50 Years Ago - Let's Not Forget

[fountainhall]

This month marks an important anniversary. After winning the long revolutionary war, Mao Tse Tung was the undisputed leader of an independent China. Despite the failure of his various campaigns, including the disastrous "Three-Anti" and "Five-Anti" movements to rid the cities of capitalists, "Let the Hundred Flowers Bloom" and the "Great Leap Forward" – in which more than 40 million died of starvation, Mao remained invincible. Yet opposition was growing. In May 1966 he launched the worst of them all in terms of the effect it was to have on the country - the Cultural Revolution.

When the first mini-campagn of the Revolution was launched, calling for the destruction of the "Four Olds"—Old Customs, Old Culture, Old Habits, and Old Ideas, much of the country's millennia-old culture was literally obliterated. To many tens of millions of youngsters - maybe more - Mao was a God. He was their mother and father. Then it became much more violent as children turned against parents, students against teachers, tenants against landlords. The social fabric of the country was being destroyed. Realising he had let the cat out of the bag, two years later Mao tried to rein in the excesses with his "Down to the Countryside" campaign. For more than 6 years, urban youngsters were removed from cities and sent to work with the farmers in the countryside, thus producing what has since been called The Lost Generation. But the Revolution continued.

As Mao became ill, the Gang of Four led by Mao's wife, the former actress Jiang Qing, kept the fires of Revolution burning. A month after Mao's death in 1976, they were finally arrested. Deng Xiao Ping had reemerged for a second time as the power behind the throne, becoming leader of the country in all but name.

I was thinking of this earlier this week as we saw yet again images from North Korea of the elite talking about the latest Kim as their mother and father. And if Mao could mobilise his country's youth to such destruction in 1966, there is no doubt that Kim can do the same 50 years later - if he so wishes. But Mao had crap armed forces. Kim is a nuclear power with a massive army - and Seoul is a mere 195 kms away.

The west continues to suggest that the solution to taming North Korea is held by Beijing. But that supposes not just that Beijing is not concerned about millions of refugees flooding its border - it is, but that China itself is now a settled country - it isn't. The power struggle between the liberals and the leftists continues, aggravated by the numbers of China's elite ensnared by President Xi's war on corruption and concern as to where Xi's sympathies really lie. As reported by The Guardian today, this came to a head a few days ago with a concert to celebrate Mao - and seemingly also the Cultural Revolution - held in the politically symbolic Great Hall of the People. At one point during the concert, a banner appeared -


People of the world unite to defeat American invaders and their running dogs!
One American writer based in Beijing says -


the show has exposed the chasm that still exists between those who view the Cultural Revolution as a catastrophe for which the Communist party has yet to fully atone, and a much smaller number of neo-Maoists who believe Mao has been unfairly demonised for what they continue to view as a golden period.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/10/cultural-revolution-anniversary-show-power-struggle-rumours-mao-china

[goji]

I suspect North Korea is a crap military power that just happens to have a few Hiroshima sized bombs, which they will be unable to deliver, if the Americans act quickly enough.

There may be an argument for taking out North Korea before they develop H-bombs that fit on missiles. If the Chinese had any sense, they would negotiate a deal with the US and jointly work with the US to deal with the problem. Even if that means a joint invasion. After all, which of their neighbours poses the biggest threat ?
I cannot guarantee they would reach such a conclusion though.

You are right that the lessons should not be forgotten though.

[fountainhall]

If the Chinese had any sense, they would negotiate a deal with the US and jointly work with the US to deal with the problem. Even if that means a joint invasion. After all, which of their neighbours poses the biggest threat ?
I cannot guarantee they would reach such a conclusion though.
At present China is certainly the key. China is the North's main trading partner. China doesn't need that trade, but it does need a North that is quiescent. A sabre-rattling North is acceptable as long as remains merely words or a few occasional incidents. I suspect that is why China is not prepared to take further action for now.

We also must remember that China's leadership always looks way into the future, unlike most governments in the west which have hanging over them the threat of the next election throwing its leaders out of power. Who knows how it sees relations with the North as Kim grows in power? But it will certainly have some initial planning to tackle a more aggressive North, as presumably has the US. The real question, though, is: can those plans be put into effect effectively before the North hits Seoul with a couple of nukes. That's 10.5 million people just minutes away from the launch sites? Of course that would mean the end of the North, but crazy people don't act in a rational way. And brain-washed people just do what they are told, as the Cultural Revolution proved.

[arsenal]

It's a little too late to act on North Korea. The time was when the middle Kim was in charge, he by all accounts was a shrewd political operator. Short, fat baby Kim lacks all that is required to be a dictator in charge for decades on end. I predict he will be the last of the dynasty to hold power.

[Moses]

I predict he will be the last of the dynasty to hold power.

I heard rumors what he has sister for dynasty's backup

[fountainhall]

Short, fat baby Kim lacks all that is required to be a dictator in charge for decades on end. I predict he will be the last of the dynasty to hold power.
I wish I could agree. Two facts don't support that. The first is that he has both an older brother and younger sister - plus a half brother and a half sister. He has been married for a few years and apparently has a daughter. A son will no doubt be on the way sooner or later.

Second, have you seen the numerous television interviews with not only the North Korean public but recent defectors from the North? The indoctrination of the entire population is probably the worst and most complete for centuries. Sure there may be the odd few here and there who are able actually to think for themselves. But if you annihilate the Kim family, the very "heart and soul" of the nation responsible for all the "good" in people's lives, what do you put in its place? How do you avoid a Jonestown massacre on a monstrous scale - but this time self-inflicted?

I also have a suspicion - with nothing to back it up - that he does not wield absolute power. There is an element of a puppet about him that makes me believe there are power-brokers behind the throne who will do absolutely everything they can to hold on to that power.