New Elderly Centre / Scotland Discussion

Punters >>> Desperadoes
Desperadoes >>> PensionersSpeaking of which (and in the context of adding - or not adding - up) I see that new wee lassie didn't do so well in the Scottish leaders' debate, and her figures about spending and saving are somewhat "rubbery".

[scottish-guy]

Kommie, yet again (in a vain attempt to rile me), you not only display but actually FLAUNT your ignorance on Scottish politics!

According to YouGov, 56% rated "the wee lassie" as having won the Scottish leader's debate - with the Labour leader in Scotland (surely the only undergraduate ever to attend University for 9 years and finally leave without a degree), trailing on a mere 13%.

In the UK debate she was widely judged on the poll of polls to have won that too, with the SNP (the UK's third largest party) gaining a further 3000 members in 48hrs and English voters taking to social media to say they wished they could vote for her. She has a net approval rating of +48 against both Cameron and Miliband on around -25

So, in view of the above and with the SNP at 49% in the latest poll and apparently heading for a landslide (against Labour on 25%), she seems to be doing rather well despite not having the Kommie seal of approval!

Consequently, it's far from surprising that the Unionist parties have panicked, firstly resorting to a (very quickly debunked) smear story and currently to scaring OAPs over pensions in a Scotland with full fiscal autonomy. The irony of this is that FFA is exactly what was promised by the Unionists almost on the eve of the Referendum when they feared they might lose - the infamous "Vow". Six months later though, they proclaim that FFA would be a catastrophe :)) (Incidentally, I would have thought that being a Brit Nat as you clearly are, you'd be enthusiastically in favour of FFA for Scotland - given that we are apparently such a terrible burden on the English purse)

Now, I'm more than willing to rip the Unionist financial figures to shreds as well - but I suggest that you bait me elsewhere rather than disrupt this thread further with your Daily Telegraph-type misinformation.

Pip Pip, dear boy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... wrong.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11483905/Nicola-Sturgeon-admits-independence-oil-figures-were-wrong.html)

LOL Scotty. I think of the new wee lassie as her namesake. You know -Nicola Murray

[scottish-guy]

How dreadful not to have predicted a temporary downturn in the price of oil in 2014 - TWO YEARS before it would have mattered anyway (Scotland would not have become independent until late 2016 at the earliest). Perhaps you'd give us the benefit of your expertise and tell us what the price will be from late 2016 onwards, when it would actually have been relevant. Unlike yourself I'm not an Oil Economist, but I do know that a litre of diesel was ┬г1.35 before the downturn, ┬г1.06 during it, and ┬г1.19 now - so to my uneducated and simplistic eye, it kinda looks like there's a fair chance the oil price will be back where it was (and climbing) before too long.

Anyhoo - isn't it just as well that we voted NO and stuck with the Daily Telegraph hero - Gideon Osborne - who has missed every financial target he has ever set and who, after 5 years of soaking the poor to provide tax cuts to his fellow multi-millionaires, has actually managed to INCREASE the national debt. We are certainly "Better Together" right enough, I'm almost orgasmic.

BTW, Osborne's oil revenue forecasts were wrong too - and as for their "independent" OBR ( described by that virulent Scottish Nationalist Lord Alistair Darling (watch that space) as a "branch of the Conservative party ") they got THEIR oil price forecast (from 2011) wrong by a factor of 17.

Meantime, with this "catastrophic collapse in the price of oil", oil- dependent Saudi Arabia and even OPEC must both be shite-ing themselves mustn't they? Oh wait, they don't seem to be. Closer to home, the Norwegians must surely be crawling to the IMF for a bail out, but wait - they are still better off than the UK, how can that possibly be?

In Scotland we are told that the temporary fall in the price of oil makes us an economic basket case (hang on - the same people were telling us we were already a basket case when the price of oil was high :)) ) and that FFA (promised in The Vow) would now result in a "black hole" of ┬г7.6 billion. Quick, ABANDON SHIP, ABANDON SHIP!

What they omit to mention (and your beloved media somehow fail to point out) is that our CURRENT fiscal black hole (i.e our population share of UK fiscal deficit of ┬г95-100 billion) is actually MORE than this doomsday scenario.

Let me give you some friendly advice Kommie - quit believing the UK mainstream media on anything to do with the Scottish political situation - it's like believing what you read in Pravda (except Pravda occasionally print the truth).

And here's some free advice to the English - you do realise that puddle of oil you've just discovered in Kent will set your country on the road to ruin just as surely as the North Sea oil fields are apparently such a terrible burden to Scotland - if you take my advice, just put a cork in that gusher and forget all about it

Surfcrest - I'd suggest these exchanges (not instigated by me, you'll notice) needs moved to the Scotland thread (subtitle: The Ravings of Kommie) in the Everything Else forum.

Tootle Pip, Kommie

quit believing the UK mainstream media on anything to do with the Scottish political situationAs you know I only believe the bookies who - you will recall - were telling us all for months and months that the referendum would fail.

If, by the way, my "attempt to rile" you was "in vain" I'm not sure why you devoted so much bandwidth to being "the lady that doth protest too much"

[scottish-guy]

In that case:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-parliamentary-election/most-seats

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-snp

And, BTW you haven't riled me, you've amused me - it's a subject I'm very happy posting about - but here is not the place, so kindly stop it until Surfy moves it over.

:))

[attachment=0:234cx4kp]image_388023776.jpg[/attachment:234cx4kp]

In that case:
blah blah blah
blah blah blahYou clearly fail to understand my motives, scotty.

I know - all the research shows - that people do not make complex decisions - nationalism, say, or religion, or often politics - based on facts. They are based on some emotional engagement, and you don't change someone's emotional engagement except through the emotions. Hence religious conversions. I know I will never, through force of argument, change Surfcrest's deeply held beliefs about drug addiction. I'm not going to change yours about Scottish independence. Each set of beliefs forms a paradigm (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm), when facts are invoked they are simply confirmation bias (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias), and the only way you (or Surfcrest) will change your mind about your emotionally held belief is through a paradigm shift - also known as a conversion experience. That's me being a sceptic.

And to point up the difference between scepticism and cynicism (people like me are often mis-called cynical when we are actually being sceptical), were I a cynic I would be posting any old tosh, true or false, just because I know it would (like Pavolov's dogs) set your juices running. If you reflect on this thread you might very well say that that's what's going on. For my part I couldn't possibly comment.

[Tiktak63]

For what it's worth I thought Sturgeon was really poor, particularly in the second debate. She was asked stuff that she should have been able to swat away rather easily but struggled to land any blows against moderate to shite opposition. Big question having watched those debates would be, why is Patrick Harvie not leader of the Greens rather than that unbelievably unconvincing woman Bennet?

[scottish-guy]

On your first point, you're entitled to your opinion - but as I've said, 56% declared her the winner of the STV debate with Murphy on a mere 13%, so maybe you have to accept that your view is in a small minority. There was no poll for the BBC debate. Furthermore, you don't appear to have taken account of the fact that the BBC Moderator allowed a situation to persist throughout the debate where the Unionist parties acted in concert i.e. 4 against 1, with Murphy allowed to rant at will.

On your second point, yes, Partick Harvie us very good but the Green Party and the Scottish Green Party are two completely separate and autonomous parties, unlike Scottish Labour which does not technically even exist (no such registered political party - it's a mere "accounting unit" of the Labour Party). Therefore he could not be leader of the Green Party as he is not a member. Incidentally he is not the leader of the SG party in the conventional sense - he is co-convenor with someone else whose name I can not even recall.

This is politics - it's all about emotion. Facts have nothing to do with it. That's why there are few "swing" voters https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FvyGyd ... e=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FvyGydc8no&feature=youtu.be)

The best recent discussion (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5458b8b6-de2e-11e4-8d14-00144feab7de.html#axzz3X30nqVTG) about Scottish politics and SNP politicians is in this weekend's Financial Times: "Another good technique is to denounce politics as a тАЬboysтАЩ clubтАЭ. Of course, if you are going to play this card, it does help to be a woman. Step forward, Nicola Sturgeon. SheтАЩs different: sheтАЩs definitely not a boy and sheтАЩs not even standing for Westminster at the election (although she has done in the past). But again, can you really claim outsider status if you are first minister of Scotland, a former Scottish health minister and someone who first stood for election to Westminster when she was 21 and has been in the Scottish parliament from its first day? In other words, sheтАЩs an accomplished operator and a season-ticket holder in the political class.

"The same can be said of Alex Salmond, former Scottish first minister, 23-year Westminster veteran, and a man with a legitimate claim to being the most effective politician in Britain. Indeed, perhaps his greatest skill is that after eight years in power in Scotland, he has still managed to position the SNP as an insurgency."

Speaking of opinion polls, Mike Smithson is reporting that the latest Panelbase Sunday Times Scotland poll finds 51% saying they'd vote No in a new independence referendum to 42% who'd vote Yes, the biggest gap since the referendum.

[Tiktak63]

s-g: many of the people voting in these polls will automatically back their own guy regardless of how shit he/she was on the night. As there is going to be a clear swing to SNP at this election then I could have predicted how the poll would turn out. I was a YES last year and will be going SNP (first time ever) in May but nevertheless I was disappointed with how the debate turned out. Truth be told, Harvie and the tory bitch were best speakers in the second debate. That said, nothing any of them said would have changed my vote one way or another.

I'm not stupid, they are all liars. I vote whichever way suits my motives.

[joe552]

So what would be your prediction for the final outcome? Labour/SNP? Tories/UKIP? Lib Dem annihilation?

[Tiktak63]

So what would be your prediction for the final outcome? Labour/SNP? Tories/UKIP? Lib Dem annihilation?


UK as a whole: I had thought tories would get a small majority but for some reason they are going down in the polls. Just don't think England will vote for Milliband when push comes to shove so I will stick with no overall majority or small tory majority. Possibly between tory and lib dem they will have enough to go again but it may all fall apart. Two years in and the tories will have to deal with the EU referendum and also deal with the removal of Cameron as he is going to chuck it anyway. They cannot let him stay in place until the next election. There will be all sorts of shenanigans from those seeking to replace him so I think the whole thing will go tits up before 5 years are up.

Scotland: Is fairly clear SNP will get unprecedented amount of seats this time around. I just do not see them getting the quoted 42+ seats being bandied around just now. I reckon some tactical voting will reduce that to about 35 seats. This disaster for Labour will be hailed as a great result as it wasn't as bad as many had said it would be. =))

I do however confidently predict that the brainwashed British voting public will vote for the same set of big party, two faced, self serving, money grubbing, lying, corrupt thieving bastards they always vote for no matter how much they continue to fuck up the country whilst lining their own pockets. I hate big party politics, I hate liars, I hate thieves, I hate the naivety that makes folk elect the same scumbag wankers time after time regardless of what they do.
Safe to say, either way I won't be happy with the result. X(

[scottish-guy]

I agree with most of Tiktak's analysis of how the UK election is likely to pan out.

A year or two ago I would have put money on a Tory/UKIP coalition - the percentages still add up (say, 35 + 16) so they could validly claim to have majority support between them, but it now looks as if UKIP will get 5 seats at most, so the HoC numbers don't stack up with Labour & SNP both now committed to voting against any Tory Queen's Speech. Looks like a non-starter, so barring a big Conservative surge late in the polls & the Lib Dems getting a disproportionale seat tally - the Tories look like being on the way out irrespective of whether they are the largest party or not.

The Unionist media are now, in a desperate attempt to shut out the SNP, trying to spin 2 possible scenarios apart from the obvious (and IMHO still the most likely) one of a Labour minority propped up by the SNP in an informal basis

i) A Lab/Lib coalition or other kind of deal - but this was resurrected on the basis on a couple of polls last week which showed Labour gaining 4 or 5 points, and that apparent swing has now been reversed in the latest polls. So, (again barring late surges for either of these parties) I can't see the numbers stacking up to effectively run a Govt. Sure, they could get a Queens Speech through (because SNP would not vote against), but the day to day running of a minority Govt would be very difficult with the Govt poised for potential defeat on each and every vote. Plus the Lib Dems have been the hand-maidens of austerity for the last 5yrs, and allying with them would be anathema to many traditional Labour voters.

ii) A "Grand Coalition" of Con/Lab/Lib. Well, the numbers obviously stack up (the Libs only needed to make it look good) - but if Labour went with this they'd be utterly finished not only in Scotland (where they are going to be routed anyway) but from Manchester upwards and would never form another Govt again.

On Tictak's point about supporters invariably voting that their candidate "won", well we know that Tictak - BUT on that basis why then did Murphy slump to 13% and Lib Dems to <1% when the party standings are ~27% Lan and ~6% Lib. One presumes that a reputable polling organisation like YouGov knows how to put together a balanced panel (assuming that was their brief). I am not a huge fan of Sturgeon - she routinely allows herself to be bullied and knocked off track in a way that Salmond very rarely did, but her advantage is that she also appeals to a section of voters whom (we are told) Salmond alienated (i.e. women).

Moving on to Kommie's points, I can't disagree with much of what he says (and I'm not overly concerned about polls on Independence as there is not going to be another Referendum unless people endorse one in a future Scottish GE), however I do object to the use of the word "insurgency" in relation to the SNP (yes, I realise he's quoting). "Insurgency" in the context of the current world situation has violent connotations - and as Salmond has said, throughout the Referendum no-one even suffered so much as a nose-bleed.

I find this satirical video highly amusing, but it may be lost on those not very familar with the Scottish political scene and who do not know that Jim Murphy (the head of Labours scottish accounting unit) revels in portraying himself as a former glue-sniffer and current Irn Bru drinking, football supporting Jim the Lad (bizarrely thinking people will somehow relate to that). Nevertheless it's extremely well made for an amateur production:

[youtube:12bgjcn3]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afRE3RwLwaE[/youtube:12bgjcn3]

I do however confidently predict that the brainwashed British voting public will vote for the same set of big party, two faced, self serving, money grubbing, lying, corrupt thieving bastards they always vote for no matter how much they continue to fuck up the country whilst lining their own pockets. I hate big party politics, I hate liars, I hate thieves, I hate the naivety that makes folk elect the same scumbag wankers time after time regardless of what they do.(Would you care to share with us the names of Western democracies that do not conform to the stereotype you have painted?