentine-UK conflict? There was "military force". In Crimea no one was killed at time of "annexation", there was referendum with voting.

I have 7 relatives who is living in Crimea now - 3 in Sevastopol (biggest city) and 4 in rural area. Everyone is happy with changes. I know it is small representation, but at least I have news from first hands: no nationalism and neo-nazi harassment anymore, no harassment from police, but still have some corruption in local government.

[arsenal]

Moses. I respect your right to voice an opinion on any issues. I respect you as moderator. I do not think you can do both. It leads to a conflict of interest.

[fountainhall]

The US is still the dominant super power in the world, and doesn't look like that will be changing any time soon.
Agree with the first part. The second depends totally on how you define "any time soon". I suggest you read Paul Kennedy's excellent book "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers". It's a good 30 years since he wrote it but the conclusions remain. Kennedy outlines the reasons why nations rise and, more importantly, why they fall. All empires fall - from the Egyptian, Greek, Roman, Byzantine, Russian, Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, British etc. etc. He suggests that states at the peak of their power have usually by that time started a long period of economic decline which eventually makes it impossible for them to meet their defence commitments.

As an empire expands, so does the requirement for additional funding to police it. Thus there is a direct correlation between the creation of wealth and the military expenditure required to maintain the status of empire. The tipping point comes when too much of an empire's resources are devoted to military might. At various times since the start of the Cold War, the United States has substantially increased its military expenditure as a proportion of GDP. By the end of the Clinton Presidency it had dropped to around 3.5%. After 9/11, it rapidly increased to 4.6% in 2005, then 5% in 2008 and 5.7% in 2011. Obama has been able to reduce it again, but the USA is largely paying for it through printing money as a result of ongoing Quantitative Easing - effectively devaluing its currency (although you'd not think so today of all days!)

Ironically it is Trump who has hammered away at the over-expenditure though countries like Japan, South Korea and Germany not paying anything like their share of defence commitments. But the military's fondness for ever more lethal and up-to-date weapons alongside massive over-billing and rip-offs by contractors certainly doesn't help.

Like it or not China is already well on the way to becoming the next super power.

[arsenal]

With the technological advances, the 2 million Chinese people employed by the government in the surveillance industry and a population of 1.4 billion (and rising) consumers China doesn't require the military strength that previous superpowers required. This will be a new form of colonialism and China will come to dominate the world like no other country ever has.

[Moses]

Moses. I respect your right to voice an opinion on any issues. I respect you as moderator. I do not think you can do both. It leads to a conflict of interest.

Thank you. I have rule: I never make moderation (excluding deleting of direct violations of rules such as spam, childporn and so on) of topics where I'm posting as a member of forum. Even without moderation I still have black triangle at the bottom left of each post and can call for Surfcrest's help (as everyone) :)

[arsenal]

Alright Moses, fair enough.

[cdnmatt]

Why you call it military force?

Because the Russian military popped up during the domestic protests within Ukraine, and basically said, "ok, I think we'll own Crimea from now on"? A shot didn't need to be fired, because what the hell is Ukraine going to do against Russia? Ukraine isn't even a part of NATO, so they're basically defenseless, and definitely no match for Russia. Hell, Russia could probably bulldoze and annex the entire country in 72 hours if it wanted.

Then again, if the EU falls apart in the coming years, Russia may decide it's an opportune time to expand its aspirations. That could spell hell for the world.

[Moses]

Then again, if the EU falls apart in the coming years, Russia may decide it's an opportune time to expand its aspirations.

The east part of Ukraine at time of spring 2014 already made the similar voting as Crimea did, and asked to be part of Russia. The answer was "no". Cuz Russia has enough problem with own land - it is undeveloped. The only people who say "Russia will take us" - are military weapon manufacturers and their lobbyists - they need explanation why they need so much money from budget and people who trust them.

[arsenal]

Are you Russian Moses? Because you are certainly pushing the Russian viewpoint. One country cannot chop off bits of another just because lots of the people who live there are historically and ethnically part of the larger (more aggressive) state. Moreover parts of a sovereign state cannot just hold their own referenda without the central government agreeing to it. The Ukraine crisis started because they looked towards the EU rather than Russia. So are you Russian?

[Moses]

Are you Russian Moses? Because you are certainly pushing the Russian viewpoint. One country cannot chop off bits of another just because lots of the people who live there are historically and ethnically part of the larger (more aggressive) state. Moreover parts of a sovereign state cannot just hold their own referenda without the central government agreeing to it. The Ukraine crisis started because they looked towards the EU rather than Russia. So are you Russian?

It has been declared many times already at GT and here: I'm not Russian but I'm living in Russia for 2 decades already. And I know situation from inside.

My point of view on situation with Crimea is very clear: Russia broke some law, but save people of Crimea from neo-nazi (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion#Neo-Nazi_ideology_and_symbols) and nationalists. Without that Crimea now may be been East-European Rwanda already. The "power engine" of Ukrainian revolution - Maidan - at November 2013 March 2014 been nazi batalions from West of Ukraine and nationalistic parties like "Pravy Sector" ("Right Wing") and "Svoboda" ("Freedom"). Do you remember Rwanda tragedy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide)?

[Moses]

Just short update on situation at March 2014 in Crimea: over 65% of Russians, 15% of Ukrainians, 12% of Tatars (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea)

Quality of life was: the same level of corruption in Russia and Ukraine (a little bit higher in Ukraine), less criminality and better safety in Russia and main - personal income per capita 3 times higher in Russia than in Ukraine (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.PP.CD/countries/1W-UA-RU?display=graph). Crimean choose Russia - they had reasons: safety, personal income, native state language and no place for Ukrainian nationalists.

But main reason has been economical. Even for old people. Russia and Ukraine have similar system of social pensions for people older than 60 years. But Ukraine pays around US$60 and Russia pays around US $250 (as per March 2014, time of voting).

[Surfcrest]

Moses. I respect your right to voice an opinion on any issues. I respect you as moderator. I do not think you can do both. It leads to a conflict of interest.
I look after moderation, not that I'm looking for respect...lol.
I know this topic does not belong in this Forum, I'll move it once the discussion dies down...as it does impact anyone from the UK living in Thailand on the Pound, or Euro.

Surfcrest

[christianpfc]

Not on subject, but I can't this blatant ignorance of history stand as is it, lest someone thinks cndmatt is right:

Like it or not, and agree with US policy or not, they're currently keeping this world a peaceful place to live.
After World War II, the US has been the most belligerent country and been involved in more wars than any other country. [citation needed, just my impression]

[cdnmatt]

After World War II, the US has been the most belligerent country and been involved in more wars than any other country. [citation needed, just my impression]

Yes, they have. That kind of goes hand in hand with being the world super power. Listen, I don't agree with a lot that the US does either. Iraq was obviously bullshit and they knew they were going in under faulty intelligence, Vietnam was a cock-up as well and due to now declassified documents we know the Gulf of Tonkin incident was fabricated, etc.

Like it or not though, the US currently has about 660 military bases, 27,000 soldiers deployed in Europe, another 20,000 deployed in Asia, a strong presence in the South Pacific, and the list goes on. If it wasn't for the US as a deterrent, I would imagine other nations like China, Russia, and North Korea would be acting a little differently right now.

I don't agree with a lot that the US does either, but whether you like it or not, agree with their policy or not, they're helping ensure this world remains a peaceful place to live.

[Moses]

I don't agree with a lot that the US does either, but whether you like it or not, agree with their policy or not, they're helping ensure this world remains a peaceful place to live.

yeah, it is their usual method: to fire war and then to "peacefy" it ... who knew Been Laden before US started to build up his party?

[cdnmatt]

Dude, Putin is hardly a peace activist.

You don't think he's sitting in the Kremlin right now with a shit eating grin on his face, just waiting for the EU to crumble, so he can make his moves and help make Mother Russia great again?

[rincondog]

Not on subject, but I can't this blatant ignorance of history stand as is it, lest someone thinks cndmatt is right:

After World War II, the US has been the most belligerent country and been involved in more wars than any other country. [citation needed, just my impression]

I wonder what West Germany would have looked like, after WWII, had the US been a vindictive conquerer instead of a benevolent one. The Marshall Plan paid for by US taxpayers supported the rebuilding of countries like Germany. Belligerent seems like a vindictive exaggeration. Maybe younger Germans don't understand the reason Germany became an economic powerhouse. Maybe you would have preferred an East Germany experience.

[fountainhall]

If it wasn't for the US as a deterrent, I would imagine other nations like China, Russia, and North Korea would be acting a little differently right now.
You may be correct re North Korea (although I don't believe its dictators are expansionist - their primary goal is self preservation) and Russia, but China's occasional forays outside its own territory has mostly been to shore up its porous borders. It did send a large fleet to Japan at one point - it had to turn back - and its claims to Taiwan and Tibet are dubious. Those territories apart, it has never ventured outside its own borders with the aim of colonisation. All pundits now regard China's absolute priority is the defence of its own long border. There are some more recent disputes re small islands in the South China Sea, but these appear more economic and the possibility of oil. Even its short war with Vietnam in 1979 concerned borders, not expansionism.


I wonder what West Germany would have looked like, after WWII, had the US been a vindictive conquerer instead of a benevolent one. The Marshall Plan paid for by US taxpayers supported the rebuilding of countries like Germany.
A perfectly valid point - apart from one crucial factor which rather kills your argument stone dead! This was not the US being kind to a ruined country and helping Germany back on his feet. It was a vital part of the US strategy to ensure communist Soviet expansionism did not reach to the Atlantic and beyond. In the same way, Roosevelt and Truman rejected Ho Chi Minh's several written requests for assistance in getting rid of the French colonists from Vietnam. The USA was no friend of colonialism. But it also desperately needed French assistance in stopping Soviet expansionism in Europe. And so it did not use any influence with France to persuade it to get out of Indo-China. That one act allied to what the US mandarins believed was the "loss of China" and the now derided "domino theory" led directly to the secret war in Laos, the tragedy of Vietnam and then another secret unauthorised war in Cambodia. That led to tiny Laos over 9 years becoming the most bombed country in world history and directly to the conditions which gave rise to the Khmer Rouge and that ghastly genocide. US actions in being a "benevolent conqueror" in Germany thereby led to the deaths of 5+ million in Asia. That does not fit my idea of "benevolence".

[cdnmatt]

China has been quite expansionist over the past few decades especially. China currently owns nearly all of Africa, a good portion of Australia's natural resources, and a host of other corporations and resource deposits across the globe. Granted, they've done all this economically and not militarily, but nonethless, you can't tell me China isn't expansionist.

What do you think the high speed rail from London to Singapore is for? That's not just China being nice. That's them taking over.

Why do you think one of Obama's foreign policies was to beef up the military in the South Pacific? He knows full well what China's ambitions are, so the US beefed up the military presence in the region to help ensure China doesn't get out of hand. Same goes for Eastern Europe and Russia.

[fountainhall]

China has been quite expansionist over the past few decades especially. China currently owns nearly all of Africa, a good portion of Australia's natural resources, and a host of other corporations and resource deposits across the globe. Granted, they've done all this economically and not militarily, but nonethless, you can't tell me China isn't expansionist.
China's economic expansionism has already been discussed - and agreed - in this thread -


China doesn't require the military strength that previous superpowers required. This will be a new form of colonialism and China will come to dominate the world like no other country ever has.
But my discussion was concerned exclusively with military expansionism, the direction this thread has taken for quite a few posts. I totally agree re China's global economic expansion. But you seem to assume that the reason for this economic expansion will lead to some form of military expansion or non-military take-over. I don't think any experts agree with that line at all. One of the most astute observers of China is the former two-time Prime Minster of Australia, Kevin Rudd, a fluent Mandarin speaker who is now President of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York.

In one speech in 2012, he describes the views of various experts on the likely urbanised-related drivers of Chinese growth demand until 2025 (i.e. in 13 years from the date of the speech). Take a look at the following list. This is the primary reason why China has been snapping up access to raw materials all over the world - to ensure it can meet its own internal requirements - not to expand the borders of China into other territories and countries.


- 350 million more people to move to the cities,
- 221 Chinese cities of greater than a million people (compared with the 35 in all of Europe today),
- A million kilometres of new roads,
- 28,000 kilometres of new metro-rail,
- 170 mass transit systems (twice the number in all of Europe),
- 1.6 - 1.9 billion square metres of new floor space as part of 5 million new buildings,
- 50,000 new skyscrapers (the equivalent of 2 Chicagos per year),
- 97 new airports,
- And, to fuel the above, 1000 megawatts of additional coal fired generating capacity to be commissioned every week.
- Combined with the new wind power turbine being built every hour and a half
http://www.kevinruddmp.com/2012/08/speech-chinese-economic-growth-and.html

[Up2U]

EU referendum: Moody's cut UK's credit outlook to 'negative' - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36626201

[Up2U]

Spain demands shared sovereignty over GIBRALTAR, where 95.9% voted to remain in the EU ..... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3658031/Spain-demands-shared-sovereignty-GIBRALTAR-95-9-voted-remain-EU.html

[Up2U]

Brexit voters have more in common with Arab Spring protesters than they would like to think
Almost by accident, Leave has initiated a revolutionary change, but the weakness of revolutions is that they briefly bring together those with little in common except an antipathy to the status quo.... (read more)....
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-result-leave-arab-spring-protest-vote-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-a7101276.html

[arsenal]

It seems that Matt, Fountainhall and I are actually in generally broad agreement. So, I suspect that neither of you two are American. Because they are, as a nation in denial. However as I point out to them (individually) that China has done this or that they tend to reluctantly see the new reality.
But look at the bright side. From China we are going to get huge advances in energy, food production and transport.

[fountainhall]

Brexit voters have more in common with Arab Spring protesters than they would like to think
Almost by accident, Leave has initiated a revolutionary change
Partly by sheer outright lies. The bus which took the Brexit leaders around the country had splashed on its side in large lettering, "Let's give our NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week." The National Health Service is every UK politician's untouchable - and it does need more investment. How many older voters were swayed by this much seen quote made by Nigel Farage, the Brexit leader - the more so when it was a large majority of the older population who voted to Leave? The fact is this was an outright lie. Not only will the weekly savings be around half of that $350 million, Farage said yesterday he should never had said it. His explanation? "It was a mistake!" So can the poll be rerun because of a huge lie?

And yes, arsenal, I'm from the UK.

[Up2U]

A pyrrhic victory? Boris Johnson wakes up to the costs of Brexit
Vote Leave’s poster boy should have been crowing, so why was his post-referendum press conference so subdued?.... (read more)...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/a-pyrrhic-victory-boris-johnson-wakes-up-to-the-costs-of-brexit?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[fountainhall]

I wonder how true this paragraph actually is -


The scariest possibility, however, is that he actually meant it. That like most of Westminster, Johnson always imagined we’d grudgingly vote to stay in the end. That he too missed the anger bubbling beneath the surface, and is now as shocked as anyone else by what has happened.
Yet another politician out for his own ends - becoming Prime Minister eventually - without any true understanding of what the electorate is really thinking. This is precisely why people in general now rate politicians as little better than sewer rats. I hope he never gets near the PM's job.

[Surfcrest]

Looking forward though, with this Brexit vote...it opens the door for the world to get a whole lot nuttier than this, if Trump can beat Clinton. While he's far back today and mired in controversy, you can't count him out especially in light of this Brexit vote. There are quite a few parallels in the voter demographic, excluding the national boundaries that suggest the older population out numbers the younger population in both countries and vote similarly. Just as Bernie Sanders and his young generation lost steam against the older demographic's candidate, so might Clinton against Trump for the same reasons. Sure there's a racial difference and differences between States in the US, but a lot of people didn't see this Brexit vote coming either including the financial community around the globe. There's a lot of similarities with what happened with Brexit with what's about to happen in the US this coming November. Get out the smelling salts quick!


https://www.facebook.com/OccupyDemocrats/videos/1162607490498970/

Surfcrest

[Up2U]

The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it
By Brian Fung June 24
The whole world is reeling after a milestone referendum in Britain to leave the European Union. And although leaders of the campaign to exit Europe are crowing over their victory, it seems many Britons may not even know what they had actually voted for.... (read more)...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/24/the-british-are-frantically-googling-what-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/

[Up2U]

"Looking forward though, with this Brexit vote...it opens the door for the world to get a whole lot nuttier than this, if Trump can beat Clinton"....SC wrote.... hopefully this will be a wakeup call for the Clinton campaign and take nothing for granted.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/24/no-brexit-isnt-a-good-sign-for-trump/?tid=a_inl

[Surfcrest]

Maybe Thailand has had it right the whole time. Democracy is fast becoming a risky path.

Surfcrest

[Chuai-Duai]

When I arrived in Pattaya nearly a month ago I was getting around 51.5 Baht to the pound. It dropped slightly just before the referendum before recovering and then dropping to 46.5 on the result. I've just walked along Second Road and I see some of the kiosks are offering 48.00 now.

I've seen a lot worse than that over the years I've been visiting and there's nothing about the current rate that would make me revise any plans I had about short or longer visits. I'll certainly be back for a month at Christmas.

[Moses]

3841

[cdnmatt]

if Trump can beat Clinton.

I guess stranger things have happened, but I have a hard time actually seeing Trump win. Hell, the Clintons knew what was up the whole time:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bill-clinton-called-donald-trump-ahead-of-republicans-2016-launch/2015/08/05/e2b30bb8-3ae3-11e5-b3ac-8a79bc44e5e2_story.html

Looks like Clinton was hoping to run against Trump in the general, so I'm sure they have a game plan to ensure they get the White House. Besides, Trump campaign doesn't have any money, whereas Clinton has lots. Plus Clinton has Obama, and his approval rating is looking quite good right now, and he's made every indication he's going to campaign like crazy for Clinton.

[Steve1903]

I wonder how true this paragraph actually is -


Yet another politician out for his own ends - becoming Prime Minister eventually - without any true understanding of what the electorate is really thinking. This is precisely why people in general now rate politicians as little better than sewer rats. I hope he never gets near the PM's job.

No, I prefer sewer rats.

[cdnmatt]

This is getting weirder now. The EU is basically now telling the UK and hurry up and fuck off, because the Brexit vote caused quite a bit of economic turmoil.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/25/europe/brexit-eu-leaders-meet/index.html

I guess no waiting until October. EU seems to figure since the UK voted to leave, then get the hell out asap.

[arsenal]

I'm watching the many interviews. Even the hardened Brexiteers seem to be trying to find a way to not actually fully leave, Well that's easy. Some serious changes from the EU will justify another referendum because the terms of entry will be different.

The EU needs Britain more than Britain needs the EU. We bring something to the party that almost none of the others do. Credibility.

[scottish-guy]

You must be watching different interviews than me - France and Germany telling the UK to hurry up and fuck off.

[cdnmatt]

And looks like you Scottish folks may be getting another independence vote out of the deal.

[scottish-guy]

....We bring something to the party that almost none of the others do. Credibility.

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[arsenal]

Scottish. I'm talking about the Brexiteers. Only to be expected for the big guns of Europe to sound bullish, why even the good donkey haters of Iberia are squeeking about Gibralter. But they're not stupid, they know that if we go then it's only a matter of time before others follow. The UK is in the driving seat here, we can invoke article 50 whenever we choose to, or indeed not choose to. We can, if we so desire have trade agreements in place well before we leave. Have a little bit more faith in your own country Scottish. However the referendum was won by the leave vote and if we go then I reiterate my belief...we'll be fine, just as if Scotland leaves the UK, you'll be fine.

PS. Forget Boris. He has zero chance of dumping his shit in Number 10. He's simply not Prime Ministerial material. Michael Gove is my bet.

[scottish-guy]

Arsenal you do occasionally make sense (when you put your Little Englander mentality to the side) - but to describe France and Germany as lacking credibilty is simply ridiculous.

As for Boris becoming PM - you're the very one who harped on to me about the Bookies never being far wrong - can you find ANY which are favouring Michael Gove? The shortest odds I can find on Gove are 10/1 and the longest odds I can find on Boris are 4/5. I hope you're not forgetting that in the upcoming Tory Leadership contest it is party members who have the whip hand, not MPs - and you only need to look as far as the Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn to see where that formula leads.

[Nirish guy]

Don't worry, It's ok, i'm sure we're in safe hands......... 3844

[arsenal]

Scottish: Where to begin. I did say "almost" but we have perhaps more credibility than both of those two due to their history and the very reasons this whole organisation started in the first place. We didn't join to stop another war but for Germany and France that's exactly why they began. It started with two and could conceivably end with just two.

As you want Scotland to cut loose and drift about in the North Sea like a fat kipper I would say that you're probably more of a Wee Caledonian than I am Little Englander. I don't recall harping on about the bookies so refresh my memory. Boris simply won't stand up to the scrutiny of a PM campaign wheras Gove will. And Gove has gravitas. Boris will also be seen as the one who wielded the dagger and as we both know, in British politics he rarely wears the crown.

[Nirish guy]

And one trait I love about the Scottish is their direct and their concise view of things, they don't hit and miss the wall - as shown by this protester giving Donald Trump a very warm Scottish welcome :-)

3845

* lol and yeah ok I accept that file just might have been photoshopped, but I'm guessing it fairly much sums up the love for Trump in Scotland and the rest of what's going to the left of the UK right now - mind you after Thursday I'm not sure I know WHAT this Country thinks anymore, now that THEY actually do either ! :-(

[francois]

I suggest the UK rejoin the USA as a Territory and then seek Statehood. After all, much is in common including language, culture, ancestry, etc. Uncle Sam wants you!

[Nirish guy]

I suggest the UK rejoin the USA as a Territory !


Ah HELLO, do you KNOW the British culture and mentality at ALL, what's all this "rejoin" nonsense, no, there's nothing else to do but send gunboats up the Potomac River in Washington and retake the White House, run the Union Flag up the flagpole and declare the US UK Sovereign Territory on behalf of Her Majesty. I mean hell we seem to be in the mood to be making some crazy decisions this week, we may as well go for broke - opps, what am I thinking, we just did that already this week it seems !

[arsenal]

NIrish: At last someone talking common sense and who agrees with me. Time to undo the work of that notorious terrorist Mr George Washington and his nefarious allies from over the Channel.

[cdnmatt]

Ah HELLO, do you KNOW the British culture and mentality at ALL, what's all this "rejoin" nonsense, no, there's nothing else to do but send gunboats up the Potomac River in Washington and retake the White House, run the Union Flag up the flagpole and declare the US UK Sovereign Territory on behalf of Her Majesty. I mean hell we seem to be in the mood to be making some crazy decisions this week, we may as well go for broke - opps, what am I thinking, we just did that already this week it seems !

Maybe us Canadians can pitch in and help. Afterall, we still have the Queen on our money, and we did burn down the White House once. :)

[Nirish guy]

Right CDN - thats settled then, So, you guys take the right flank and we'll talk to the Mexicans and get them to chip in and look after the left flank, we'll then send the main British forces right up and in through the front doors and us lot, well with us being a gay board and all we will of course be chipping in by attacking via the rear entrance :-)

Up and at 'em, no Surrender and the first into the Oval Office gets a Knighthood from the Queen(s) :-)

[Moses]

Afterall, we still have the Queen on our money

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[cdnmatt]

So, you guys take the right flank and we'll talk to the Mexicans and get them to chip in and look after the left flank

Good idea. We should probably recruit El Chapo too. He can dig us a tunnel that goes directly underneath the White House into the Oval Office, as I've heard he's good at tunnel building.

[Up2U]

Lord Hill resigns as UK's European commissioner following Brexit vote
UK’s most senior diplomat in Brussels says, ‘What is done cannot be undone’
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-lord-jonathan-hill-resigns-european-commissioner-latest-news-updates-eu-referendum-a7102606.html

[Up2U]

Nicola Sturgeon announces plan to keep Scotland in the EU despite Brexit vote
'We will seek to enter into immediate discussions with the EU institutions and other EU member states to explore all possible options,' says the Scottish First Minister... (read more)...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-nicola-sturgeon-scotland-scottish-independence-eu-referendum-europe-a7102566.html

[cdnmatt]

Moses, don't be a dick. That's just being disprestful. Here, I can do that too.

http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/galleries/x701/73984.jpg

[cdnmatt]

Cold War 2.0: The US military is beefing up its presence in the former Soviet Bloc

https://news.vice.com/article/cold-war-20-the-us-military-is-beefing-up-its-presence-in-the-former-soviet-bloc

[Moses]

Moses, don't be a dick. That's just being disprestful. Here, I can do that too.



do you need help? :p

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pictures with five dollars wasn't my drawing, you know...
http://dangerousminds.net/comments/bank_of_canada_urges_star_trek_fans_to_stop_spocki ng_their_fivers

3854

[fountainhall]

Nicola Sturgeon announces plan to keep Scotland in the EU despite Brexit votel (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-nicola-sturgeon-scotland-scottish-independence-eu-referendum-europe-a7102566.html)
I like and admire Nicola Sturgeon. But the economic argument in favour of Scotland's independence has surely taken a huge knock with the price of oil now about half what it was at the last Referendum. It will be interesting to see the economic estimates.

[Up2U]

Germany, France Lead Demands For Britain To Negotiate A Quick Divorce
Paris warned that populism will otherwise take hold after Britain’s vote to leave the bloc sent shockwaves around the world.
06/25/2016
Michael Holden and Paul Carrel
LONDON/BERLIN, June 25 (Reuters) - Germany and France led demands on Saturday for Britain to negotiate a quick divorce from the European Union, with Paris warning that populism will otherwise take hold after the vote to leave the bloc sent shockwaves around the world.

The European Central Bank added to the pressure by saying Britain’s financial industry, which employs 2.2 million people, would lose the right to serve clients in the EU unless the country signed up to its single market - anathema to “leave” campaigners who are set to lead the next government in London.... (read more)...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/germany-france-lead-charge-for-britain-quick-divorce_us_576e8218e4b017b379f61d5d?032on9gqnpx905 p14i

[arsenal]

Fountainhall: For Gods' sake man don't go down that path. Scottish will copy out The Wealth of Nations and post it to your inbox. When it comes to predicting future economics...clearly, obviously, without any doubt whatsoever and in the words of Wee Jimmy Kranky.
"They know nothin about nothin."

[scottish-guy]

I like and admire Nicola Sturgeon. But the economic argument in favour of Scotland's independence has surely taken a huge knock with the price of oil now about half what it was at the last Referendum. It will be interesting to see the economic estimates.

Fountainhall I usually respect your opinion, so I'm assuming you don't seriously think that all Scotland has going for it is OIL? It's a significant part of our economy but we are by no means reliant on it.

Oh - and check this out for laughs - if only Cameron had told us during indyref1 how good it is to be a small oil-rich independent nation (like Norway) - instead of repeatedly asserting the direct opposite !


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHYBIkPmoVg

[Moses]

Do you seriously think that all Scotland has going for it is OIL?

noooooo... there are gas and wool fabric also :crazy_mini: by the way: we have now new animated smilies at forum

[arsenal]

Yes. And shortbread and pandas and tartan and bagpipe shops too.

[scottish-guy]

No point trying to open a closed mind Arsenal - so let's just sit back and see what happens.

Thanks for the new emoticons Moses - but the man with the party hat and blow-tickler is still sorely missed!

:drink:

[Tobi]

I like and admire Nicola Sturgeon. But the economic argument in favour of Scotland's independence has surely taken a huge knock with the price of oil now about half what it was at the last Referendum. It will be interesting to see the economic estimates.

Not only that, Scotland exports twice as much to the UK as it does to the rest of the world. Sturgeon might well struggle to convince the Scottish people to put that at risk, along with switching to the Euro and accepting a physical border with England. She'll also need to get Westminster's permission to hold a second referendum in the first place!!

[rincondog]

NIrish: At last someone talking common sense and who agrees with me. Time to undo the work of that notorious terrorist Mr George Washington and his nefarious allies from over the Channel.

You seem naive, their are more guns in the US among civilians than there are guns in the UK including their military. More likely you would be bloodied more than you were in the revolutionary war.

[cdnmatt]

Yeah, and according to various US politicians, you guys still don't have quite enough guns. You need more, apparently. Every club goer and teacher needs to be armed, plus armed guards stationed at every school. Then gun violence will drop.

[rincondog]

Yeah, and according to various US politicians, you guys still don't have quite enough guns. You need more, apparently. Every club goer and teacher needs to be armed, plus armed guards stationed at every school. Then gun violence will drop.

Yeah, I didn't say it was a good fact, only reality. Americans are ready to stop any homeland invasion, even from their own government.

[cdnmatt]

Americans are ready to stop any homeland invasion, even from their own government.

Wouldn't be so sure of that. You know the old saying of don't bring a knife to a gun fight? Well, these days in the US it's more along the lines of don't bring an AR-15 to a drone armed with Hellfire missiles fight.

Not to mention all the military hardware the Pentagon has sold to local police forces. Seriously, do US cops really need this type of thing for a drug bust?

http://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/host.madison.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/a/26/a261031e-da01-516b-9a30-5f4ca656c66a/5371948de7580.image.jpg

For fuck sakes, it even has a turret on the top.

[rincondog]

Wouldn't be so sure of that. You know the old saying of don't bring a knife to a gun fight? Well, these days in the US it's more along the lines of don't bring an AR-15 to a drone armed with Hellfire missiles fight.

US gun nutters aren't the most mentally stable group. People flying hobby drones have had them shot down by some paranoid gun nutters.

[rincondog]

"Looking forward though, with this Brexit vote...it opens the door for the world to get a whole lot nuttier than this, if Trump can beat Clinton"....SC wrote.... hopefully this will be a wakeup call for the Clinton campaign and take nothing for granted.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/24/no-brexit-isnt-a-good-sign-for-trump/?tid=a_inl

By the time of the November election it will probably be obvious that Britain will be in or headed for a recession. Clinton only needs to point that out as an example of what Trump would do to the economy. She is already making the case that he would be a disaster for the US economy.

[scottish-guy]

Not only that, Scotland exports twice as much to the UK as it does to the rest of the world. Sturgeon might well struggle to convince the Scottish people to put that at risk, along with switching to the Euro and accepting a physical border with England. She'll also need to get Westminster's permission to hold a second referendum in the first place!!

1. There is absolutely no reason to suppose that an independent Scotland and what's left of the UK would be anything other than good neighbours and trading partners. The reason that Scottish goods are bought in the UK is not out of patriotism - its because they're high quality and at the right price. In an independence situation Scottland would be exercising self-determination - not starting a war, so there's no reason to fall out.

2. It is not a requirement to adopt the Euro to join the EU - a new member merely has to make an open-ended committment to it. Apart from that, you cannot join the Euro unless you meet the criteria - and Scotland currently does not. This issue is at best a red herring and at worst a lie.

3. Is a post-brexit physical border being proposed betwen N. Ireland and the Republic? If not, why would one be required between Scotland and England - and if it IS being seriously proposed then why should anybody fear a border. Do you fret and worry about crossing the Thai border when you visit? As long as the appropriate arrangements are made then what's the problem

4. The UK Govt's "permission" is not required for the Scottish Govt to hold a consultative referendum. The UK constitution is reserved to Westminister but the referendum question can be worded in such a way that it avoids falling foul of that. For example "Do you agree that the Scottish Government should open negotiations with the UK Govt with a view to Scotland becoming an Independent country". This wording does not impinge on the constitution. The Edinburgh Agreement was entered into last time as it suited both parties and put the issue beyond any legal challenge

5. It seems that Scotland and N. Ireland may in fact have a veto over Brexit (see below). The legal situation is certainly ambiguous and could tie the issue up in the Courts for months. Sturgeon's price of not pursuing the ambiguity could be UK agreement to Indyref 2 as in 2014.

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[Tobi]

1. Even if Westminster gave permission for a second referendum for next year and Scotland voted for independence, uncoupling will take years, so Scotland would therefore be applying to join the EU. Sturgeon won't even get a hearing from the EU until the UK has left, it would mean that regions like Catalonia would similarly have to be listened to, which Spain would never tolerate. If Scotland is part of the EU, trade with the UK will depend on whatever EU trade agreement the UK has forged. It could be subject to tariffs, for example.

2. If Scotland leaves the UK, they can't use the pound, which means forging their own currency, or joining the Euro.

3. Yes, the reimposition of a physical border is being proposed in Northern Ireland. Scotland would have to accept free movement of people if they join the EU which would mean a border would be a necessity, simply to stop people walking from an EU country into a Non-EU country.

4. If you don't have Westminster's permission they'll ignore it. They can even technically ignore the referendum they've just held. I think you're confused that the Government has to act on the result of a referendum. It doesn't.

5. Scotland could technically withhold consent, again it would just be ignored.

I don't have any axe to grind. I just don't believe when all these issues are aired, and given that 38% of Scots already wanted to leave the EU, that it's unlikely that a second independence referendum would succeed. I very much doubt Sturgeon will call for one unless she is absolutely certain she could win. If independence failed for a second time, she'd be finished.

[Nirish guy]

You seem naive, their are more guns in the US among civilians than there are guns in the UK including their military. More likely you would be bloodied more than you were in the revolutionary war.

Ha don't worry I think you can safely assume that we WERE all joking and that we're fully aware of that / get that already :-)

[Moses]

3856

that's not Photoshop

[Nirish guy]

Sorry but you're wrong - it totally was photoshopped it seems.....be careful what you read and believe on the internet !

http://www.snopes.com/british-refugees-welcome-sign/

[scottish-guy]

Tobi

1. Why would Independence and EU accession negotiations take any longer than the UK Brexit negotiatons which today have been extended from 2 years to more like 4 years according to LEAVE representatives on TV? Kindly bear in mind that unlike any other accession country, Scotland's legal and others systems are already fully compliant with EU regulations so there is no "lead" time. We shall see whether Sturgeon "gets a hearing" or not - she says contact has already been established, but it will be low level "off the record" contact at this stage. The UK will not impose tariffs on EU goods as the EU would retaliate and that would simply see a mass exodus of EU employers moving their operations out of the UK.

2. The pound is an internationally tradeable currency - no country can be prevented from using it. Venezuela could use it tomorrow if she so decided. See this from former Head of Bank of England a couple of months ago:

http://stv.tv/news/politics/1346145-independent-scotland-can-use-the-pound-unofficially-says-former-bank-chief/

3. A physical border is not being officially proposed in Northern Ireland - the issue has been raised that's all. A way will be found round the issue. In any case - bring it on.

4. I'm not in the least confused - all referenda in the UK is non-binding. If the result was YES and the UK ignored it then steps would have to be taken.

5. The report I quoted was from the House of Lords - the UK Govt can't "just ignore" the view of its own supreme legal authority.


.. I very much doubt Sturgeon will call for one unless she is absolutely certain she could win. If independence failed for a second time, she'd be finished.

Not disputing that - that's why she is not proposing Indyref2 at this time, but is saying it is "on the table". It will not happen unless there is sustained evidence that it commands majority support - this very point is in her manifesto

[Nirish guy]

I'm a Unionist in the Uk but even I concede the Scots ( who voted for independence) would be mad NOT not have another dig at it. The Unionist side of my brain would say that "hey, like it or lump as members of the "UK" ( which we're all a part of) we al voted for this ( albeit regionally it seems) so we'll just have to try and make the best of it".

But I can totally understand others, especially those with independence in mind saying "fuck that, we didn't vote for this so we're making a break for it come what may" - as that also suits their main aim too of course - and therein lies my whole problem with this vote, it was NEVER really one Country voting together in tandem ( as the UK IS four separate nations of course ) but was more a case of that in throwing them all together in this way it's flagged up those very real regional differences that have always existed here and has opened up a can of worms that quite simply didn't need to be opened as the UK seems to have managed quite well up to now ( SG I know you'll disagree with me on THAT but hopefully you get my point there as I do yours in general in this case.)

[Tobi]

1. Sure, if the UK's actual exit does takes four years, but I honestly don't think it will, the trigger looks likely to be pulled in October-November. You're also assuming that Westminster would give a damn about rushing Scotland's second referendum to beat the UK's exit from the EU. I wouldn't rely on that if I were you. Sturgeon can talk-and-talk-and-talk, but she will get nothing concrete from the EU that she can use. The EU will insist that Scotland has to wait until the UK has left, gain independence, then apply to join the EU, with all that entails. I wasn't talking about the UK imposing tariffs on Scotland, but the EU ending up by imposing tariffs on the UK, which means the UK will retaliate back, and that will then include Scotland if they eventually become part of the EU. That will be a huge problem given Scotland's dependence on trade with the rest of the UK, and the risk of this a difficult sell to the Scottish people.

2. Of course, anyone can simply use any currency, plenty of countries do with the US$ for example. However, you've automatically surrendered control of your finances, ie. if the UK decided to introduce massive quantitive easing for example, Scotland couldn't do a thing about it, even if was going to bankrupt them. It's also something of an unknown as to whether the EU would even consider a country for membership that didn't have control of its own currency and finances.

3. Yup, I agree, I also doubt many Brits really give a shit about Scottish independence, but a border would have a much bigger impact on Scottish finances than it would on ours. Again, Sturgeon would have to convince the Scottish population that all of this is a price worth paying.

4. What steps? If the UK Govt. just says "thanks for your input, but we're not going to exit the EU", nothing would happen. I doubt UKIP could gain enough seats at the next general election to make it a manifesto pledge, not that those mean much these days.

5. The UK Govt doesn't even have to ignore it, they'll simply pass a new law.

I think independence for Scotland would be incredibly interesting, if not downright hilarious, especially if it all goes pear-shaped, ie. Scotland joins and then the EU collapses. Germany, France, The Netherlands and Sweden quit, leaving Scotland trying to prop up Greece. Hey, I always enjoy a little epicaricacy! However, I honestly believe that even if there is another Scottish independence referendum on the basis of BREXIT within the next few years, I think it will be rejected again by the majority of Scottish people. If that happens, as we agree, Sturgeon is finished, and then it's likely that it wouldn't get raised again for at least another generation.

[Tobi]

I'm a Unionist in the Uk but even I concede the Scots ( who voted for independence) would be mad NOT not have another dig at it.

It's almost bait-like. huh? How can Scotland pass up this bright, shiny opportunity?! It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. In the next few weeks, I imagine Spain will throw carpet-gnawing conniptions if Brussels entertains Sturgeon even in an unofficial capacity. I'm wondering because of Catalonia, whether Spain might well veto any attempt by Scotland to join the EU forevermore anyway.

I'm also waiting to see what the next few months brings, whether there is in fact a backlog of proposals and legislation that's been on hold to prevent frightening the Brits. Turkey, anyone?

I should also put my hand up and confess I voted out, based on a single issue for me, which is the EU's treatment of the people of Greece, which I find abhorrent and completely unacceptable.

[scottish-guy]

Tobi

From a situation 2 days ago where it was ONLY the SNP (and Scottish Greens) were advocating Independence - with all other politicians and media implacably opposed, things have moved incredibly fast:

Former Labour First Minister Henry McLeish has come out for Indy
Former Labour Health Minister Malcolm Chisholm has come out for Indy
Slavishly Labour supporting tabloid newspaper the Daily Record has come out for Indy
Broadsheet newspaper The Herald has come out for Indy as has the Sunday Herald
Executive Editor of the Daily Mail in Scotland (fucking hell) Kevin McKenna has come out for Indy
Sunday Post poll puts support for Indy @ 65% (with DKs excluded)
Mike Dailly - member of the Financial Services Authority's statutory advisory body and a member of the European Banking Authority's Banking Stakeholder Group - has come out for Indy
Jean-Christophe Lagarde - President of France's Union of Democrats and Independents - has written to President Hollande of France urging an EU "open door" for Scotland
German Parliament has said Scotland "welcome in the EU"


I've been around a long time, probably so have you - when tipping point is reached things move incredibly fast.

At this point I have no idea how it's going to roll - and I'd respectfully suggest neither do you.

Let's just sit back and watch, instead of ping ponging posts between us

#Saw your reply to NIrish and on the Spanish veto a) they have never said they would use it and b) they need the access to Scottish fishing waters. There is no parallel with Catalonia

[Tobi]

Let's just sit back and watch, instead of ping ponging posts between us

Umm, you jumped in on my original response to @Fountainhall, but do feel free to retire from the fray if you're overtired and fretful. :)

However, as I said, I'm more than happy to get a bucket of popcorn in, sit back and watch what I think will turn out to be a highly entertaining farce. I've got side-bets on the Euro being a busted flush, with the Netherlands next to get their own referendum, followed by Sweden and France. It'll be hilarious if Scotland ends up begging to climb on a bandwagon just as everyone else leaps off, huh?

[scottish-guy]

Terribly sorry to have "jumped in" on your private conversation (in a public forum) with Fountainhall LOL

I'd assumed most SGT members are happy to have their posts commented on - and that's why they post?

UPDATE

Guy Maurice Marie Louise Verhofstadt - 47th Prime Minister of Belgium - says "Wrong that Scotland might be taken out of EU when it voted to stay. Happy to discuss with Nicola Sturgeon next time she's in Bxl"

:clapping:

PS: Any guy who has the middle names Marie Louise deserves our respect!!

PPS: Anybody interested in following the fast-moving developments go to #indyref2

[Tobi]

By the time of the November election it will probably be obvious that Britain will be in or headed for a recession. Clinton only needs to point that out as an example of what Trump would do to the economy. She is already making the case that he would be a disaster for the US economy.

It's also something the EU is relying heavily on, their worst nightmare will be if it doesn't happen, as a "successful" UK after Brexit means people in other countries will perceive there's nothing to fear from leaving the EU. However, I don't think Clinton will necessarily benefit by November, as the UK might not even have triggered Article 50 by then. It also wouldn't totally surprise me if Mutti doesn't make up some kind of "associate" membership of the EU and dangle that in front of the UK to prevent a complete split.

[Tobi]

Terribly sorry to have "jumped in" on your private conversation (in a public forum) with Fountainhall

No need to apologise, but I'm happy to accept yours, just try to remember that if you do reply in someone's stead, it's impolite to try and cut the conversation before they've had a chance to respond. :)

[cdnmatt]

Clinton doesn't need any help to defeat Trump. They've planned this campaign for years now, and have also (quite successfully) played both, Trump and the Republican party as fools. It's already started, and only going to grow in intensity. Just wait for the televised general election debates, and watch Clinton make Trump look like a total imbecile.

[frequentfliers]

People of Northern Ireland will hopefully get a chance to vote for reunification now.

[frequentfliers]

Clinton doesn't need any help to defeat Trump. They've planned this campaign for years now, and have also (quite successfully) played both, Trump and the Republican party as fools. It's already started, and only going to grow in intensity. Just wait for the televised general election debates, and watch Clinton make Trump look like a total imbecile.

If she is not in jail.

[arsenal]

There's so much crap in this thread that to simplify things I'm going for the Auld Enemy. Scottish: Surely the arguments you are using for saying that Scotland will be fine away from the UK are the same ones being touted for saying the UK will be fine away from the EU. We English do indeed buy Scottish goods because they're bloody wonderful and this is the same reason the Europeans buy goods from us.

[cdnmatt]

If she is not in jail.

She's been through 8 Congressional hearings about it already. Quite obviously, nobody gives a shit about her and her e-mails except a handful of retards in the Republican party. She has a much better chance of occupying the White House than a cell in a super max prison.

[rincondog]

It's also something the EU is relying heavily on, their worst nightmare will be if it doesn't happen, as a "successful" UK after Brexit means people in other countries will perceive there's nothing to fear from leaving the EU. However, I don't think Clinton will necessarily benefit by November, as the UK might not even have triggered Article 50 by then. It also wouldn't totally surprise me if Mutti doesn't make up some kind of "associate" membership of the EU and dangle that in front of the UK to prevent a complete split.

The last months of 2015 the British economy was only growing at .5%. It wouldn't take much to slide into a recession. Granted it has to have 2 quarters to officially declare a recession, however, I doubt if anyone would actually wait two quarters to call a recession. It is the uncertainty that rattles the financial markets and that isn't something that will change in a month.

[a447]

I'm sitting here, 14500 km away from all the Brexit action, so not being in the thick of it means it's hard to know exactly what is going on.

Given the fact that the vote was so close, splitting the population almost right down the middle, and given the fact that the result is non-binding on the government, is there any possibly that the government decides not to go ahead with the Brexit?

When those who voted to leave realise the enormity of their decision, and have time to digest what has happened to the share market and, consequently, to their retirement savings, is there a chance they might want to re-think their decision?

It appears that opposition to the result is now beginning as the ramifications set in. There's even talk of a second referendum.

It seems the Brexit voters ran full steam ahead without stopping to think of the
consequences, one of which may see that buffoon Boris becoming PM.

Given that other EU members are now thinking of following Britain's lead, there seems little chance of Britain being allowed to exit on their own terms, or at least terms which they may find favourable. The EU will have to make an example of Britain and punish her in front of all the other wavering EU members.

[fountainhall]

I'm assuming you don't seriously think that all Scotland has going for it is OIL? It's a significant part of our economy but we are by no means reliant on it
Well, that's hardly what the SNP suggested prior to the Referendum. Its own published estimates stated that "by 2016-17 oil revenues will be somewhere in the region of £6.8bn to £7.9bn." Oil was then standing at over $100 per barrel. A Scotland that would about now be independent would have a hole of £3.5bn to £4bn on its balance sheet. I realise the reduction in fuel prices may be helping many but that's a massive deficit to make up. And the local economy of Scotland's oil capital, Aberdeen, has tanked.

[QUOTE[Colin Welsh, chief executive of oil financiers Simmons & Co, said there is no doubt the Aberdeen industry is suffering very badly and he thinks half of those directly or indirectly employed in Britain due to the North Sea could eventually lose their jobs. “2016 is going to be carnage. What looked like sensible levels of debt for companies a year or 18 months ago now look ridiculous.”[/QUOTE]
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jan/23/aberdeen-once-rich-oil-city-now-relying-on-food-banks

The other problem is the UK in general is one of the highest cost producers of oil at around $60 per barrel. Unless the price starts to rise quite soon, the knock-on effects will be magnified.

Well, I suppose there’ll always be haggis (best with a splash of Drambuie, I find), Angus beef, Harris Tweed and Pringle sweaters – oops, I forgot, these are now made in Asia!

But I’m still not against another Referendum for Scottish Independence. I just think the economics would be quite a bit more difficult this time around.

[fountainhall]

I'm wondering because of Catalonia, whether Spain might well veto any attempt by Scotland to join the EU forevermore anyway.
Does one member state have the right to veto a proposed member if all others agree to it?

Bringing up the Spain issue adds another problem posed by Brexit, this time for the large number of Brits who live in Spain, many of them retired. With Britain out of the EU, they automatically lose the health benefits available throughout the EU to residents of EU countries. Unless they already have private health insurance (and i am sure most don't), age is likely to mean most of these people will have to return to the UK. What then happens to the budget airlines serving some of the airports near those Brit communities? Once they become uneconomic, the service will be axed, forcing those who are left with the near certainty of travelling much further for reasonably-priced flights to the UK. To a lesser extent the same will be true for Brits who have made their retirement homes in France, Italy etc.

[fountainhall]

So the online petition calling for a revote has gathered steam and now has in excess of 2.5 million signatures. Only 100,000 are needed for it to be considered by a parliamentary committee.

What I find hugely perplexing is that coupled with this perhaps understandable development, "What is the EU" has received a massive volume of requests on google. It's almost as though, like sheep, many of those who voted had no real clue of what they were actually voting for, other than the immigration issue. And then there are those Leave voters coming out of the woodwork who now say they had not realised the effect the vote would have on the country and the world, and they would vote differently now and pick Remain!

Even Cornwall in England's South West which voted to leave is now seeking assurances from the UK parliament that it will keep getting the funding it had been getting up to now from the EU!

As the old saying goes: "A leap year is never a good sheep year!"

[Tobi]

At this point I have no idea how it's going to roll - and I'd respectfully suggest neither do you.

As I was saying... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3660320/NON-EU-slaps-Sturgeon-SNP-leader-dramatically-announces-wants-immediate-discussions-STAY-EU-humiliated-Brussels-says-No-s-not-works.html

[Tobi]

It wouldn't take much to slide into a recession.

I totally agree, just that I don't believe a technical recession would do much good to the Clinton campaign, it would need something visually obvious to make a difference.

[Tobi]

I'm sitting here, 14500 km away from all the Brexit action, so not being in the thick of it means it's hard to know exactly what is going on.

I'm right in the middle of the action and no-one really has a clue what's going on, least of all the politicians, many of whom like Osborne have simply disappeared!

I think only by calling a general election would the Government be able to ignore the referendum result. Article 50 also doesn't include any option to pause or stop an exit once started, so as soon as it's triggered it would require all remaining 27 countries to agree an entirely new deal with Britain, which is unlikely to happen within the given timeframe.

The thing that's surprising a lot of "experts" is that nothing much has happened regarding the UK stock market and the pound, yes it all "collapsed" for a few hours but it bounced back, to positions already seen within the last 12 months.

I think EU politicians have woken up to the fact that all the threats of Project Fear didn't work and may well have been counter-productive. Mutti is already publicly insisting that there must be no "punishment" of the UK for leaving and hinting of an associate membership deal.

2+ years is a really long time in politics, it wouldn't surprise me if there is a bonfire of the Euro before then, some like Soros are already predicting the collapse of the entire EU project. Most believe that if another member state calls a referendum and votes to leave, then it really is all over for the EU. I've put my money on the Netherlands being next, although Sweden or even France are a distinct possibility.

Grab some popcorn!!

[fountainhall]

Kipling wrote a nice little line or two in "Epitaphs of the War". They are the words of a dead statesman but are equally apt re many of the politicians in the current Brexit situation -

I could not dig; I dared not rob:
Therefore I lied to please the mob.
Now all my lies are proved untrue
And I must face the men I slew.
What tale shall serve me here among
Mine angry and defrauded young?

[Tobi]

Does one member state have the right to veto a proposed member if all others agree to it?

Currently, yes, it requires all member states to agree. It wouldn't surprise me if that doesn't change at some point in the future though, as Turkey knows that the Greek veto would always mean it could never join the EU.


Unless they already have private health insurance (and i am sure most don't), age is likely to mean most of these people will have to return to the UK.

I don't think many will even think of returning to the UK. After all, expats in Thailand and elsewhere in the world have to buy medical insurance, don't they? It's also a lot easier to return to the UK for treatment if you're in Spain. Long term expats might also decide to apply for dual nationality, adding Spanish citizenship to their mix. The UK Government might even be willing to agree to continue to finance EHIC.

Again, with the flights, huge numbers of expats live a lot further away than Spain, with much more difficult travel arrangements. I can't believe there won't be flights from the major cities, all of which are within a few hours reach, or that the ferries will stop just because we left the EU. The flights rely much more on British tourism for their existence than expats.

[Up2U]

There are liars and then there’s Boris Johnson and Michael Gove
Nick Cohen
Saturday 25 June 2016
Where was the champagne at the Vote Leave headquarters? The happy tears and whoops of joy? If you believed Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, the Brexit vote was a moment of national liberation, a day that Nigel Farage said our grateful children would celebrate with an annual bank holiday.... (read more)....
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/25/boris-johnson-michael-gove-eu-liars?CMP=share_btn_tw

[Up2U]

'No need to write, David,' impatient EU tells Cameron
BRUSSELS | BY ALASTAIR MACDONALD
REUTERS
Britain need not send a formal letter to the European Union to trigger a two-year countdown to its exit from the bloc, EU officials said, implying British Prime Minister David Cameron could start the process when he speaks at a summit on Tuesday.

"'Triggering' ... could either be a letter to the president of the European Council or an official statement at a meeting of the European Council duly noted in the official records of the meeting," a spokesman for the council of EU leaders said.

A second EU official, asked about mounting frustration among leaders with the British prime minister's delay in delivering the formal notification required to launch divorce proceedings, said: "It doesn't have to be written. He can just say it."... (read more)... http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-notification-idUSKCN0ZB0YK

[Tobi]

A second EU official, asked about mounting frustration among leaders with the British prime minister's delay in delivering the formal notification required to launch divorce proceedings...

Mrs Merkel added that she was not in favour of pushing for a speedy withdrawal. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36632579

[a447]

So, could someone please tell me who the winners are in this situation?

I can't find any long-term winners from where I'm sitting.

[fountainhall]

I don't think many will even think of returning to the UK. After all, expats in Thailand and elsewhere in the world have to buy medical insurance, don't they? It's also a lot easier to return to the UK for treatment if you're in Spain.
i cannot provide any evidence, but I suspect a great many are aged over 65 who sought retirement in the sun. British citizens actually benefit from virtually free Union-wide medical coverage. That will disappear. Getting private medical insurance after you reach 65 is all but impossible. And, yes, the UK is only a short flight away. But that's not much good if you have just suffered a stroke, heart attack or other major illness requiring immediate treatment. Besides, after you have lived outside the UK for a certain number of years, you lose your automatic access to the NHS - as I know too well - if you have not been paying UK taxes. Just paying the National Insurance contributions is no longer enough, thanks to changes made by the first Blair government.

[Tobi]

So, could someone please tell me who the winners are in this situation?

I don't think anyone can, only time will tell. If, as many believe, the European Project really is a house of cards and will collapse shortly anyway, then exiting now was probably a good idea, albeit we may have hastened the end by doing so.

[Tobi]

Just paying the National Insurance contributions is no longer enough, thanks to changes made by the first Blair government.

Yup, as it is completely ridiculous that if you're resident in Thailand your state pension is fixed but if you're in the Philippines it isn't. I think EHIC in some form might well survive, it'll depend on the government of the day, but anyone who retires to a country abroad accepts certain risks. It's certainly a lot easier to get back to the UK from Spain and France, you don't have to fly for example. If you declare you're returning for good, you have immediate access to care on the NHS, whether or not you do actually end up staying. I don't think medical care will be the cause of droves of expats returning to the UK, many who retired to Greece for example have always said that Greek state-based medical care was worse than useless, and it certainly hasn't got any better.

[cdnmatt]

How difficult would it be for the UK to call a snap referendum for a revote? From what I'm seeing, if that is a legal possibility, there's a chance it could happen, it would be voted to remain, and this whole ordeal would just go down as one huge cock-up.

[scottish-guy]

How difficult would it be for the UK to call a snap referendum for a revote? From what I'm seeing, if that is a legal possibility, there's a chance it could happen, it would be voted to remain, and this whole ordeal would just go down as one huge cock-up.

Legally, nothing to stop it but politically it would open up a huge can of worms:

Quite apart from it meaning ignoring the democratically expressed will of the people, if the UK Govt were to say it's ok to have another referendum within days of just having had one, where would that leave Tobi's/UK Unionists argument about the UK Govt being able to deny Indyref2? Answer: in tatters.

Won't/Can't happen.

Arsenal's front-runner for PM - Michael Gove - has just said that he won't stand for the job.

Utter chaos - what a fucking bunch of incompetents to have running the country

[Tobi]

How difficult would it be for the UK to call a snap referendum for a revote?

The government could certainly call another referendum. The EU called repeated referendums until Ireland coughed up the "right" answer. However, rather than call another one, the government doesn't need to do anything, it can legally ignore last week's result.

[a447]

Scotty, I agree with you that to have a second referendum would mean ignoring the will of the people, but given the closeness of the vote and the huge, as yet undetermined ramifications for so many people, maybe the government should may vote the bullet,

I wouldn't be surprised if a large majority of the population welcomed a second vote.

[Nirish guy]

People of Northern Ireland will hopefully get a chance to vote for reunification now.

What even though the majority here ( on both sides) have already clearly stated their wish to remain within the UK several times now several times in things such as the GFA and several other ( very recent) elections. What a strange concept and even aside from a Unionist majority it's even accepted ( and measured in recent polls that a large swath of even usually non unionist voters would vote to "remain" here as they've got quite a good thing going on here jobs, health, lifestyle wise in Northern Ireland. As for how long that continues on for ALL of us after last week is of course a whole different question !!

[Tobi]

I wouldn't be surprised if a large majority of the population welcomed a second vote.

I think the risk will be that if the government calls a second referendum and doesn't exit the EU, you will see huge swing from both sides to the right and far right. I think we'd likely end up having to fight this whole issue again in 2020, with potentially UKIP ending up in the catbird seat.

[cdnmatt]

Legally, nothing to stop it but politically it would open up a huge can of worms

Yeah, the UK would have to kiss alot of ass in Brussels, and plead, "sorry, we were just kidding. can we come back now?" :)

[RonanTheBarbarian]

...What even though the majority here ( on both sides) have already clearly stated their wish to remain within the UK several times now several times in things such as the GFA and several other ( very recent) elections....

I think wishful thinking on the politics on your wee province is running away with you there NiRish. My memory of the last Assembly election was that Sinn Fein (who have have the aim of all-island unity as principal political selling point) were the far and away majority party amongst the Catholic/Nationalist community, as they have been pretty much since the GFA.


...and even aside from a Unionist majority it's even accepted ( and measured in recent polls that a large swath of even usually non unionist voters would vote to "remain" here as they've got quite a good thing going on here jobs, health, lifestyle wise in Northern Ireland. As for how long that continues on for ALL of us after last week is of course a whole different question !!

Yes, as long as the English taxpayer continues to subsidise the province to the tune of €10-12 billion a year, you have got a "good thing going", but if Scotland leaves and you end up with a UKIP minded Little Englander government in Westminster, all could be up in the air.

[Nirish guy]

Sorry Ronan you are right of course re Sein Fein and I fully accept that as a bigger picture.

I didn't word that very well but what I generally meant and what is accepted here ( and has been tested even within the last year via local polling) was that EVEN a lot of those Sein Fein voters who when quietly polled said that they're actually happy enough as things stand here just now and re the bigger picture they're happy enough that Sein Fein bang on about border polls etc as historically that what they're all about of course etc, in REALITY they simply would rather they didn't just now as they and many other people here are happy enough with their lot compared to those in the South who maybe aren't just now.

Anyway, I'm all for reunification, Ireland can ask to come back to the UK anytime they want and I'm sure we'd be glad to have them ...... Actually no, hold on, I actually doubt that we / the rest of the U.K. even would actually ( if there's any UK left worth talking about by then that is of course :-(

[Nirish guy]

Interesting twist just hitting the news : Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36633244

Hmmm how ironic ( but good) would THAT be. The Scottish stepping in to "save the UK" ( albeit for their own ends) and at least perhaps giving the British Government a legal out from having to proceed down this dangerous path they've been forced along, interesting to see where this one goes ( although I'm guessing probably no where).

[Tobi]

Interesting twist just hitting the news...

As you said, and others who were just talking with Andrew Marr, it'll go no where, because Sturgeon can't stop the Prime Minister signing a letter or making a speech, which would trigger Article 50 and an irreversible exit. I think she's now desperately clutching at straws having realised that Brussels will make her wait until after the exit and gaining independence to join the EU. This morning's coup against Corbyn is even funnier, the shadow cabinet are all resigning as a show of no confidence whilst the Labour Party are saying they'll immediately vote him back in if there's a leadership contest. Unbelievable!

[arsenal]

I can't remember who said what but I'll address a few issues. Osbourne is furiously working behind the scenes, as is Cameron to sort it out, probably talking to Farage and Johnson as well as the other European leaders. I don't KNOW this but it's what politicians do.
Nothing has changed. There is lots of chat and so far, nothing else. May I remind you all that you are talking about the United Kingdom, not some third world backwater tinpot dictatorship. In the last century it wasn't Britain that had a slump and people starving to death, it was America, it wasn't Britain who started two world wars, it was Germany, it wasn't Britain who was invaded twice, it was almost everyone else. The over reaction has been ridiculous. To the Brits on this board. Please...get a grip. Whatever happens, we'll be ok, We've always been ok,

[cdnmatt]

May I remind you all that you are talking about the United Kingdom, not some third world backwater tinpot dictatorship. In the last century it wasn't Britain that had a slump and people starving to death, it was America, it wasn't Britain who started two world wars, it was Germany

No, but you did colonize about a third of the world. It was just never officially called a world war.

The UK just ended up winning out, so instead of going down in the history books as "invading" other nations, you just "colonized" them. Same shit, different pile, but colonizing sounds much more peaceful.

[Tobi]

Whatever happens...
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2016/jun/25/wartime-poster-secret-auction

[Tobi]

No, but you did colonize about a third of the world.

For the love of—— someone had to teach them English! ;)

[arsenal]

Yes we did Matt. Including you.

[cdnmatt]

Yes we did Matt. Including you.

Yeah, I know. Legally, Canada still can't even pass any laws without the Queen's approval. Every law still has to be signed by the Lieutenant Govenor who speaks for the Queen. Plus other things, like when they call an election, only the Lieutenant Govenor can dissolve parliament. Granted, it's only there for the sake of tradition, but nonetheless...

[scottish-guy]

Interesting twist just hitting the news : Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

Au contraire my dear NIrish - this is not news!

People who were paying attention heard that HERE from ME yesterday (why, I even posted a visual aid for the less able, like Tobi)

:D

[scottish-guy]

This morning's coup against Corbyn is even funnier, the shadow cabinet are all resigning as a show of no confidence whilst the Labour Party are saying they'll immediately vote him back in if there's a leadership contest. Unbelievable!

Tobi you really should give up on giving us your political analysis - you have completely missed the fact that it's by no means certain that Corbyn could currently muster the 46 MPS necessary to validate his candidancy in any leadership election.

The guy is TOAST

[fountainhall]

Before the glory of the UK is burnished even more, let's never forget that it's colonial history is far from laudatory. Look at Africa! Further east, forcing the Chinese to accept opium instead of silver for its exports after it had got so many Chinese hooked on the drug is a huge blot on its record. Yes, I know the Chinese comparadors were in on the act and their "squeeze" helped the trade flourish. But the way it then raped China and annexed part of its coastline insisting on its own laws - albeit followed by quite a number of other colonial powers - was typical of British certainty that it was taming barbarians whilst at the same time lining its own pockets. The UK's record in the 20th century is a great deal more praiseworthy than it ever was in the 18th and 19th.

[scottish-guy]

I can't remember who said what but I'll address a few issues. Osbourne is furiously working behind the scenes, as is Cameron to sort it out...

It's equally likely that Osborne has not emerged because he is in the same condition as Yeltsin was in when he couldn't get off the plane in Shannon.

Except in Osborne's case it probably wouldn't be booze as he allegedly has quite a different "habit" altogether (nudge nudge wink wink)

[Tobi]

You have completely missed the fact that it's by no means certain that Corbyn could currently muster the 46 MPS necessary to validate his candidancy in any leadership election.

Yeah, you don't know much about this politics stuff do you, huh? The incumbent gets to be on the list regardless.

[Tobi]

...let's never forget that it's colonial history is far from laudatory...

We're just not up there with Genghis Khan, are we? :(

[scottish-guy]

Before the glory of the UK is burnished even more..

Oh you're wasting your time trying to get Arsenal or Tobi to see the bigger picture - I'm sure Tobi has a Union Jack waistcoat in his wardrobe and here's a photo of Arsenal in his living room (and btw he REALLY needs a haircut)

3857

[Nirish guy]

Love - 15 Tobi :-) Hang on guys, I'm just away to get some popcorn :-)

[cdnmatt]

We're just not up there with Genghis Khan, are we? :(

Oh no, pretty close I think. It's just that you guys won, so you were allowed to write the history books. :)

[scottish-guy]

Tobi

I might not know much but I obviously know more that you do, as that very issue is RIGHT NOW under discussion between members of the National Executive Cttee of the Labour Party, as the rules are very ambiguous as to whether Corbyn requires to re-nominated should there be a contest

[Tobi]

Love - 15 Tobi :-) Hang on guys, I'm just away to get some popcorn :-)

I told you, this whole fiasco requires an imax screen, unlimited popcorn, and... and... and... SUPERMARIONATION !!! Just think, this show's going to run-and-run-and-run right through the silly season and then for a couple of years thereafter once the trigger gets pulled. I'm happy to kick the game off by offering odds-on that @scottish-guy will throw at least a dozen carpet-gnawing conniptions a month until the end of October. :D

[Tobi]

I might not know much ...

Yup, we know that, but in future, try googling before you write up rubbish as facts, instead of afterwards. :)

[Tobi]

Oh no, pretty close I think. It's just that you guys won, so you were allowed to write the history books. :)

Hannibal? I like Hannibal. He had elephants! :)

[scottish-guy]

..in future, try googling before you write up rubbish as facts, instead of afterwards. :)

I didn't google anything it was stated on Marr/Peston/Murgnahan,Sunday politics this very morning - obviously you know better than the senior party sources who made the comments

[Tobi]

I didn't google anything it was stated on Marr/Peston/Murgnahan,Sunday politics this very morning - obviously you know better than the senior party sources who made the comments

You were the one insisting he needed 46 MPs to nominate him. whereas according to the Labour Party, he doesn't as the incumbent gets his name automatically added to the ballot. I think like Sturgeon, you've been left clutching at straws. ;)

[scottish-guy]

As I said, in these situations things move fast: the UK Govt's Sectetary of State for Scotland has said he won't serve under Boris Johnston and his Labour shadow has just resigned.

Bearing in mind there is only 1 Tory and 1 Labour MP left in Scotland, by October its entirely possible we could have an English MP as Secy of State and an English MP as his shadow. That'll go down well

[Nirish guy]

its entirely possible we could have an English MP as Secy of State and an English MP as his shadow. That'll go down well

I wouldn't worry, we've been dealing with that particular oddity for years now, it's not so bad actually as once you get bored with them you can let it be known their services are no longer required and London just sends you a new one. It's a bit like M&S, as long as you keep the receipt you can return them within a reasonable time with no questions asked. :-)

[Nirish guy]

Yeah and 52% fucking the other 48% .......whilst cumming in their eye and getting up and walking away whilst leaving them to clean up the mess :-(

There, right back on topic :-)

[scottish-guy]

Good on ya NIrish

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scotland-germany-idUKKCN0ZC0R1

[Tobi]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scotland-germany-idUKKCN0ZC0R1

Yup, "an independent Scotland would be welcome to join the European Union", which means Scotland has got to quit the UK first and then apply, which is exactly the same for any other country in Europe, albeit they'll be behind established accession candidates such as Albania.

[frequentfliers]

She's been through 8 Congressional hearings about it already. Quite obviously, nobody gives a shit about her and her e-mails except a handful of retards in the Republican party. She has a much better chance of occupying the White House than a cell in a super max prison.

Am not a supporter of Trump,but she is a liar,and may have broken the law.Time will tell.

[arsenal]

Goodness me. I go and watch a Euro 2016 football match and 4 pages of high quality cut and thrust debate have appeared. Of course Scotty has no interest in 2016. This will change when Scotland becomes independent and their hitherto pile of pants team will win every major tournament. This is a fact. That the Scottish national football team is an embarrassment to the whole of the British Isles is, of course, entirely the fault of the terrible English because we stabbed their balls in 1746.

[Nirish guy]

That is of course WHY Scotland voted to remain in Europe - as they knew it would be the only way they'd be getting there this year !! :-p

Mind you considering Northern Ireland put ourselves out via an own goal last night perhaps I shouldn't say too much ! But at least we ( and every other Country in the UK EXCEPT Scotland GOT THERE in the first place I guess - eh SG :-)))))

he he and if you think that's mean SG you know I'm merely stating that fact while I can as it's been 30 years since we last qualified and I'm sure it'll be another 30 before we do again ( or maybe not actually of late!) so I figured I'd better get my cheap dig in whilst I still can ! :-)

[arsenal]

NIrish. They voted to remain in Europe because they know they need babying and can't actually face the world alone. Look at their peer group,,,,Pitcairn Island and Lesotho, Even Disney has a bigger GDP than the old Picts.

[Nirish guy]

NIrish. They voted to remain in Europe because they know they need babying and can't actually face the world alone.


Now if ever there could be someone being accused on trolling on this board ......... :-)

But come on, it hardly counts as it's SO easy where SG is concerned on that topic as we ALL know he'll bite every time ! :-)

[Tobi]

That is of course WHY Scotland voted to remain in Europe...

Is Scotland suffering from Stockholm syndrome? It wants independence from the UK only to immediately cede such new-found sovereignty to the EU. It's hard not to think of Scotland as some kind of masochistic slave that simply fancies a change of master! :D

[arsenal]

England will win the world cup before Scotland acknowledges the huge debt of gratitude they owe the English. When we got there they were feral, living in peat huts. Now, thanks to us they have houses and cars and some of them even go abroad.

[scottish-guy]

Personally I've never been abroad.....



...I've always been a guy


:drink:

[RonanTheBarbarian]

....they and many other people here are happy enough with their lot compared to those in the South who maybe aren't just now.

I wouldnt disagree there, but what I notice that it is mainly a purely financial decision,for nationalists. I know some people in NI from a nationalist background, who would be more SDLP or even Alliance voters than SF, who would oppose a border poll for the reasons you described, as at the moment it would be too risky financially, particularly the fact that the south couldn't afford the current subsidy.

But when I asked them if one removed the financial risk, and said that they could vote for unification in a border poll secure in the knowledge that it would be financially an even deal for them, and that the Loyalists would not revolt, they have virtually all said that they would then definitely vote for Irish unity.

I know that a border pool in such circumstances is at the moment pretty unthinkable, but it is reflective of the fact that there doesnt seem to be to many hearts and minds captured for the Union since the GFA, even if nationalist think it financially unfeasible now.

But I will admit that the nationalist side since the GFA doesnt seem to have captured too many hearts and minds for the idea of a united Ireland amongst unionists either. At the moment the situation there seems stuck in neutral, waiting for some external shock, such as perhaps the break-up of the UK, to change things.

[RonanTheBarbarian]

And as for Scottish independence, what I think many are not taking into account with Scotland is that in the new dispensation, the Scottish/English border would become, like in NI, the boundary between the EU and (the remainder of the) UK, and so would be quite a harder border than was envisaged in the last Scottish independence referendum.

If the negotiations in Brussels go badly between Boris and the eurocrats,it could be a quite hard border indeed (although the border dwellers would presumably have the prospect of Duty Free shops at the border to cheer then up). Scotland could face cutting herself off from her main market to the south, in a way that didnt matter the last time due to both countries being presumed then (after Scottish independence) to remain in the EU.

[Tobi]

...it could be a quite hard border indeed...

Yes, rebuild Hadrian's Wall... with extra elephants!!! ;)

[francois]

Yes, rebuild Hadrian's Wall... with extra elephants!!! ;)

Are you thinking of Hannibal or Hadrian? Can't recall that Hadrian imported any elephants into Britain.

[Nirish guy]

Your thoughts and observations about here Ronan are bang on. Already there's a mixed bag of talk about sticking with "the UK" whatever that may in some camps, the nationalists as you rightly state would probably in general leave in the morning if it suited them financially ( whether the loyalists liked it or revolted or not) and SOME loyalists are already openly suggesting that we go with Scotland for either independence or some form or joining with them as staying in the EU.

Personally I don't see any of the above ideas as overly workable and just hope that as you say some outside event causes people to review their existing entrenched positions, but as I'm guessing Nationists will accept nothing else than their "United?) Ireland and loyalists definitely / probably won't I'm not sure where it goes from there. Again speaking personally I can be bought, fuck birth right, give me a million and a visa for somewhere warm and I'll go in the morning and either side can have and do whatever the hell they want !!

[scottish-guy]

Ronan & Tobi

If you had watched the "Emergency" Question Time/Brexit post-mortem on BBC tonight you'd have seen the Leave representatives (i.e. the winning side) insisting there would be NO QUESTION of a border between N Ireland and the Republic.

So, if they can find a way round that situation (and they insist they will), why would there be one between Scotland and England?

This is sheer scaremongering and it won't work. 55% of us were fooled once, the same won't happen again.

[Nirish guy]

I'm guessing that no border thing is simply because it IS Northern Ireland it involves ie they don't really give a shit and they know that politically here to raise the border again would be to open can of local political worms hence they intend to use N.I as their new "checkpoint France" and let us become to processing centre for whoever and whatever comes from the rest of the EU via the Republic.

All I can say is they can try it, I doubt EITHER side will allow us to become that particular whipping boy just for the "pleasure" of remaining joined to England and Wales - which does of course leave more questions than answers and ones that I certainly don't have the answers to right now.

[Up2U]

Tim Kaine on Brexit vote: Young people voted to stay, old people voted to leave
Brexit votes by age
By Lauren Carroll on Sunday, June 26th, 2016
Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., discusses the Brexit vote.
Since the United Kingdom’s stunning vote to leave the European Union, political observers have wondered what the ramifications will be in the United States, especially what it will mean for the 2016 election.

On June 26, Meet the Press host Chuck Todd asked Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., for his take on Britain’s exit (Brexit).... (read more)...
http://www.politifact.com/global-news/statements/2016/jun/26/tim-kaine/tim-kaine-brexit-vote-young-people-voted-stay-old-/

[fountainhall]

And as for Scottish independence, what I think many are not taking into account with Scotland is that in the new dispensation, the Scottish/English border would become, like in NI, the boundary between the EU and (the remainder of the) UK, and so would be quite a harder border than was envisaged in the last Scottish independence referendum..
It would be harder for the out-of-the-EU English than the in-the-EU Scots. At only 154kms, the length of the land border, though, is really quite short and would not be difficult to control. Since it would be the English who'd be more desperate to keep out EU citizens, no doubt they'd have to pay for it! :cool:

[arsenal]

The sound of backtracking from the leave campaign leaders is getting louder and louder. Boris said that free movement and free trade would continue whatever happens. This was never supposed to happen, It seems that a very large percentage of those who voted to leave were protest voters. Cornwall in particular are shitting themselves that their subsidies are going to disappear. I predict that once again, Britain will save Europe from themselves.

[fountainhall]

HSBC has announced it will be moving 1,000 jobs from London to Paris after Brexit. How many financial enterprises are based in London? How many more jobs throughout the country will disappear? With sterling dropping further today, it is tempting to fly immediately to the UK and snap up everything I'd been planning to stock up on in the next 2 years before prices start to rise. With the pound down more than 15% and approx. 17% returned (after fees) on VAT charges, a lot of goods will be near bargain basement prices. Thai import duties? Forget Thai customs! A little tea money will go a long way with them!

[scottish-guy]

Good on you Founty - with the political disintegration thats going on in England I'm going out to Aldi today to stock up on Corned Beef, Tinned Potatoes, Beans, and (in view of the other items)... Toilet Roll.

Osborne's minders appear to have straighted him up sufficiently to put him in front of a camera later this morning. No doubt the fluids they'll have put into him over the weekend will make him look sparkly bright.

There's speculation this morning that he'll ride on Boris Johnson's ticket as his "number two" (which would be highly appropriate)

[Tobi]

With sterling dropping further today...

I emptied my foreign accounts to buy sterling on Friday. The market volatility is likely to calm quickly, when everyone wakes up to the fact that nothing has changed nor will change for a couple of years at least. The HSBC job losses are those specific to euro trading, many in the financial sector feel brexit may yet prove a huge opportunity for the UK, especially with MiFIDII arriving in the next couple of years.

[fountainhall]

Just saw this lovely summation recorded a week or so ago about why the UK should stay in the EU - despite not liking part (many parts) of it. (Just click on watch this video on YouTube)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HF-IlQ1bcQA

[arsenal]

Fountainhall. Sums everything up perfectly, Quite quite brilliant.

[Moses]

Reaction in Russian social networks:

3859

Gorbi : David, my boy, now you carry the burden of a man sprawled Union

[arsenal]

It might be funny in Vladivostok Moses. But it doesn't translate well.

[Moses]

It might be funny in Vladivostok Moses. But it doesn't translate well.
well, it's fast translation by Google

in Russian Gorbi says something like "David, now you will be known as a men who destroyed the Union (flashback to Union of Soviet Republics history)

[Tobi]

It might be funny in Vladivostok...

You reckon?! ;)

[justaguy]

In the long run, I think Arsenal will be proved correct. But it's going to be a helluva bumpy ride for the next 2 - 3 years. Anyone in the UK planning to retire to Thailand in the near future may have no option but continue working for another couple of years.

Make that a few decades :)

It is really really simple, the UK will miss out on being part of a bigger Europe. A market with over 200 million people is simply bigger and more influential than when the UK alone needs to negotiate trade deals for instance.

Personally I believe whoever voted leave didn't really use their brains. A Brexit will NOT stop immigration, the only thing that it will do is give the UK control back over parts of legislation that was now dictated in Brussel. Personally the price they are going to pay is way to high for that small advantage.

It is hillarious how key people from the Brexit campaign have already pulled a fast one on promises that they suddenly can't keep. And Boris and his access to the internal European market, what the hell was he thinking, they won't get that access without a very steep price, and rightly so.

Edit: maybe I wasn't entirely fair. Brexit might in fact reduce immigration, but not for the reasons the Brexit people intended, it might just be that the UK will become a less desireable destination for immigrants :D

[scottish-guy]

Justaguy - I'm sure the EU market is actually more like 500 million.

[justaguy]

Justaguy - I'm sure the EU market is actually more like 500 million.

500 million IS over 200 million :) According to wikipedia it's 508.2 million give or take :D

[Up2U]

Brussels rejects Boris Johnson 'pipe dream' over single market access
Diplomats dismiss idea UK could stay in single market without obeying the rules, and German BDI also pushes back at claims
Jennifer Rankin in Brussels and Philip Oltermann in Berlin
Monday 27 June 2016
European diplomats have dismissed claims from Boris Johnson that the UK could negotiate access to the EU single market without obeying any of the rules.

“You cannot have your cake and eat it,” said an EU diplomat, echoing a phrase the former mayor of London used during the campaign and which looks set to come back to haunt him.... (read more)...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/brussels-rejects-boris-johnson-pipe-dream-over-single-market-access?CMP=fb_gu

[fountainhall]

Boris and his access to the internal European market, what the hell was he thinking
Devastating article about the lying, shaggy-topped Boris in The Daily Beast headed Beware Boris Johnson: The Power of a Cunning Clown.


Boris, I fear, belongs to a peculiarly dangerous British type—a type that, in my days as the editor of Tatler in the 1980s, I christened the Gentleman Hack, “hostile to facts and even more hostile to investigation" . . .

His dress tries to denote the aristocratic reach-me-down tradition—hence the goose-shit green corduroy trousers, which he always teams with one of his two detached collar shirts... Unfortunately, deep down, the gentleman hack is very very ambitious, hence his hatred of meritocracy. Indeed, he is possessed by a hard and desperate longing for money, rank and recognition. How can he achieve this and conserve his image of cordial irrelevance? It can be done.”

And it was.

. . . according to Johnson’s inner circle, before he came out for Brexit, he assured Prime Minister David Cameron that he would stand with him firmly for Remain.

Johnson’s fake disarray—his bonhomous tanker of beer and Falstaffian spilling gut, his genial, jokey façade concealing a deeply opportunistic nature—allowed him alliances with such odious figures as UKIP’s xenophobic leader, Nigel Farage, whose rat poison salesman persona would never have won Brexit without the fig leaf of Boris’s charm . . .

The core of the Gentleman Hack is his fundamental lack of seriousness. No wonder the day after the vote, as markets crashed, the PM resigned, and Scotland announced it might hold another referendum to break away from the U.K., Boris looked mildly rueful, even chagrined.I’m reasonably sure he never dreamed that Brexit would actually succeed. Like the Republican blowhards who demand that the IRS and the EPA be abolished, secure in the knowledge that it ain’t gonna happen, Brexit for Boris was an indulgence in purely gestural politics. It was meant to advance his leadership prospects with the right of his party in time for the next election. Now he’s like the dog that caught the car. Having trashed the brakes and the steering wheel, he now finds he might have to drive the thing

. . . All hail the next prime minister of the United (though maybe not for long) Kingdom.http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/27/beware-boris-johnson-the-power-of-a-cunning-clown.html?via=mobile&source=email

[scottish-guy]

That's all very well, but if there's blame being apportioned then it lies at the feet of:

A) The British media who have fostered and feasted on not just xenophobia but downright racism. It's expected of course from the odious right wing press like the Daily Mail (whose owners supported Hitler) and the equally repellant Daily Express - both of which increasingly seem to vie with each other to see who can come closest to Der Sturmer, but it includes tv stations like Channel 5 on which it seems every 3rd programme is about "migrant benefit scroungers". Of course you'll hear the cry that not all Brexiteers are racists but its undeniably true that all racists are Brexiteers.

B) Cameron himself - this was a referendum that simply didn't have to happen in the first place and was only offered to prevent UKIP hoovering up the right wing Tory vote. The irony is that in giving them the air of publicity, they not only hoovered up much of the right wing Tory vote but a good deal of the working class Labour vote too.

Farage is a total dick leading a party with 1 MP and who cannot even get himself elected - yet he has been feted by the media at every utterance and invited on to top current affairs tv programmes with a regularity which is alarming.

Boris is a buffoon (I don't believe it's an act as the above article suggests - he really IS thick) who has achieved what he has achieved by virtue of the fact that the English (and I say English because the rest of the UK sees right through him) love a clown (Eddie the Eagle anybody?) and the fact that he and his family have sufficient money to buy the influence which has been necessary to get a 10th rate politician up the greasy pole.

So there!

:D

[Tobi]

That's all very well, but if there's blame being apportioned then it lies at the feet of...

... the EU itself, which favours its policies over people.

[Moses]

Maybe we will continue conversation about Brexit?

[Tobi]

Maybe we will continue conversation about Brexit?

My pleasure! ;) The EU has deliberately and systematically impoverished the people of Greece. It's truly unforgivable.

[Moses]

The EU has deliberately and systematically impoverished the people of Greece. It's truly unforgivable.

It depends on point of view: some experts say Greece has very liberal pension system with high payment, filled from European sources.

[scottish-guy]

I dont claim copyright on the words, but I made the image :yahoo_mini:


3862

[Tobi]

It depends on point of view: some experts say Greece has very liberal pension system with high payment, filled from European sources.

I don't disagree, but I'm differentiating between the Greek government and the people. I personally didn't have a clue that Blair and Brown were emptying the coffers of the UK treasury at the time they had their fingers in the till. The EU knew that Greece didn't qualify to join, everyone from the IMF downwards believes that debt relief is the only way forward, but in the meantime old people and children are using soup kitchens and rummaging through mountains of rubbish looking for food. This is a member state of the oh, so fabulous EU, which has decided to protect the banks and punish the people. Ugh.

[fountainhall]

The EU knew that Greece didn't qualify to join.
And where, pray tell, did you get that nugget of innuendo and downright lies? Greece was only able to join the EU because its own government/s had been lying through their teeth - for years! They had been cooking their own books and hiding the results. And that is fact! As the former ECB Chief Economist advised way back in 2011,


Greece was only able to join the euro through deception . . . former European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing said . . . “Greece cheated to get in, and it’s difficult to know how we should deal with cheaters.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-05-26/greece-cheated-to-join-euro-sanctions-since-were-too-soft-issing-says

And how did Greece cheat its way into the euro zone? There's an excellent BBC article from 2012 titled "How 'Magic' made the Greek Debt Disappear before it joined the Euro"


How did this 'magic' work? "Take the Greek state railway. It was losing a billion euros a year," (Greek economist Miranda) Xafa remembers. "The Greek railway had more employees than passengers. A former minister, Stefanos Manos, had said publicly at the time that it would be cheaper to send everyone by taxi."

The authorities used a neat conjuring trick to make the problem vanish. "The (railway) company would issue shares that the government would buy. So it was counted not as expenditure, but as a financial transaction." And it did not appear on the budget balance sheet.

So Greece fulfilled the Maastricht criteria and was admitted to the eurozone on January 1, 2001 - but by 2004 the deception was becoming transparent.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-16834815

I sympathise with the people of Greece who have clearly been through economic hell. But it is ridiculous to blame the EU for that when their own governments had been the liars and cheats for many years, maybe decades, and then used the access to cheap credit afforded them by being members of the EU to borrow to the hilt - when they knew they were so much in debt repayment was well nigh impossible.

[Tobi]

It says a lot about the Brussels elite's ability to do any due diligence that they now claim they didn't know Greece didn't qualify when Goldman Sachs certainly knew!!

Again, I agree, but I'm differentiating between the Greek government and the people. The EU have imposed a level of austerity that even the IMF says it can never recover from. I'm estimating that we'll probably lose 10-20% of our company's business, but I still voted leave, simply because I don't need or want some bloated bureaucracy spanking the people who don't deserve it. I'll leave that to Latin. ;)

[fountainhall]

It says a lot about the Brussels elite's ability to do any due diligence that they now claim they didn't know Greece didn't qualify when Goldman Sachs certainly knew!!
Again your facts seem to be somewhat askew. Greece joined the EU in January 2001 after years of EU examination of its books. Goldman Sachs certainly played a major role thereafter, but there is no proof whatever that it was complicit in assisting Greece hide its debts beforehand. Indeed, a New York Times article on July 13 last year has the headline "Plenty Deserve Blame for Greece's Woes, but Maybe Not Goldman Sachs". It stresses that this Goldman Sachs participation/knowledge is a myth perpetuated by Clinton's Labour Secretary. As the article points out, this -


is such a distortion of what took place in 2000 and 2001
Goldman Sachs certainly made a bundle AFTER the entry into the EU. But as journalist Nick Dunbar wrote in Risk Magazine,


“There is no doubt that Goldman Sachs’s deal with Greece was a completely legitimate transaction under Eurostat rules,” he wrote. “Moreover, both Goldman Sachs and Greece’s public debt division are following a path well trodden by other European sovereigns and derivatives dealers.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/14/business/dealbook/plenty-deserve-blame-for-greeces-woes-but-maybe-not-goldman-sachs.html?_r=0


Again, I agree, but I'm differentiating between the Greek government and the people.
You can't differentiate between a government and the people who voted it in! The Greek governments were out-and-out crooks Their people voted them in. Can you expect these same people NOT to suffer when their government's criminal activity is discovered and things go belly-up? You can't! It was't the EU's fault the Greeks chose to lie and cheat their way into the EU. Even if they had not gone into the EU, the Greek people would have had to bear the same austerity because, as a result of what happened in the first decade of this century, the cookie jar was bound to end up empty and no-one would have bailed them out. If you and I overspend, we pay the consequences. The same is true of nations. If people vote in crooks, they pay in the end. If Brexit ends up a disaster for ordinary folks with increased taxes, no access to EU markets without freedom of movement, no bonus for the health service as PROMISED and now claimed as a MISTAKE by that right-wing self-serving ass Farage - note I merely say "if" - then that is the fault of the people who voted Out, not of Farage, the clown Johnson and their cohorts. The Greek austerity measures are a direct result of its own government's failings - not the EU!

PS: I did not vote only because I was stripped of my vote some 17 years ago under some idiotic UK rules!

[scottish-guy]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kfdZrCc9ng

[arsenal]

I think the Scottish MPs both in Brussels and in Holyrrood are in danger of becoming political and financial beggars such is their supine behaviour. And I.m not just saying that to wind Scottish up. Although that is a bonus.

[scottish-guy]

Well, different people have different ways of making their point - but if you're bemoaning a lack of robustness, try this:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NR8bh7XGPgk

[arsenal]

We (the UK) don't have to rush into anything. Regardless of the bleating of our European 'partners' there is nothing they can do to make us trigger article 50 any earlier than we choose to. That's if it is actually triggered at all.

But the facts remain, Scotland is a part of the UK and despite the powers granted to the Scottish Assembly total and absolute sovereignty remains with the UK parliament. Also, the Scottish people knew this referendum was going to happen before your vote on independence and still chose to remain despite the possibility of a leave vote.

[fountainhall]

Clearly facts don't always fit in with comments made in posts in this forum. The Scottish people could not have known there would be an EU referendum BEFORE their vote on independence. Why? The independence referendum was held in September 2014. Absolutely no-one in the UK had any clue who would win the May 2015 UK election. Indeed, the Conservative Party's win with a majority surprised virtually all the pollsters and all the political commentators who were predicting a hung parliament. In that event, an EU referendum might well not have been held.

[Faranglaw]

Well, different people have different ways of making their point - but if you're bemoaning a lack of robustness, try this:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NR8bh7XGPgk

And here's one you might enjoy.

http://www.ew.com/article/2016/06/28/david-tennant-scottish-trump-insults

[gedykaie]

personally I would like to have stayed in but its two years down the line all those speculators downing the markets and the pound are making life a misery for many,and making my and others well earned holidays more expensive,as for my first minister messrs sturgeon and co I think she should wait and see if any other nations want a vote to follow,heard the dutch are next favourite to leave

[scottish-guy]

With the greatest of respect I don't think you've entirely grasped the situation or the reason that action is required NOW.

What the leaders of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar are jointly trying to do, is strike a deal with the EU during the 2 year "UK" exit negotiations so that the 3 territories do not in fact ever EXIT the EU but in some way REMAIN. This reflects the democratic will of the people in those 3 territories.

There is a "reverse" precedent here in the case of Greenland which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark (a EU member) - wherein Greenland was allowed to secede from the EEC (as it was then) while Denmark itself remain in. Clearly, this would be the other way round in the case of Scot/NIre/Gib and it may turn out to be impossible - but it has to be tested.

The urgency is that we cannot wait to see what happens - if the proposed Brexit goes ahead then in 2 years or so we will all be OUT.

To then have to open negotiations with the EU to get back IN would be much harder in the case of Scotland and I'd suggest harder still for N Ireland, and impossible for Gibraltar - this is why there is only a limited window of opportunity.

Even if the Netherlands were to announce an intention to leave, that could take years - we do not have years before we are dragged OUT.

[Nirish guy]

To be clear the "Leader" of N.I ( The First Minister) is absolutely not trying to strike any deal to remain ( I wish she was), her party ( of which she is also leader) were the main drivers of the Leave campaign here.

The Deputy First Minister ( Sein Fein) is making noise about them trying to work out how N.I remains but I think even they know that as things stand constitutionally they haven't a hope of changing that from the rest of the UK as a whole and their noise is more just all part of their continuing united Ireland push (and is too just more about making hay while the sun shines perhaps in that regard) not unlike Scotland's First Minister too in truth perhaps.

The crazy thing is that our First Minister IS wilfully ignoring the local vote ( which was to remain) and opting to run with the main UK overall vote to leave ( as it suits their view) so it seems democracy can be local when it suits and National when that suits to, I just wish they'd stick a side and stick to it so we all know where we are for longer than 10 minutes at a time !

[scottish-guy]

Hi NIrish - clearly you are closer to your situation than I am (and I certainly don't wish to second guess anything that goes on in your part of the world) but I can assure you there has definitely been contact between the First Minister of Scotland and the Chief Minister of Gibraltar with an intention to include N. Ireland in exploring all possibilites to remain in the EU - if that is what the leadership of N Ireland wishes.

I accept your point that contact with NI may not yet have been made (or perhaps it's been made informally but not been made public?) - however it will be made. From what you say, any approach may be rebuffed and should that be the case it would certainly show a total lack of respect for the result where you are, but that would of course be for your electorate to deal with.

Contact has certainly been made with both the President of the Republic and with the Taoiseach - but this is in regard to eliciting their support within the EU rather than anything to do with uniting north and south.

http://europe.newsweek.com/how-scotland-and-n-ireland-could-retain-eu-membership-474931

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-gibraltar-scotland-taks-to-stay-in-eu-referendum-result-latest-a7106306.html

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/scotland-northern-ireland-and-gibraltar-eye-turbulent-future/

[Nirish guy]

They may well contact Sein Fein who wish to remain and are angling after the PR to show they're actively pursuing that, but if they contact the actual First ministers Office they'll absolutely be chased as they and she were the leaders of the leave campaign, there's no if's or buts about that. They can contact the Deputy First Ministers Office and talk to they're blue on the face but they'll not get anywhere with that.

I'm torn as on one hand I would wish to remain and NI did vote ( 57% i think) to remain, however as a member of the UK and a democrat ( in the main) I do concede ( unlike Scotland perhaps) that we'll probably have to go with the overall UK vote and make the best of a bad job just and faces things out one way of the other just now and we'll see in a few years who was right or not.

[fountainhall]

The entire post-Referendum disaster is far more like a Monty Python sketch than a bunch of supposedly responsible politicians whose primary duty is to look after the fate of the country. It's perfectly clear that with the possible exception of Nicola Sturgeon, no-one - absolutely no-one - had any detailed plan in place in the event that the majority voted for Brexit. Since Friday morning, we have seen panic, cover-ups, billions wiped off world stock markets, sterling at its lowest level for decades - and a political tsunami affecting UK politics that will not be resolved for months.

Even the Bresiteers seem shell-shocked. Boris Johnson MP was nowhere near the house of Commons on Monday when the result was debated. Was he afraid of the reception he'd get - or was he shoring up his base as he plans to be the next PM? The slimeball Farage spent yesterday at the European parliament - the body that must approve the terms of Britain's exit - in no uncertain terms insulting the President and members. Afterwards he told CNN it was just some form of innocent banter - just as he was "too nice a person" to correct the "mistake"/lie spread by him and his colleagues about £350 million per week of savings going to the National Health Service. And now there is serious talk amongst government back-benchers of moves to make a second referendum happen!

They say there is a very fine line between comedy and tragedy. I don't see many people laughing!

[Nirish guy]

"I don't see many people laughing"

Which of course was exactly what Farage said in his EU last hurrah - albeit he meant it in a much more fuck you kind of way of course ie "you used to laugh at me when I said I wanted the UK out of the EU, well, you're not laughing now are you ( you fuckers, I won so FUCK YOU) being the general undertone of his point.

[fountainhall]

Oh dear! The jokes are coming in thick and fast.

Friend told me there is a new slimming product on the market. It's called Brexit. Helps you lose lots of pounds!

The EU now has some free space. About 1 GB!
:rolleyes:

[scottish-guy]

NIrish - again you are closer to the situation but I would have thought that if contact is made with the DFM, it would have to be with the FMs approval or certainly her knowledge? I guess it depends what your FM thinks is more important - the will of the peole or the Rule Britannia lobby?

Anyhow - Nicola seems at least to be getting a hearing - Junker and Martin Schulz have both now agreed to meet her today or tomorrow. Maybe it's those red high heels she wears - but it doesn't work when I do it :(

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36656980

[werner]

This discussion is interesting, but what does it have to do with "Gay Thailand"? Should this discussion be somewhere else?

[Up2U]

PMQs: David Cameron Tells Jeremy Corbyn To Resign For The Good Of The Country
‘For heaven’s sake man, go’
29/06/2016
Ned Simons
David Cameron has told Jeremy Corbyn he should resign as leader of the Labour Party for the good of the country.

Facing the Labour leader across the Commons, the prime minister told him: “It might be in my party’s interest for him to sit there, it’s not in the national interest and I would say, for heaven’s sake man, go.”... (read more)...
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/pmqs-david-cameron-tells-jeremy-corbyn-to-resign-for-the-good-of-the-country_uk_5773ae32e4b0220ef54fc7da?section=

[arsenal]

Throughout this whole saga I have been impressed with the way David Cameron has conducted himself. An exceptional politician in my opinion. Telling Corbyn to go considering the amount of votes he would be worth to the Tories just reaffirms my view.

[scottish-guy]

Just to be clear - this is the same David Cameron who (allegedly) inserted his penis into the mouth of a dead pig and simulated fucking it?

Exceptional is too small a word.

[Up2U]

NYTimes - Brexit proponent's false promises crumbe
June 28, 2016

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/opinion/brexit-proponents-false-promises-crumble.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

[arsenal]

Scottish: Yea, well he's fucking another dead pig now. It's called the EU.

[Surfcrest]

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/boaty-mcboatface-parliament-lessons/482046/

Surely, someone thought this was a dumb idea after the Boaty McBoatface vote...but no
As I said before...this whole democracy thing isn't everything it's cracked up to be.

What I find amazing is that with everything bad that has happened recently, it was blamed somehow on ISIS...even when it wasn't.
If anything can be blamed on ISIS...I think it's this...and you don't hear too much about that on the News huh?
Twisting the whole Syrian Refugee crisis late last year and into this year added to the grievances on immigration.
No one wanted a divided Europe more than ISIS...and a divided world.

If anyone has anything to gain slightly out of all of this, it might just be Canada.
We've gained access to European markets through our long standing trade relationship with Great Britain.
Before the Euro, it was always political when we did business with either France or Great Britain in our strained relationship with Quebec and French Canada.
With the European Union, that divide became blurred and it didn't matter much in so much in Canada anymore.
Now we can reach out to Great Britain and negotiate parallel deals in addition to what we already have established with the Union.
I would imagine the Americans have similar ideas...
I'm not sure how Airbus will fare out of all of this?

The problem with another referendum on the issue, is that it devalues the whole referendum process making the second referendum result even more meaningless than the first, if you deem the first results non-binding. As much as some might wish it were all a dream that they'd wake up from in the morning, the reality is that "what's done is done" and it's time for Great Britain to figure out how to land on their feet from here.

Surfcrest
.

[fountainhall]

As I said before...this whole democracy thing isn't everything it's cracked up to be.
A point I have made consistently in relation to the introduction of democracy to nations which for millennia have had absolute rulers and no history of democracy. If the cradle of democracy, as the UK likes to call itself, can make such a fuck-up of a referendum with such massive national and global consequences which those voting clearly did not take into consideration, how can you expect democracy to solve the problems in a country like China? But that's for another thread.


The problem with another referendum on the issue, is that it devalues the whole referendum process making the second referendum result even more meaningless than the first,
The problem with a second referendum is that it will solve nothing! The root of the European issue in British politics is the Conservative party itself. It goes right back to the pro-European Edward Heath who as Prime Minister took the UK into Europe against the wishes of a very large number of his fellow Conservative MPs and their constituents. Heath was probably better at playing with organs :unknw_mini: than being the leader of the country (a confirmed bachelor, he had been an organ scholar at University!), but he was pretty quickly dumped after losing the next election. Margaret Thatcher was basically anti-European and only reluctantly signed up to the idea when she renegotiated Heath's deal and got a better one. She was ditched, only partly a direct result of Europe, but it had certainly been a constant sore in her side as the pro-Europeans battled with the anti-Europeans. Her successor John Major was pro-European and, like his predecessors, had to fight against backbench revolts specifically over the Europe issue. He lost an election and quit. Now another Conservative leader Cameron has lost the European gamble and fallen on his sword. Since that party and its supporters remain totally split, even if there were a second referendum with a vote to stay in the EU, it would not end the deeply rooted divisions - at least not for another 10 - 15 years when a chunk of the older diehard anti-Europeans have died off!

But the real irony is that the immigration problem at the root on the Referendum was caused not by the Conservatives - but by Tony Blair's Labour Party. In 2004 Blair's Home Secretary Jack Straw agreed to implement his party's policy to permit immigration from Eastern Europe States and to allow them to work straightaway - doing away with the policy adopted by other EU countries which prevented migrants from working for 7 years. Yet little more than 2 years ago, that same Jack Straw admitted in a newspaper article that this was "a spectacular mistake"! Blair's government based its strategy on estimates of between 12,000 and 13,000 arriving. More than 1 million did! So much for governments making decisions in the best interests of its people! Has anyone else in Blair's government admitted this was a humungous mistake? Not that I have read! Another stake in Blair's coffin!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10445585/Labour-made-a-spectacular-mistake-on-immigration-admits-Jack-Straw.html

[arsenal]

Fountainhall: I agree with a lot of what you wrote but it is a little simplistic. You are right about Blairs government getting the immigration issue wrong and it's is actually a bit rich for the French and Germans to be banging on about free movement when they imposed a 7 year moratorium on immigrants from the new European members. But, the biggest problem is neither of the political parties. It is the failure of Europe to understand the British people and the fact that we are an Island Nation. and have all the qualities and faults that that brings.

[cdnmatt]

Guys, where's all the talk about "democracy might not be the way to go" BS coming from?

Just take a look at the HDI. Who scores top? Right, all democratic nations. They sure as hell far surpass dictatorships, because many times those end up in civil war, and it just so happens that's not quite so good for the economy or standard of living.

[fountainhall]

. . . the biggest problem is neither of the political parties. It is the failure of Europe to understand the British people and the fact that we are an Island Nation. and have all the qualities and faults that that brings.
I don't disagree with that. But I submit that monstrous flood of immigration and the right of immigrants to all the benefits of British workers is at the root of the Referendum result. And a second Referendum in the nearish future, won't solve that problem. As for the EU, I do think one positive result of the Referendum is that Mrs. Merkel and her colleagues will actually start to make the reforms they should have been making before their bureaucracy grew into such an unwieldy monster.

[arsenal]

Matt: Democracy is rather a loose expression. Despite the referendum there are many who would and do argue that the UK is not really fully democratic due to our 'first past the post' electoral system. But yes, I agree it sure as hell beats all the other systems. As Winston Churchill once said.

[arsenal]

Fountainhall. I absolutely agree with you. I don't want to go down the path that Scottish thinks I live on but no one has ever explained to why a foreigner should be able to turn up in Britain and be entitled to everything that someone who has lived here their whole life and contributed to is.
But take consolation. Blair more than any other Prime Minister in British history (way more than Thatcher) is universally loathed in his own country by both the left and the right.

[fountainhall]

Just take a look at the HDI.
Humpty Dumpty Index? :D

[cdnmatt]

Humpty Dumpty Index? :D

Well, you can always check out life in Qatar, and see if it measures up to say Canada, I guess.

[fountainhall]

For those of you thoroughly confused about UK politics and the Brexit campaign, try this -

So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.

Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.

Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful. :clapping:

From the Facebook page of Benjamin Timothy Blaine

[Up2U]

Breaking news: Boris Johnson will not stand for PM.

[arsenal]

One good piece of news. Boris is an opportunist politician who never expected to win but rather leave his calling card. Now he finds himself hated by his own colleagues. I said Michael Gove from the beginning and I stick with that. He's got all the qualities required including ruthlessness as he's just stabbed poor Boris with a stiletto.

[scottish-guy]

Interesting that you're looking forward to yet another SCOT as PM :))

I'd have thought that Blair and Brown would have been enough - but now Gove? :))

[arsenal]

Loathed Blair and Brown because of their policies, not their love of haggis and Glenmorangie.

[Up2U]

One good piece of news. Boris is an opportunist politician who never expected to win but rather leave his calling card. Now he finds himself hated by his own colleagues. I said Michael Gove from the beginning and I stick with that. He's got all the qualities required including ruthlessness as he's just stabbed poor Boris with a stiletto.
Theresa May was more impressive in her candidacy announcement. Gove and Johnson now seem to be at odds.

[cdnmatt]

Johnson just quit the race.

Ok, this is just all around fucked. So we have Cameron who campaigned on an "in/out" referendum. He resigned as PM hours after the vote tally, then the next day proceeded to tell everyone how it's not his responsibility how the exit should be negotiated, and that's up to whoever gets elected in October.

Now Johnson, who was one of the main guys in promoting leaving the EU now just dropped out of the race for PM.

So Farage is going to lead the charge here? He's almost dumber than Trump. Ok, maybe not, because Trump is pretty dumb, but he's close.

WTF?

[scottish-guy]

Theresa May was more impressive in her candidacy announcement...

Theresa May is just Margaret Thatcher in drag

[Tobi]

Theresa May is just Margaret Thatcher in drag

If you stand them side-by-side then Sturgeon is obviously the unwanted love-child of Merkel. ;)

[Tobi]

Can you expect these same people NOT to suffer when their government's criminal activity is discovered and things go belly-up? You can't!

I'm afraid I can. I don't believe in visiting the sins of the fathers. I'm happy to leave "vindictive" to those that believe in sky pixies.

[Mancs]

Wonderful quote from Gove: “I am an inconceivable choice as party leader. I don’t want to do it; I wouldn’t do it; it wouldn’t matter how many people asked me to do it - I don’t think there would be very many,” he told The Sunday Times. 2013

[Steve1903]

Wouldn't believe a word any of them say and would be happy enough if somebody shoved explosives up their arses.
and Theresa Thatcher is a shoo in.

[Up2U]

Theresa May is just Margaret Thatcher in drag

Isn’t Gove the reincarnation of Quentin Crisp?