Betting on the Republican presidential nominee

As I've said consistently, Trump won't be the Republican presidential nominee. For aficionados of American politics here's Nate Silver and his team's assessment of the state of play http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/doe ... te-chance/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-trump-cruz-or-rubio-have-the-best-pre-debate-chance/)

[Surfcrest]

It really boils down to who has the best chance as the Republican nominee to beat either Clinton or Sanders, the two Democratic front runners. Whatever science you want to use, it looks like only Trump out of the Republican line up has any sort of chance with his ideas of making America strong again and funding his own campaign, rather than from lobbyists. I still like the thirty dollar deal!

Surfcrest

It really boils down to who has the best chance as the Republican nominee to beat either Clinton or Sanders, the two Democratic front runners. Whatever science you want to use, it looks like only Trump out of the Republican line up has any sort of chance with his ideas of making America strong again and funding his own campaign, rather than from lobbyists. I still like the thirty dollar deal!The rest of the world will look forward to an even more entertaining time than when Dubya was President if that came to pass - but it won't

[Dalewood]

Anybody else but Silver, and there would be tears of laughter rolling down my cheeks. Between immigration and the TPP, there is a big split in the GOP. Do not underestimate Trump and Carson.

[Surfcrest]

Oh, it's too bad my pal kommentariat (a.k.a Guest) isn't still with us to see Donald Trump taking the Republican GOP for a lot of the same reasons that were relevant back in November...and will still be relevant this coming November.

Surfcrest

[oldfarang]

Go Trump

[cdnmatt]

Go Trump

Please don't tell me you're serious. You really want Trump commander-in-chief of the largest and most powerful military ever known to human civilization, plus also have the launch codes to the world's largest nuclear arsenal?

For some obscure reason, I don't think that's a very good idea.

Now I don't much like Hilary either, but at least she's part of the "ole boys group", has the necessary experience on the world stage, and will keep the ship sailing on its steady course.

Like it or not, the US is doing pretty decent these days. Unemployment is at an acceptable rate, stock market strong, US dollar is strong, etc. It's definitely doing better than when Bush left office, that's for sure. Honestly, as long as we get a President (ie. Hilary) that will keep the US humming along on its current course, I'm a happy man. Last thing I want to see is someone come in and fuck it all up, which is pretty much guaranteed if Trump ends up living in the White House.

[cdnmatt]

PS. Not to mention, Hilary has already had all her dirty laundry aired in public. Hell, I think there's been 8 separate Benghazi committees and hearings now. She's been in the public spotlight for decades, so we now all there is to know about her.

Trump on the other hand... I've heard he serves up some shitty steaks and wines. :)

[oldfarang]

Now I don't much like Hilary either, but at least she's part of the "ole boys group"

Really, don't know which country you are from. I have lived and worked in many around the world.
Dear old established USA, like lying Hilary, they are all the same.Paid and bought for.

I would rather see Bernie then Hilary becoming president, but that won't happen.

Would Trump be the perfect president, GOD of course not, at least he is not bought and paid for (like Hilary is and Bernie is NOT), so maybe a real change.
Probably not, because I expect he will be shot or have an accident sooner or later.

You tell me what is wrong with a guy who puts his own people first and will get along with Putin and China (both gave their support to him).
Maybe you think Trump is the anti-christ, well Bush and Obama where also accused of that.

In my heart and mind I am a real lefty, but with a realistic view on the world.

AND IT IS TIME TO KICK ASS, so GO Trump

[francois]

Voting for Trump is self defeating!

"Cutting off the nose to spite the face" is an expression used to describe a needlessly self-destructive over-reaction to a problem: "Don't cut off your nose to spite your face" is a warning against acting out of pique, or against pursuing revenge in a way that would damage oneself more than the object of one's anger.[1]

Nonetheless, the Germans voted for Hitler as he appealed to their basest instincts as do many people in USA who can't think for themselves.

[cdnmatt]

You tell me what is wrong with a guy who puts his own people first

You really think he puts Americans first? Just wait a few months when his dirty laundry begins getting aired in public. Remember what happened to Romney in 2012? During the primaries everyone stayed pretty quiet, but come the general election things like Bain Capital and the hiring of illegal immigrants became pretty large focal points.

You can expect the same to happen shortly to Trump, whereas with Hilary, there isn't really any more dirt to dig up on her. Again, I don't like Hilary either, but she's a whole lot better than Trump. Personally, I wish Obama could just stay as the President. I hope history treats him well, because I think he's done a stand up job. The US was in shambles when he first took office in 2009, and now it's humming along just fine.



and will get along with Putin and China (both gave their support to him).

Most likely, Putin and Xi Jinping like him because he's a complete moron, and they can easily run him over. He can't even handle a FOX News reporter or an MSNBC moderator, so of course Russia and China would love to see Trump in power.

[Smiles]

As I've said consistently, Trump won't be the Republican presidential nominee. For aficionados of American politics here's Nate Silver and his team's assessment of the state of play http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/doe ... te-chance/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/does-trump-cruz-or-rubio-have-the-best-pre-debate-chance/)
Yes, and that went well didn't it? Nothing like a little consistency to get oneself bitten in the ass.

And nothing like a nominee whose charming character traits include blatant lying, never ending bombast, massive pandering (to Lowest Common Denominators), goading the same LCD's to beat non-Trumpers up, megalomania at it's worst, nationalist authoritarianism, anti-intellectualism on every possible topic, racism unchained, bigoted regarding everyone accept white males who are uneducated and LCD's, know-nothing-ism par excellence, a school yard bully, a throwback nativist (when he wants to be: see above 'pandering'), etc etc etc.

Should be an interesting 5 months. Amuricans ... gird thy loins.

[Khor tose]

Yes, and that went well didn't it? Nothing like a little consistency to get oneself bitten in the ass.

And nothing like a nominee whose charming character traits include blatant lying, never ending bombast, massive pandering (to Lowest Common Denominators), goading the same LCD's to beat non-Trumpers up, megalomania at it's worst, nationalist authoritarianism, anti-intellectualism on every possible topic, racism unchained, bigoted regarding everyone accept white males who are uneducated and LCD's, know-nothing-ism par excellence, a school yard bully, a throwback nativist (when he wants to be: see above 'pandering'), etc etc etc.

Should be an interesting 5 months. Amuricans ... gird thy loins.


Great description. Kind of sounds like you too could be a candidate.

[Smiles]

Go Trump
And this, written by a Republican (i.e. NYT columnist David Brooks):


"Donald Trump is epically unprepared to be president. He has no realistic policies, no advisers, no capacity to learn. His vast narcissism makes him a closed fortress. He doesn’t know what he doesn’t know, and he’s uninterested in finding out. He insults the office Abraham Lincoln once occupied by running for it with less preparation than most of us would undertake to buy a sofa. He is a childish man running for a job that requires maturity. He is an insecure boasting little boy whose desires were somehow arrested at age 12."

And then, talking about 'age 12', there's always a KhorToast, burning, in some closet.

[cdnmatt]

Problem is though, Trump could actually win this thing, eh? So far, he's beaten all odds so no reason to think he can't take the presidency. I think it's unlikely, because I think the media will begin slaughtering him during the general election, but who knows... after all, Americans did vote Bush in twice.

I don't really like Hillary either, but at least with her, she a) has the experience for the job, b) is intelligent enough to surround herself with good advisors, c) has the temperment to actually listen to those advisors, and d) is part of the "establishment" so will come with a lot of strings attached to her.

Now I admit, that's not a great package, but it's far better than Trump, because who knows what the hell he's going to do. According to him, he's apparently God's gift to humanity, and could fly off the handle at any time.

[cdnmatt]

Hey, look at that, apparently North Korea is throwing their support behind Trump now too.

Definitely better elect him as the next US President now...

If Trump becomes President... I don't know, I guess I'm settling into Khon Kaen for longer than expected?

[fountainhall]

You really think he puts Americans first? Just wait a few months when his dirty laundry begins getting aired in public. Remember what happened to Romney in 2012? During the primaries everyone stayed pretty quiet, but come the general election things like Bain Capital and the hiring of illegal immigrants became pretty large focal points.
Good prediction, Matt! Now it has started. The shit is hitting the fan big time.

[cdnmatt]

Yep, and this is just the beginning. It was worst than I even originally thought, since the new finance reports were filed. Trump has what? $1.3 million tucked away for his campgaign? Hillary has what? Over $100 million I think, right?

She's going to wipe the floor with Trump. The Republicans may lose the House due to Trump in this election, which would be shitty in my opinion. I don't like either, Hillary to Trump, but I would choose Hillary to be in the White House any day. However, I'd prefer not to see Democrats control all three houses of parliament either.

[Smiles]

The Donald seems heavily into catching ever twist and turn and arabesque of the Corruption Waltz ... and it's still months before the November election day. His supporters will shrug it off as if it was nothing, as they have done for nearly a year now ~ the quintessential blinkered herd.



Julie Bykowicz and Chad Day, The Associated Press
Published Tuesday, June 21, 2016 10:14AM EDT

NEW ORLEANS -- Donald Trump's campaign likes to keep it in the family.
When Trump flies, he uses his airplane. When he campaigns, he often chooses his properties or his own Trump Tower in New York City, which serves as headquarters. His campaign even buys Trump bottled water and Trump wine.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee has been on the campaign trail for a year now, and federal finance reports detail a campaign unafraid to co-mingle political and business endeavours in an unprecedented way -- even as he is making appeals for donations.

Unlike in the primary when Trump touted his ability to pay his own way, he has been on an urgent fundraising quest for more than a month. His campaign began June with $1.3 million in the bank, compared with the $42 million presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had amassed.Through the end of May, Trump's campaign had plunged at least $6.2 million back into Trump corporate products and services, a review of Federal Election Commission filings shows (http://www.fec.gov/fecviewer/CandidateCommitteeDetail.do?tabIndex=1&candidateCommitteeId=P80001571). That's about 10 per cent of his total campaign expenditures.
Wealthy political candidates in the past have walled off their business from their campaigns, but Trump embraces his companies. Public documents indicate his revenue has risen along with his presidential aspirations.
While Trump's controversial comments have cost his businesses money -- for example, the PGA Tour recently announced it would move its World Golf Championship from a Trump course to one in Mexico City -- Trump reported in documents filed in May with federal regulators that his revenue had increased by roughly $190 million over the previous 17 months.
Trump's campaign didn't respond to detailed questions about the intermingling of his businesses and campaign.
Trump isn't the first high-profile politician to run a campaign while managing large corporate assets. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and presidential contender Steve Forbes both ran companies bearing their name.
Both took great care to carefully separate their businesses and their campaigns, their former aides said, citing the complex maze of campaign finance regulations about using corporate resources. For instance, federal rules require a company to charge their campaigns fair-market value.
The Trump campaign-- funded during the primary contest mostly by loans Trump made-- appears to be properly documenting its use of the businessman's assets in federal reports, leaving a record of his campaign's finances and their impact on his self-reported financial largesse.
Some of Trump's revenue bump appears to be directly traced to his campaign. TAG Air Inc., the holding company for his airplane, had $3.7 million in revenue in the most recent reporting period -- an amount that came largely from the campaign.
Trump's relentless product branding while on the campaign trail might be helping, too. Trump Ice LLC, the bottled water company, brought in income of more than $413,000 in the most recent reporting period, up from $280,000.
In the beginning months of his presidential bid, Trump paid about $350,000 out of pocket to rent campaign space in his own building and to cover the salaries of some of the Trump Organization employees he'd moved onto his campaign staff. FEC reports show the campaign reimbursed him for those costs. In May, the campaign paid Trump an additional $45,000 for more rent and payroll.
Trump also lent his campaign more than $46 million over the past year -- money he has largely not recouped, according to FEC reports.
The campaign has paid about $520,000 to Trump Tower Commercial LLC and the Trump Corporation for rent and utilities. The campaign also paid $423,000 to Trump's private Mar-a-Lago Club in south Florida for rent and catering and an additional $135,000 in rent and utilities to Trump Restaurants LLC.
The campaign paid out $26,000 in January to rent out a facility at Trump National Doral, his golf course in Miami. He'd held an event in the gold-accented ballroom there in late October. The campaign paid almost $11,000 to Trump's hotel in Chicago.
Even $4.7 million the campaign has spent on hats and T-shirts has a tie to Trump. The provider, Ace Specialties, is owned by a board member of son Eric Trump's charitable foundation. << http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trump-s-campaign-plunges-6-million-into-trump-companies-review-says-1.2954905 >>

[Surfcrest]

And so...here we go! The pollsters were calling for a Clinton landslide...but so far, it's anything but.

Surfcrest

[Smiles]

Well well ... the USA has managed, this very evening, to elect an utter moron as President.
This is not going to end well.

As mentioned above, sort of: " ... Should be an interesting (4 years). Amuricans, gird thy loins ... "

[Old git]

There is a weird paradox in politics - they so often deliver the opposite to that expected..

Obama, the first black president, has presided over an increase in racial tensions

Blair's 'Labour' government greatly widened the rich/poor divide

Thatcher actually increased welfare spending

Trump may be an odious narcissist, but he also knows how to run a business, which is a rare thing in US politics.

Judge his deeds in office, not the prospectus..

[Surfcrest]

4122

[fountainhall]

Judge his deeds in office, not the prospectus..
In all my years, I have never known any candidate for Presidential/Prime Ministerial office spew out such a bucketful of filth and shit about ethnic groups, the LGBT community, women, the existing President, the country's allies, tearing up treaties (Iran) signed in tandem with a handful of other countries, and so on - and at the same time flood the airwaves with so many downright lies just in order to win. Granted the Democrats totally blew what should have been their chance to get the Presidency and the Senate and secure a liberal majority on the Supreme Court. Now, whatever Trump does, there is a deep-rooted split allied to fear in much of America. And whatever he does, you can bet that unless some of the present judges live into their 90s, the Supreme Court will be ruled by right-wing dogmatists for a generation or more. That will just be part of his legacy.

The prospectus was basically about jobs and racism. Do Americans have such short memories? Don't they remember all the jobs lost in the 2008 crash? That unemployment is now down below 5%? Or that Obama and Clinton together added 50%+ more jobs than the total in the Bush/Reagan years?

Deeds in office? Some aren't prepared to wait. Little wonder that the Canadian Immigration website crashed on news of his election and even New Zealand has had far more citizenship enquiries over the last 36 hours!

[Surfcrest]

I think if you look at the electoral map, you'll see that support for Trump came from a wide array of sources and so whether you like him or not, change was on the menu and that wasn't something Hillary Clinton had anything to offer. I think, if it wasn't Trump...it would probably have been another anti-Obama candidate from the Right. As much as I wish it had of been Bernie Sanders, I think that overwhelming Right vote was a clear sign that America today isn't ready for that.

So it is what it is and what is done cannot be undone, so America has to look forward and I think Trump might be a positive surprise, despite all the nonsense you've heard already through the campaign and well beyond.

I'd be more worried about the Right with control over almost everything now and the mess they could whip up on the back of some of the ideas Trump has already come up with. Fortunately, Trump doesn't have a track record of listening to other people and doing what other people want him to do. Whatever he's asked to do, by the other people in Washington he's already told the world he has no respect for, whether they're Democrat or Republican..I think he'll follow his own agenda and to continue accomplishing things based on the same successful strategy that got him the Nomination and then the Presidency.

He won the election, whether anyone likes him or not, he should be allowed to go ahead and do what the electoral process says he can go ahead and do.

Surfcrest

[cdnmatt]

Always thought Americans couldn't go dumber than Bush, but apparently I was wrong.

What a mockkery of the White House and such a prestigous position that demands respect.

Oh well, I guess the positive is late show comedians won't have to struggle for material for at least 4 years.

[cdnmatt]

sO FAR, tRUMP'S APPOINTMENTS HAVE BEEN TERRIFYING. tHIS FUCKEN DIPSHIT IS GOING TO END UP STARTING wwiii, AND MAYBE EVEN CAUSE THE EXTINCTION OF THE HUMAN SPECIES. i WISH i COULD SAY i WAS HOKING OR BEING MELODRAMATIC, BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS ACTUALLY ON THE TABLE NOW.

kET'S JUST HOPE HE FUCKS UP REALLY BADLY REALLY QUICKLY, AND GET IMPREACHED IN SHORT ORDER.
EE

[Smiles]

sO FAR, tRUMP'S APPOINTMENTS HAVE BEEN TERRIFYING. tHIS FUCKEN DIPSHIT IS GOING TO END UP STARTING wwiii, AND MAYBE EVEN CAUSE THE EXTINCTION OF THE HUMAN SPECIES. i WISH i COULD SAY i WAS HOKING OR BEING MELODRAMATIC, BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS ACTUALLY ON THE TABLE NOW.

kET'S JUST HOPE HE FUCKS UP REALLY BADLY REALLY QUICKLY, AND GET IMPREACHED IN SHORT ORDER.
EE
Dem ol' annoying cap keys, eh? Or ... trying very very hard to prove one is blind, I presume?

[fountainhall]

One thing that really bugged me during the campaign were the blond-haired females who appeared on the television current affairs programmes as apologists for Trump. He was the whiter-than-white bambi as far as they were all concerned and their screeching rhetoric all but ruined many a panel discussion. At least they'll disappear now that he's mistakenly got the job, I thought (I for one don't believe he ever wanted it - it was just a power-play thing to prove he could get very close to the top and would eventually turn his extra celebrity into a tv network or some other money-grabbing ploy). No way. These harpies are still there all but looking like barbie dolls on life support with Trump's hands inside them manipulating their mouths and eyes.