This time may be different

[ikarus]

I carefully watch the political situation in Thailand and this time it may be different. My contacts in Thailand tells me that this New Year may not be so happy in Thailand. Be careful and watch your step.

[Nirish guy]

Would you care to perhaps post information that is actually useful (if you have any) as opposed to just a random post scare mongering and stating the bleeding obvious that things might ( or might not) get a bit unruly in Thailand at some point in the future weeks as lets face it it doesn't take a fortune teller to work that out now does it.

[cdnmatt]

I may not know much, but I do know if there was planned terrorist attacks or a coup or whatever, some farang posting on SGT wouldn't know about it.

[ikarus]

I may not know much, but I do know if there was planned terrorist attacks or a coup or whatever, some farang posting on SGT wouldn't know about it.
Some farangs may not know but I know. Be warned. If you still did not figure out who is who in Thailand vis-a-vis foreigners, here is a quote from just finished
fiery speech of General Secretary Suthep:
RT@Aim_NT: Suthep said foreigners have been sent to spy among the protesters. They might cause chaos, light fire, and frame the protesters.
I do not recommend to follow Gaybutton forum. Gaybutton just posted that Abhisit is a leader of Pheu Thai Party and in case Yangluck is ousted, there will be struggle between Abhisit and General Secretary Suthep. The man obviously has no clue. Stay on this thread, if you are interested in true news and objective analysis of FACTS.

[Surfcrest]

Thailand crisis deepens as main opposition party resigns from Parliament

Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/thailand-crisis-deepens-as-main-opposition-party-resigns-from-parliament-1.1579869#ixzz2mu3HMR8M

[Nirish guy]

Stay on this thread, if you are interested in true news and objective analysis of FACTS.

Be sure to let us know when that's going to start then eh.

[joe552]

With all due respect to this Board's owner, this isn't the first place I'd look for political analysis and the future of Ms Yingliuck. The Board does good reviews on sex for money, but for politics, I look elsewhere.

[Smiles]

Boris is flying too close to the sun. As always.
Gee, great insight there: "something might happen". Oh well, hunker down ladies.

[cdnmatt]

I do not recommend to follow Gaybutton forum.

I agree. SGT is a much better venue to get the inside scoop on what the protesters are planning, what the government opposition is planning, and what the future holds for Thailand.

Like you said, nothing but objective analysis and facts here.

[Smiles]

This morning, Mrs Yingluck dissolved Parliament and will be soon announcing an election date. http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/3 ... issolution (http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/383913/prime-minister-yingluck-announces-house-dissolution)
This makes the situation even more interesting. It's not a coup just yet, as a dissolution and an election call by the PM are clearly constitutional, but it's damn close.

But in this country it's all about TiT, so all bets are off.
Yesterday the Democrats resigned from Parliament en masse, so will they take part in an election?
Will the Yellow Shirts go along with an election in which 'Their Side' will ~ at this point in time ~ probably lose?
Will they then stay in the streets and help to make a coup ... for that will be what it would be if Parliament ~ and democracy ~ is not only dissolved, but destroyed?
If the Parliament is destroyed as an institution in Thailand, what would be the alternative(s)?

One can't make this stuff up ... and just one more reason to love living here.

[ikarus]

With all due respect to this Board's owner, this isn't the first place I'd look for political analysis and the future of Ms Yingliuck. The Board does good reviews on sex for money, but for politics, I look elsewhere.
May be you share with us your sources then?
Do not worry, guys, I will guide you through. For starters, let us learn a little bit about the General Secretary (who was characterized by Nation itself as former(?)
influential person, i.e a mafioso ). Look e.g. here:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suthep_Thaugsuban . Well, to put it shortly, this is the guy who owns most of the Phuket.
And one note of caution: Smiles is very shallow guy (as many of you noticed). Just ignore him as I always do.

[pong]

RT@Aim_NT: Suthep said foreigners have been sent to spy among the protesters. They might cause chaos, light fire, and frame the protesters.
S.[/quote]
Which mainly shows how little you know of TH here-or maybe again how easy gays are made scary.
Clearly meant are neighbours, like Khmer/Laotians, Burmese/Chinese. Just the other day some Khmer were caught trying to put fire in some demo-stage, paid orders. Thaksin is extremely friendly with the other dictator in Khmerland, someone named HunSen, an even bigger corrupt moneysucker out of poor people. Whiteys would stand out like a lion in a sheepfarm.
BTW-I am sitting in the area right smack in the middle of the 100.000s of protesters, with all roads blocked by them going on, many come from the south and are joined by BKK people, atmosfere is much sanuk, more like a carnival dressed up. Amazing is the enormous support from the locals here. Signifying are also the shouted yells; Thaksin- Pai owk (go out), Thamruat (=police) same+ pai Dubai! Which was also spoken to them a few days ago at a confrontation with concrete blocks in between. Hate also against police is enormous-much more as I had ever thought. Police shows very low face and is nowhere to be seen-only traffic pol. blocks roads ahead for marching mobs.
T can think-does he really not understand what civil unrest his dreamed of return would bring? That he would have to fear every second for his life? That even his fat hi-so ex is now hanging here in many pictures with threatening texts.

RT@Aim_NT: Suthep said foreigners have been sent to spy among the protesters. They might cause chaos, light fire, and frame the protesters.I agree with ikarus. Suthep threw his toys out of the pram when the US Embassy would not endorse his statement that the Americans supported his anti-democracy movement foreigners beware Thai jingoism is on the rise.

[ikarus]

RT@Aim_NT: Suthep said foreigners have been sent to spy among the protesters. They might cause chaos, light fire, and frame the protesters.
S.
Which mainly shows how little you know of TH here-or maybe again how easy gays are made scary.
Clearly meant are neighbours, like Khmer/Laotians, Burmese/Chinese. Just the other day some Khmer were caught trying to put fire in some demo-stage, paid orders. Thaksin is extremely friendly with the other dictator in Khmerland, someone named HunSen, an even bigger corrupt moneysucker out of poor people. Whiteys would stand out like a lion in a sheepfarm.
BTW-I am sitting in the area right smack in the middle of the 100.000s of protesters, with all roads blocked by them going on, many come from the south and are joined by BKK people, atmosfere is much sanuk, more like a carnival dressed up. Amazing is the enormous support from the locals here. Signifying are also the shouted yells; Thaksin- Pai owk (go out), Thamruat (=police) same+ pai Dubai! Which was also spoken to them a few days ago at a confrontation with concrete blocks in between. Hate also against police is enormous-much more as I had ever thought. Police shows very low face and is nowhere to be seen-only traffic pol. blocks roads ahead for marching mobs.
T can think-does he really not understand what civil unrest his dreamed of return would bring? That he would have to fear every second for his life? That even his fat hi-so ex is now hanging here in many pictures with threatening texts.[/quote]
Even if there are 200 000 people are participating, it is just drop in the bucket (there are more than 60 million Thais). Another question how many have been brought from the South and who paid for it. How many just joined because of free food and general sanuk etc. More importantly, it leads absolutely nowhere.
If General Secretary gets real power (which is, of course, a possibility), it will be a disaster for Thailand , including middle class Bangkokians. Under current government, there have been important stimulus programs to buy first house, first car etc. Minimal wagers were raised. The gap between wealthy and poor have been reduced. Comtuters for school kids was very important program. Suthep promised to cancel all that as populist programs. I am not surprised by your post: you were consistent with your sympaties to Yellows.
I will continue on this thread but your views are extremely short -sighted. And by the way, speaking about knowing Thailand. Things may change very quickly. If I were you, I would be quite cautious (especially in the crowd which do not like foreigners and want to send police to Dubai).
But historically their movement is extremely reactionary.

[ikarus]

There is no doubt that Thailand has a very peculiar history but it does not exempt it from the laws of history. I am not aware of any historical example when any personality were able to exert so much influence to the country of the size of Thailand being in exile as it is claimed by Thai elite with respect to Thaksin.
Moreover, he returned in Thailand in 2008 and nothing really happened. The General Secretary in his speeches attributes corruption to exclusively Thaksin, his family and his party. But this is an obvious lie. Suthep and his machinanations with land in Phuket was the reason that brought down the last Democrat government which was actually elected. As a matter of fact, corruption is endemic to Thai society and all parties involved in it. Instead of trying to invent the wheel, it would be worthwhile to look to the models which allow to reduce or contain corruption: like Western Democracies or South Korea and Japan. Or even perhaps HK or Singapore. Instead of that, Thai elite promotes totally discredited idea that government appointed by ruling feudal elite is capable to address this issue. But there are no historical precedents like that. Only blind cannot see it. If you think about it, what is going on in Thailand is totally idiotic and anti-historical. It is absurd justified by demonization of one person, one family or "dictatorship of capitalism" as General Secretary put it. Whatever Thais do, I do not understand how any Western Educated person can embrace this bullshit.

[lego]

More than anything, I'm under the impression that many foreigners overestimate the role that the official, central government in Thailand is playing. Considering it's basically still a feudal country divided in oh-so-many personal fiefdoms, and having 'organizations' like the military and the police that aren't really under government control, I think that's a mistake.

[ikarus]

It is extremely difficult to make any predictions about Thailand politics mostly because the real rulers do not make their decisions in any kind of transparent way. It is not unusual, therefore that someone like PM does not have enough information let alone outsiders like myself. I do have an opinion, though, and I am going to share it with you. First of all, one can frequently hear that Suthep is crazy. He is not. So far, he played brilliantly his deck of (arguably trump) cards.
He spent several years, working on a network, starting Satellite TV and securing financing (the last part was easy). His major trump card- the support of ruling elite and military (the current Army chief is his good buddy who suppressed the Red shirt uprising together with Suthep in 2010 and was promoted to the current post because of that). The only card missing in Suthep deck is popular support (he would not get more than 10 percent of votes if running on his own platform and my estimate is generous and based on what Yellow shirts usually get). Thus, any kind of fair elections are not on the cards. His program:
1. Get rid of influence of Thaksin family (probably by kicking them out of country and confiscating whatever they will not be able to take with them)
2. "Reform" of the police. Police is currently under total control of Thaksin clan. It showed some signs of efficiency during anti-riot operations but generally remains quite corrupt. "The reform" would most probably consist of ousting Thaksin people and installing members of his own Sura Thani mob.
3. Rehashing the constitution. You may ask how 10 percent can win an election. Two words:repression and intimidation. His former"colleagues" in Democrat party know his heavy hand (ask Korn). That will need the crack down on Red shirts: pretty much all their leadership under the indictments on terrorist charges since 2010. All trials will go ahead. He will hardly tolerate any critic in mass media (judging of his recent treatment of TV stations).
To be continued

Sutheps just running the Thai version of the Tea Party isnt he??

[ikarus]

Sutheps just running the Thai version of the Tea Party isnt he??
It is a mistake to compare Thai political conflicts with those in advanced Democracies. As an American I have much higher living standard, higher level of various kind of freedoms, including economic freedom. There is much less corruption in modern America in comparison with places like Thailand. I am not saying that US
Democracy (or any other advanced Democracy) is free from any kind of problems. Far from it. But this type of society organization is the best the humanity was able to come up with. Thais like to talk about their own way, Russians like to talk about their own form of "Democracy" etc. The problem is these feudal "democracies" are drowning in corruption of a huge scale. One can argue that there are other successful forms like, say, in Singapore. But, overall, from historical perspective the number of successful models is very limited.

[ikarus]

In my opinion, Yingluck is already lost. We will learn (along with her) pretty soon about the decision of powers that be. Various scenarios are possible. One of those bodies like Constitutional court may disqualify her (recall that former PM Samak was disqualified for running cooking show on TV) and it paves the way for Supreme leader as the only game in town. She admitted herself that she retreated on all fronts and accepted the last decision of the Constitutional court regarding the Constitution amendment. It will be very difficult for her n ot to accept another one (and there are plenty of complaints currently in the court as well as Anti-corruption commission). But even if elections will go ahead (and I frankly do not believe in this scenario) what is the point. It just seems to me that the only reason to assume a government position is to use it for ones own enrichment (typically in the form of bribes for awarding the government projects). And the current system does not provide any Democratic mechanism to change it. That is the problem.

[scottish-guy]

... It just seems to me that the only reason to assume a government position is to use it for ones own enrichment....

Nothing unique to Thailand then.

At least here in the UK and the USA any millionaire in the street can become PM or President - and the bribes are paid either in the form of welfare benefits or a blind eye being turned to corporate tax avoidance on a massive scale.

[billy2bs]

I guess the info in the last few post tells the story fairly well. It is too much to think that LOS will bear any resemblane to the democracy we have in the USA and I guess for me it is just wishful thinking on my part. But it is just a shame to see it all happening from afar and not be able to do anything,,,not that I could. Although I did offer my servives for a 5 yr period of time in a different post. I have not heard from any Thai representatives however as yet.

[Nirish guy]

It is too much to think that LOS will bear any resemblane to the democracy we have in the USA and I guess for me it is just wishful thinking on my part.

Ohh I don't know..... there just might be more similarities in the two styles of 'democracies" as to how they both either got into or stayed in power a little more than one might be comfortable conceding or believe perhaps !? The old line about people in glass houses and them maybe not being the first to throw stones comes to mind.

To paraphrase the article below it contains just some info on the 2004 US Elections, where concerns were raised by many US Citizens about things such as Voter registration, Purges of voter lists,Voter suppression, Practical impediments,Voting machine ambiguities, Provisional and absentee ballots, Exit polling and Recounts etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Unite ... troversies (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_election_voting_controversies)

Sutheps just running the Thai version of the Tea Party isnt he??It is a mistake to compare Thai political conflicts with those in advanced Democracies. As an American I have much higher living standard, higher level of various kind of freedoms, including economic freedom.Yes yes we all know the Thais are incapable of organising an orgy in a brothel however my point is that the Tea Party is a bunch of right-wing nut cases who have no great interest in democracy just like Sutheps mob.

[ikarus]

It is quite unfortunate that this important topic attracts only trolls from this message board. In any case, I am not going to respond to bullshit posted above and will continue to comment on Thai events when they unfold.

[thaiguest]

It is quite unfortunate that this important topic attracts only trolls from this message board. In any case, I am not going to respond to bullshit posted above and will continue to comment on Thai events when they unfold.
Ok "Plenty of Boys at Saran Rom" has 11000 views "This time may be different" has 1100 views-not to worry most of us on here are sex addicts and many of us live fake cyber lives far away from Thailand.
But those of us that do live here a lot or most of the time should be concerned this time because I agree with you that 'this time might be different". Thailand has reached the wall in terms of the fundamental hollow core that animates democracy here.
Yes Mr. T's side has a majority in parliament but it's used to maintain hegemony not fairness and the provenence of the vote base is suspect. On the other side you have an amart that has been kept back from the national feeding trough for a record period and they don't like it. They know that crude democracy will bring back the status quo so their answer lies in a proposal that is basically fascist. A coup would have satisfied them but now that that is not on this sly nasty but unhinged Sth. is determind to bring the whole house down. I'm a little more than simply concerned.
As a foreigner with a small financial but a big personal stake in this wonderful country I feel like an ant in the thai proverb that reads; 'when elephants fight many ants get crushed"

[Marsilius]

Ok "Plenty of Boys at Saran Rom" has 11000 views "This time may be different" has 1100 views-not to worry most of us on here are sex addicts...

"Saran Rom" has attracted its 11,000 hits since January - i.e. in more than ten months. "This time" has attracted its 1,100 hits in just five days.

The statistics therefore suggest, albeit perhaps counterintuitively, that "most of us on here" are politic junkies (or at least concerned by how politics may affect our imminent visit to Thailand) rather than sex addicts.

[ikarus]

As a foreigner with a small financial but a big personal stake in this wonderful country I feel like an ant in the thai proverb that reads; 'when elephants fight many ants get crushed"
I agree with you. In a sense, I would prefer to count orgasms of Christianpfc rather than elaborate on Thai politics. But I am scared and I also have a personal stake in this country.
Here are several recent developments worth mentioning. Constitutional court declined to consider the complaint of one of the former senators about activities of Suthep. The Court does not perceive the activities of Suthep as anti-constitutional. On the other hand, the court accepted the complaint of Democrat party
regarding the spending bill which passed both chambers of Thai parliament . (that may bring down care-taker government).
Yingluck travels to Chiang Mai where she receives a very warm welcome among the local population. Of course, Chiang Mai is a stronghold of Thaksin clan
but one of the underlining themes of Thai conflict is the conflict between South and North. That is also of a concern of powers that be. Historically, when the threat of civil war between these two regions were arising, the highest level interference was imminent. Some respected analysts do not discount this possibility (I mean interference not civil war).

[timmberty]

It is quite unfortunate that this important topic attracts only trolls from this message board. In any case, I am not going to respond to bullshit posted above and will continue to comment on Thai events when they unfold.

do i take it that you dont agree with brisbanes point of view therefore call him a nutter and disregard it. democracy is what you are after ?

[Patanawet]

It is too much to think that LOS will bear any resemblane to the democracy we have in the USA and I guess for me it is just wishful thinking on my part.
Wonderful Billy. I do love irony.
You are right -- what we in the rest of the world really need is a government system that spends half of it's term campaigning for the next election, spending obscene amounts of money each time that could have been spent on schools, hospitals and a real universal health care system on buying support.
A system where a president is elected with promises of radical improvements yet is handcuffed from doing anything by a majority opposition
A system where the government is made the world's laughing stock every few months when it can't agree it's budget to pay it's debts and employees.

Yes, we can only wait and hope.

[newalaan2]

It is extremely difficult to make any predictions about Thailand politics
Exactly and probably as good a reason as any not to spend too much time bothering about it, and the fact I can't vote means I have no way of affecting the outcome so there's really no point (for me) getting too interested in Thai politics. But thanks to "ikarus" for posting some very useful info as an overall view of the technicalities and keeping abreast of the situation does no harm and I'm sure there are many like me who simply can't be bothered to research or trawl the internet.

Any hopes of getting a similar overview from bf and attempts at discussing it are met with disbelief that any foreigner would have the slightest interest in Thai politics as it clearly "has nothing to do with them" as bf tells me "it's not for you (as a foreigner) to know" when I enquired about who he voted for last election. One thing for sure which is 'different this time around' for him is that he has lost total interest.

He admits to being totally pissed off with the demonstrations to the extent that it "gives me a headache every time I look TV!" and "if they can throw out the government after an election...tell me... what is the point in voting?" after I advise him he should always vote in respect of those in the world who don't have a free vote. If Thais themselves have lost interest why should westerners be concerned?


It is quite unfortunate that this important topic attracts only trolls from this message board. In any case, I am not going to respond to bullshit posted above and will continue to comment on Thai events when they unfold
Excuse me....but! I don't see even ONE troll never mind 'only' trolls! And remember while it may be important to you to many of us it might be less so, I mean what can we as foreigners do about it anyway?

Now....while BrisbaneGuy obviously puts on some kind of 'act' for his visits here with his deliberate apparent lack of coherence in the way he constructs his posts, and misuse of language (why i'm not sure as nobody swallows it for a second) which may make him 'appear' troll-like, I think it rather unfair on this occasion to call it trolling as he is perfectly correct in claiming that Sutheps 'mob' have no great interest in democracy as it's all about self-interest. Where is the trolling in that response "ikarus"? Seems very un-troll-like to me. It's his opinion and he is perfectly entitled to it without being described as a troll. It's "quite unfortunate" you see it as that.

[lego]

Constitutional court declined to consider the complaint of one of the former senators about activities of Suthep. The Court does not perceive the activities of Suthep as anti-constitutional. On the other hand, the court accepted the complaint of Democrat party regarding the spending bill which passed both chambers of Thai parliament . (that may bring down care-taker government).

In most countries with a separate Constitutional Court (i.e. where it's not part of the Supreme Court), this court's sole responsibility is to rule if actions of the legislative, executive or judicial branch violate the constitution. Khun Suthep isn't a member of any of these branches of government, as of now he's just an individual and self-styled leader of his own movement and 'council'. So, personally, I think it makes sense that the regular courts like the Criminal Court (and up from there, the Appeals Court and the Supreme Court) are in charge as far as the question whether his acts have been lawful or illegal is concerned, not the Constitutional Court.

That said, unfortunately the Constitutional Court indeed reasoned along the lines of what you wrote, and this has caught my attention as well. At the very least, I think that Thailand's Constitutional Court has an unusual understanding of the scope of its responsibilities, to put it kindly.

I cannot fault those who are saying that Thailand's democracy is a failure (or about to be one), but citing the U.S. as a shining example for a thriving democracy is beyond laughable, really.

[Smiles]

It is quite unfortunate that this important topic attracts only trolls from this message board. In any case, I am not going to respond to bullshit posted above and will continue to comment on Thai events when they unfold
Excuse me....but! I don't see even ONE troll never mind 'only' trolls! And remember while it may be important to you to many of us it might be less so, I mean what can we as foreigners do about it anyway?
Newalaan2 ... You might want to check out this rather long thread on Baht Stop to get a sense of the quite toxic innards of 'Icarus'.
Look for the posts of 'Boris' ... who is 'Ikarus' on Sawatdee: http://www.baht-stop.com/forums/index.p ... opic=15892 (http://www.baht-stop.com/forums/index.php?s=6b46e8046cd8226d16b3c7ed69c68b6d&showtopic=15892)
Ikarus goes through these hypertensions regularly on this board and undoubtedly many others ... each episode starting off easily (and sanely) enough, until one or more posters start to disagree with him ~ and usually the disagreements start out reasonably polite. But, unbeknownst to the disagree-er, he has entered sacrosant territory ~ Boris/Ikarus does not take kindly to the most miniscule disagreement, much less a molecule of humour.

The end game is predictable, born of massive ego and a neurotic disdain for any and everyone who purports to go in an opposite direction of his. Sooner or later something similar to the pithy phrase "that's it Motherfucker ... I'm outta here" pierces the tension and Ikarus vacates the thread - sometimes the board - in great and dramatic high dudgeon ... like a sulking child, oblivious as to how it happened.
This MO has now been repeated many many times over the years (the thread linked above attests to that), and I doubt that it will end until the availability of preachable message boards approaches nil.

(Full disclosure. This Ikarus dude is a professional and seriously nasty hater on numerous levels and I am one of his favorite targets, over many years. I get a strange kick out of it frankly. So I admit to being hardly objective on the subject, quite readily. Thus: grain o' salt.)

[thaiguest]

Ok "Plenty of Boys at Saran Rom" has 11000 views "This time may be different" has 1100 views-not to worry most of us on here are sex addicts...

"Saran Rom" has attracted its 11,000 hits since January - i.e. in more than ten months. "This time" has attracted its 1,100 hits in just five days.

The statistics therefore suggest, albeit perhaps counterintuitively, that "most of us on here" are politic junkies (or at least concerned by how politics may affect our imminent visit to Thailand) rather than sex addicts.

OK, Let's see how the statistics stack up in 10 months time vis.a.vis sex addicts/political junkies. My bet is (and I hope you're "counterintuitively" correct) that posters on this topic will prove themselves to be more concerned with sex,cottaging and general (o-la-la) sleeze, than politics, albeit that I'm probably out of step with the general concensus.

[AsiaGuys]

Nearly every time there are mass protests in Bangkok it ends up in a bloodless coup or a change of government. In 2006 the tanks just rolled in when Thaksin was overseas and the army took over. It all happens so easily in Thailand. Stay away from the protests and you will be fine.

[Marsilius]

I expect that in 10 months time you may well have been proved right. I was simply observing that, at the point in time when you made your observation, the statistics that you cited do not support it.

[ikarus]

In most countries with a separate Constitutional Court (i.e. where it's not part of the Supreme Court), this court's sole responsibility is to rule if actions of the legislative, executive or judicial branch violate the constitution. Khun Suthep isn't a member of any of these branches of government, as of now he's just an individual and self-styled leader of his own movement and 'council'. So, personally, I think it makes sense that the regular courts like the Criminal Court (and up from there, the Appeals Court and the Supreme Court) are in charge as far as the question whether his acts have been lawful or illegal is concerned, not the Constitutional Court.

That said, unfortunately the Constitutional Court indeed reasoned along the lines of what you wrote, and this has caught my attention as well. At the very least, I think that Thailand's Constitutional Court has an unusual understanding of the scope of its responsibilities, to put it kindly.

I cannot fault those who are saying that Thailand's democracy is a failure (or about to be one), but citing the U.S. as a shining example for a thriving democracy is beyond laughable, really.[/quote]
Constitutional Court disqualified two Prime ministers just in recent years (Samak and Somchai) and that may very well be the possible course of action under present circumstances. Suthep demands resignation of Yingluck which (in his view) open the way for his "peoples council". The Constitutional Court may deliver just that. The new chief of Election Commission just said that if Anti-Corruption commission find (former) 312 members of the House (who voted for Constitutional amendment rejected by Constitutional Court) guilty, it will not derail future elections and they still will be able to participate. It seems that leave
Constitutional Court as the only option to derail elections judicially.
On the other hand, if Constitutional Court do that, it really may lead to the explosion of the whole situation. The time-frame is pretty tight (new elections are scheduled on February 2) and those who plan Christmas-New visit may very well be effected. That is why I keep an eye on CC.

[MiniMee]

Actually Marsi, you'll have to wait 22 months to find out - that Saran Rom thread was started in January 2012

Suthep's politics remind me of General Franco and we all know how that ended up.Suthep's the guy who signed the warrant to massacre the Red Shirts a couple of years ago when Boris Johnson's school chum was Prime Minister.

[gregvc]

FRanco - you mean he ruled from 1939 to 1975! So far, no politician has been in power for that long in Thailand. I have been speaking to many educated Thais who despair about the future. In fact I was surprised by the extent of violence that they thought could be reached to see the Shinawat family leave. -the death of one of the family.

FRanco - you mean he ruled from 1939 to 1975! So far, no politician has been in power for that long in Thailand.LOL

[ikarus]

Today we got the first glimpse of how powers that be see the end game. NACC (National anti-corruption commission) announced that they are going to indict "on corruption charges" former house speaker and the President of senate (Nicom). They are summoned to acknowledge charges on January 10. In practical terms, it means that Nicom will not be able to perform his duties as the President of Senate starting January 10. His deputy is appointed senator and will be able to appoint new Prime Minister (after Constitutional court disqualify the current one). This is precisely what Suthep wants. Weather this plan will work or lead to a sort of civil war remains to be seen. In any case, Thailand is on the threshold of one of the darkest pages of its history. US Embassy updated its travel warning and recommends all Americans who are currently in Thailand to register with them.

[marti]

Would you care to perhaps post information that is actually useful (if you have any) as opposed to just a random post scare mongering and stating the bleeding obvious that things might ( or might not) get a bit unruly in Thailand at some point in the future weeks as lets face it it doesn't take a fortune teller to work that out now does it.
I agree with what you said. Panic type statements with no knowledgeable support are not the best thing to spread.

[marti]

I do not recommend to follow Gaybutton forum.

I agree. SGT is a much better venue to get the inside scoop on what the protesters are planning, what the government opposition is planning, and what the future holds for Thailand.

Like you said, nothing but objective analysis and facts here.
I certainly hope this is sarcasm on your part and not what you really think.

[AsiaGuys]

Be careful and watch your step.

Yes good advice but don't worry too much, TIT and coups and protests are just a part of the course for Thailand

[Smiles]

Marti, I'm sure that Cndmatt was being sarcastic.
But Ikarus? ... it is to chortle. Ikarus is not attuned to even the simplest definition of that sometimes necessary, and often glorious, language tool.
Luckily for everyone, that's what makes him so funny.

[Sooty]

Dream on, Smiles, the day of the lamp posts cannot be far away.

[cdnmatt]

I certainly hope this is sarcasm on your part and not what you really think.

Don't worry, yes, I was being sarcastic. This is SGT, where we review prostitutes, and discuss whether the new piece of ass we found at our local go-go bar is worth 1500 or 2000 baht for the night. Not exactly a place to come to learn what methods the opposition is planning to implement, in order to overthrow the current government.

[Sooty]

Not exactly a place to come to learn what methods the opposition is planning to implement, in order to overthrow the current government.Are you able to point us to that Web site cdnmatt? Do you recommend the various sites on Wordpress devoted to "political prisoners of Thailand" for example?

[cdnmatt]

Are you able to point us to that Web site cdnmatt? Do you recommend the various sites on Wordpress devoted to "political prisoners of Thailand" for example?

Nah, we happen to be foreigners, so we don't get to be privy to that sort of information.

I'm not sure why everyone is so worried about these latest protests. It's not like this is new ground for Thailand, or anything. It happens every 2 or 3 years. Most likely, the worst case scenario is violence erupts in Bangkok, the military gets pissed off, so intervenes, conducts a coup, boots Yingluck to the curb, and takes over the government. The last time that happened, the majority of Thais didn't even notice. They seen a little blurb on the evening news while trying to get Somchai to eat his vegetables, that the military has taken over the government, and they continued on with their daily lives.

[ikarus]

Here is an article which explains well the current situation in Thailand. Thailand on the brink:http://wagingnonviolence.org/feature/thailand-brink/
For some fucking idiots out here: I do not make random fearmongering posts: I just try to emphasize what is really important for the development of the current situation. Only stupid, fucking idiots cannot see that Thailand is quickly moving to the catastrophe.

[cdnmatt]

For some fucking idiots out here: I do not make random fearmongering posts:

Of course not. That's why you post from such reputable sources as WagingNoViolence.org.

[lego]

Here is an article which explains well the current situation in Thailand. Thailand on the brink:http://wagingnonviolence.org/feature/thailand-brink/
For some fucking idiots out here: I do not make random fearmongering posts: I just try to emphasize what is really important for the development of the current situation. Only stupid, fucking idiots cannot see that Thailand is quickly moving to the catastrophe.
Your fearmongering posts aren't random, agreed. =))

Are you able to point us to that Web site cdnmatt? Do you recommend the various sites on Wordpress devoted to "political prisoners of Thailand" for example?Nah, we happen to be foreigners, so we don't get to be privy to that sort of information.

For some fucking idiots out here: I do not make random fearmongering posts:Of course not. That's why you post from such reputable sources as WagingNoViolence.org.Either you do know some reputable sites or you don't but it looks to me as if you're just being a smartarse.

[Khor tose]

Are you able to point us to that Web site cdnmatt? Do you recommend the various sites on Wordpress devoted to "political prisoners of Thailand" for example?Nah, we happen to be foreigners, so we don't get to be privy to that sort of information.

For some fucking idiots out here: I do not make random fearmongering posts:Of course not. That's why you post from such reputable sources as WagingNoViolence.org.Either you do know some reputable sites or you don't but it looks to me as if you're just being a smartarse.

Okay
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/08/world ... quiry.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/08/world/asia/308-thai-lawmakers-face-anticorruption-inquiry.html)
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/20/opini ... alism.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/20/opinion/the-last-gasp-of-thai-paternalism.html)
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/04/world ... iland.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/04/world/asia/thailand.html)

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/08/world/asia/308-thai-lawmakers-face-anticorruption-inquiry.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/20/opini ... alism.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/20/opinion/the-last-gasp-of-thai-paternalism.html)
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/04/world ... iland.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/04/world/asia/thailand.html)That still keeps cdnmatt as the smartarse!

[cdnmatt]

That still keeps cdnmatt as the smartarse!

Not really. If you'd like, I'm sure I can dig up a blog somewhere on the internet, where within the past week some lady has written about her recent vacation to Thailand, and about how wonderful the country and its people are. That's about the equivalent of posting something from WagingNoViolence.org, and calling it fact.

That still keeps cdnmatt as the smartarse!Not really. If you'd like, I'm sure I can dig up a blog somewhere on the internet, where within the past week some lady has written about her recent vacation to Thailand, and about how wonderful the country and its people are. That's about the equivalent of posting something from WagingNoViolence.org, and calling it fact.You really do struggle with basic comprehension don't you.

[Khor tose]

Article of interest in CD Matts area of Thailand.

A great OP-ED piece in Chiang Mai's online City News' newspaper.

http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?id=2962

[cdnmatt]

Article of interest in CD Matts area of Thailand.

A great OP-ED piece in Chiang Mai's online City News' newspaper.

http://www.chiangmaicitynews.com/news.php?id=2962

Just considering the amount of keywords they stuffed into the headline, I'll unfortunately have to give that article a pass too. There are a couple in places like the Bangkok Post that are hyping up the possibility of civil war though.

Before anyone gets too worked up over the possibility though, remember the military has not done ANYTHING yet. They have not said or done a single thing yet. If and when they do step in, I would imagine it'll be like all previous times, and everything instantly goes quiet on all sides. Again, worst case scenario I can see if a military coup, and if that happens, big deal. 99.8% of Thais (and 100% of expats) won't notice a single difference in their lives, same as the last coup.

Now if / when the military steps in, and things don't go quiet, then it's time to get worried and get the f*ck out of dodge. For now though, I'm going to relax, and enjoy my beer on this nice cool +26C afternoon.

[Smiles]

Mr Suthep can only hope that the military steps in (on the yellow side that is), as it is his one and only last resort. In fact I think that right about now he is praying that gunfire and death will bring in the brass.

Suthep has claimed 'victory' now eight times ... each claim essentially ignored by the Yingluck/Thaksin government. Should Bangkok go about it's business ~ granted, with a bit more annoyance than usual ~ during the fast-approaching Shut-Down-Bangkok nonsense, as well as the Army doing precisely nothing, the Suthep is probably finished. Abhisit may well be finished also, by siding with him ... and deserves to be as he has showed his disdain for Thailand's fragile democracy by doing so.
Mr Prayuth, by doing nothing, may well be the elected government's saviour in this one: a delicious Thailand ironic moment.

Anyway, this whole schmozzle is not all about democracy anyway (Thais for the most part don't give a damn about that) ... it's all about the different power elites in Thailand attempting to jockey themselves into the most advantageous ~ for themselves ~ position when and if the Pa Kettle passes away and his son takes the helm. To the elites of Thailand, democratic elections, rule of law, governments-working-on-behalf-of-the-people (and a dozen or so other maudlin cliches of democracy) have no meaning whatsoever.
In Thailand, it's pure power only which has any meaning.
Those 'common' folks making up the yellow and red mobs are being duped ~ as all mobs are ~ plain and simple.

Having written all that: TiT ... i.e ~ who really knows for sure?

[aot871]

All though Mr Abhisit was born of thai parents , he was born in the uk , went to the same private school as the current british prime minister, then onto one of the top 2 unis in the country. Unlike most western countries it seems than unless you have money in thai it no use trying to get into that line of work

[lego]

If another coup happens, Khun Abhisit can recycle his 2006 post-coup statement with just a small correction, since it reads:


We cannot and do not support any kind of extra-constitutional change, but it is done. The country has to move forward and the best way forward is for the coup leaders to quickly return power to the people and carry out the reforms they promised. They have to prove themselves. I urge them to lift all restrictions as soon as possible. There is no need to write a brand new constitution. They could make changes to the 1997 constitution and if that's the case, there is no reason to take a year. Six months is a good time.

Just replace "1997 constitution" and he'll be good to go.

Just considering the amount of keywords they stuffed into the headline, I'll unfortunately have to give that article a pass too. ... For now though, I'm going to relax, and enjoy my beer on this nice cool +26C afternoon.That'll be a Singha will it Matt? http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/11/world ... marks.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/11/world/asia/thai-beer-loses-esteem-after-heiresss-remarks.html)

[Smiles]

All though Mr Abhisit was born of thai parents , he was born in the uk , went to the same private school as the current british prime minister, then onto one of the top 2 unis in the country. Unlike most western countries it seems than unless you have money in thai it no use trying to get into that line of work
The US has it's fair share of wealthy folks traipsing through the halls of Congress: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-cong ... ires-club/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-congress-a-millionaires-club/) (This article is almost a year old ... and 2013 was a stellar year in the stock markets. God knows how much the ratio has gone up since then).

[ikarus]

It looks like Gaybutton just deleted the post of paperboy who posted the reference to:
http://news.sky.com/story/1194076/thai- ... ight-buses (http://news.sky.com/story/1194076/thai-protests-tourists-flee-on-night-buses)
Does it mean that Gaybutton supports faschist Suthep?

[ikarus]

And singha beer too:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... e16290745/ (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/thai-beer-loses-esteem-after-remarks-by-heiress/article16290745/)

[ikarus]

For some fucking idiots out here: I do not make random fearmongering posts:

Of course not. That's why you post from such reputable sources as WagingNoViolence.org.
This is coming from the guy who (on this forum) recommended, for example, to buy silver when silver was around 30USD per ounce. There are plenty of idiots here and elsewhere.Unfortunately, the majority of world population are just fucking idiots. I have just returned from Thailand and I can tell you that the situation there is much worse than
I thought. E.g. do you know why there is no coup? What I was told is that too risky for Priyth to stage it, cause divisions within the Army are too strong. In other words, it looks like the ruling elite does not have the clear path out of the crisis. The situation is so dangerous because nobody knows how it can be resolved.

I had a bit of a look around the Lumpini Park/Wireless Rd/Sathorn Rd intersection today. The bridge on Rama IV over that intersection seemed to be occupied by the parked cars of protesters. A few helicopters overhead. Personally I'd be strafing the buggers with chilli powder. The businesses in that big complex on the corner where they have (and still have) their "Christmas Lights" seemed to be operating normally - including the banks.

I'll be heading off at my usual time for drinks in Soi 4 but I realise that's way too early for people like TrongpaiExpat to give you their One True Version of how business there is going. However I was at Maxis in Soi Twilight on Monday night last week and customers could readily get a table, in complete contrast to the previous Monday where nothing was available - at exactly the same time. My impression is that the high season is indeed over, if it ever existed. I notice the "smoking ban" is lightly enforced (ie. not at all) there - the Western guy at an adjacent indoors table was chain-smoking. Even the Thai he was with wasn't smoking.

[paperboy]

yes i was deleted
weird
but there you go thats Gaybotton for you

[Balcony]

Here are some photos of Silom Soi 4 taken at 11.00pm on Monday 13th January. In spite of the 'close down' several people have managed to get out to enjoy the night. Maybe not as many as we would expect at this time of year but still a good crowd considering the negative press reports of the situation in Bangkok.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v203/balcony/130114-01.jpg (http://smg.photobucket.com/user/balcony/media/130114-01.jpg.html)
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v203/balcony/130114-02.jpg (http://smg.photobucket.com/user/balcony/media/130114-02.jpg.html)
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v203/balcony/130114-03.jpg (http://smg.photobucket.com/user/balcony/media/130114-03.jpg.html)

[Surfcrest]

http://www.tatnews.org/category/tat-releases/situation-update/

I just love this sort of advice
All airports in Bangkok and throughout the country are open and operating as per normal. Air passengers with flights depart out of Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang International Airports are advised to allocate at least four hours prior to their scheduled flight departure time and to check flight status prior to travelling.In other words "Things are perfectly normal in fact so normal we recommend you double the amount of time you need to be at the airport."

Misinformation abounds. A friend tried to tell me that Yingluck had publicly "offered to resign on Sunday night but had been dissuaded by her brother" and then drew my attention in support of this assertion to an article in the Yellow Shirt Pravda (aka. "The Nation") in which it was said that "sources close to the government said that Yingluck had spoken to her brother on Sunday night and he had reminded her that under the Constitution resignation is not an option". This friend is a supposedly intelligent and well-read individual whose comprehension skills are apparently on a par with cdnmatt. The source of all of his information is The ExPat Drama Queen Gazette aka. Thaivisa.

[Smiles]

Actually, resignation is an option under the parliamentary system.
All she has to do is resign as the leader of the Puea Thai Party. The Party makes a quick convention, votes for a new leader, and whoever wins is automatically the new PM.
Doing this may in fact help matters, as long as the new party leader has a lot fewer strings attached to the man in Dubai ... which is Mrs Yingluck's elephant-in-the-room. This could easily be offered as a Shakespearian play.

But I doubt it would help really. The asinine Mr Suthep has dug a huge hole in the ground already and the adulation he is enjoying right now pretty well assures he will do most anything not to lose face now. Add to that the man's inherent megalomania and bully-like personality and I'd guess that this man ain't for turning.

I recall an old Kevin Kostner movie, the title of which pretty well fits the situation Thailand finds itself in right now, down to a tee: 'No Way Out'

[lego]

Actually, resignation is an option under the parliamentary system.
All she has to do is resign as the leader of the Puea Thai Party. The Party makes a quick convention, votes for a new leader, and whoever wins is automatically the new PM.
That's (somewhat) true only until parliament is dissolved. Once she crossed that line and became the "Caretaker PM", it became impossible to replace her like that. Besides, the leader of the ruling party isn't automatically the new PM. That might work this way in a two-party system, but not here in Thailand. Parliament would have to elect the new party leader as PM, with majority (which usually involves several coalition parties), and HM the King's endorsement would then also be required.

The easy way out would be to ask the military to nullify the constitution. Maybe it won't even be necessary to ask, depending on how things develop further. ;)

[Smiles]

Thanks Lego, for helping to straighten out the issue of a Prime Minister of Thailand 'resigning' ... either the PM job itself, or the Party leadership.

In my post above I made a couple of assumptions which, upon looking further, are incorrect. I was basing my post above on the fact that Thailand is governed under the Parliamentary system ... and when that is the case it's probably reasonable to look at the 'rules' of the longest living such system, the British variation, and go from there.

In my experience the British, Canadian, and Australian parliamentary systems work under the rule that the political party receiving the largest number of votes has the First Right to be called to establish a government, and the leader of that same political party is offered the opportunity (in the above countries, by the Queen in the case of Britain, and by the Governors General in Canada and Australia) to become Prime Minister.

As you have rightly pointed out, the Thailand parliamentary system differs significantly on the above process, and in that light, the resignation of a PM differs as well by specific processes described in Thailand's Constitution.
And, as usual, the processes are much more complicated in Thailand ... as all things are here.

I'll not get too bogged down on this rather tedious reading, but simply refer anyone who's interested (I was) to the Thai Constitution here: http://www.asianlii.org/th/legis/const/2007/1.html#C09 and to three specific parts which touch on Prime Minsters and their resignations:

Chapter 9 ~ Section 171 and 172
Chapter 9 ~ Section 182 Item #2

There may well be more relevant sections, but reading through constitutions is bloody tough slogging ... and I fell asleep a couple of times.

[Marsilius]

...the British, Canadian, and Australian parliamentary systems work under the rule that the political party receiving the largest number of votes has the First Right to be called to establish a government...

A slight slip of the metaphorical pen here, probably caused by the exhaustion induced by all that constitution reading...

In the UK at least, it is the party winning the largest number of parliamentary seats - not the largest number of votes - that is given the first chance to form a government. There have been a few occasions where the party winning most votes has secured fewer seats because their massive blocs of votes are geographically concentrated in smaller areas (and so in fewer constituencies). The British parliamentary election of 1951 where Labour secured more votes but the Conservatives more seats (so receiving the invitation to form a government) is the clearest and best modern example. In the somewhat more confused circumstances of the no-overall-majority-for-any-single-party February 1974 election, once the Conservatives (more votes but fewer seats) had finally resigned, it was Labour (more seats but fewer votes) that was invited by the Queen as the first choice to form a new government.

Full details are here: http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/uktable.htm

[Smiles]

Christ, I'm getting more humble as the day goes by!
Yes Marsilius you are quite correct. But this one I did know ... just lazy writing and no proof reading.
Hoisted on my own petard.
I need a puppy dog.

As I finish up my holiday in Bangkok and prepare to fly out, I'm interested to read the "take" in the foreign press about the grenade attacks against the protesters. The implication from the statement that the grenade throwers are "closely associated" with a former Democrat politician is that Suthep is using agents provocteur against his own followers in order to provoke the Army into taking action.

Thailand, you have to love it!!

The Royal Thai Navy are to sue the Royal Thai Police for libel. The Police arrested three plain-clothes Navy personnel carry ammunition and anti-government protester official ID yesterday, on suspicion of acting illegally (read: as agents provocateur). No no, says Admiral Poobah, they were acting undercover searching for illegal drugs (Navy personnel??) and they had false anti-government protester official ID so they could mingle with the crowd of yuppies and NIMBYs who make up the bulk of Suthep's supporters. The Royal Thai Police has libeled the Royal Thai Navy thereby. Oh dear me.

Forbes Asia - Bangkok spirals out of control (http://www.forbes.com/sites/meghabahree/2014/01/22/as-bangkok-spirals-out-of-control-business-suffers/)

[ikarus]

To sum up a current political situation in one sentence: the only thing that separates the ruling elite from pitchforks is Yingluck.

[ikarus]

Reuters and AFP report that February 2 elections to go ahead. Under present circumstances it (hopefully) means that the crisis in Thailand will be resolved (one way or another) sooner rather than later. Avoid BKK.

[Smiles]

Avoid BKK.
Actually, Bangkok during vote day might be quite interesting ... so come one and all.
But avoiding Ikarus? ... now that would be thoroughly worthwhile.

A very interesting overview of what's going on behind the scenes according to "informed sources" http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_ ... 00114.html (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-02-300114.html)

[ikarus]

A very interesting overview of what's going on behind the scenes according to "informed sources" http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_ ... 00114.html (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-02-300114.html)
I just wanted to post the reference to this article. The problem with this "analysis" is that this present the crisis in Thailand as a fight between feudal clans. This is absolutely wrong. Similar in a sense conflicts are taking place in Egypt, Turkey, Ukraine and many other places. It is just too narrow minded to explain all these situations as conflicts within narrow ruling elites. And that is why the article grossly underestimate the role of people in the outcome of Thai conflict. This outcome is far from being predetermined as indicated over there.

[ikarus]

A real battle broke out in Lak Sri District office in BKK. For those who still did not get it. Let me explain the situation in BKK: fascist Joker holds a huge metropolis as a hostage for three months now. Just get out until it is too late.

[lego]

The problem with this "analysis" is that this present the crisis in Thailand as a fight between feudal clans.
Why does that sound wrong to you? If you'd want to sum it up in one sentence, that's about as good as it gets. There are basically two camps of powerful people, each with their agenda to enrich themselves and their cronies, and each with their pawns (followers). Some of the pawns are paid for and others are delusional. Some even fall into both categories. You keep calling Khun Suthep unkind names and I cannot really argue with you there. I just don't think he's all that different from his opponents, they're basically of the same ilk and merely adjust their tactics to the situation they find themselves in. So now that the Thaksin camp is officially in charge, it's their role to act like statesmen and defenders of democracy. In 2010, it was their role to be the vigilantes in the streets of Bangkok. The roles between the camps vary, are interchangeable and it's ultimately mostly window dressing anyway.


A real battle broke out in Lak Sri District office in BKK. For those who still did not get it. Let me explain the situation in BKK: fascist Joker holds a huge metropolis as a hostage for three months now. Just get out until it is too late.
More scaremongering nonsense. Keep it coming, you're starting to bore me to death.

[ikarus]

There is now plenty of evidence (including photos and videos) indicating that the shooting spree at Lak Sri district office was due to armed bandits which call themselves anti-government protesters. Clearly, Joker tries to disrupt tomorrow elections. Make no mistake: after February 2 the crisis will enter new more violent stage.

[ikarus]

The problem with this "analysis" is that this present the crisis in Thailand as a fight between feudal clans.
Why does that sound wrong to you? If you'd want to sum it up in one sentence, that's about as good as it gets. There are basically two camps of powerful people, each with their agenda to enrich themselves and their cronies, and each with their pawns (followers). Some of the pawns are paid for and others are delusional. Some even fall into both categories. You keep calling Khun Suthep unkind names and I cannot really argue with you there. I just don't think he's all that different from his opponents, they're basically of the same ilk and merely adjust their tactics to the situation they find themselves in. So now that the Thaksin camp is officially in charge, it's their role to act like statesmen and defenders of democracy. In 2010, it was their role to be the vigilantes in the streets of Bangkok. The roles between the camps vary, are interchangeable and it's ultimately mostly window dressing anyway.

.
You have regional conflicts in Cambodia, Burma,Malaysia. You have conflicts in Egypt,Tunisia,Turkey, Ukraine. Why nobody tries to describe these conflicts in feudal terms like you are doing here in case of Thailand. Your description reminds me Japanese Samurai movies where vassals were ready to die for their conflicting feudal rulers. If you believe that Thai society is somehow completely unique for 21 century and at the level of 17 century Japan, your description makes sense. Otherwise, it is a total bullshit. By the way, your narrative repeats 100 percent propaganda of Thai ruling elite. Your views are anti-historical and do not reflect the facts on the ground. In any context:regional, political, historical if you for a moment disregard totally idiotic propaganda of the ruling, degenerated elite, you will be able to begin to understand what is happening in this country.

[lego]

ikarus, with respect, the one spreading the most propaganda on this thread is no other than you. By far.

Note that I didn't use the term "feudal" myself, and not just in this most recent post you've quoted, because I think it's unnecessarily loaded. That aside, what you've written doesn't make any sense "on the ground". Those who demonstrate now and those who demonstrated before effectively just replace one brand of "degenerated elite" (to use your term) by another one, if they succeed. I've yet to see a movement in Thailand that really challenges the status quo.

To be clear, I don't think that people in general "are ready to die for their feudal rulers" because they believe it's their destiny or duty or anything like that. I'd think many of them feverishly believe in their side's propaganda, on both sides. That's why you have family members and neighbors assault each other over political disputes, and similar ugly developments like this. My point is, they're being used. By both sides. In my personal opinion, any Western-educated foreigner who takes sides in this conflict and is too blind to see that they are equally bad is much dumber than the "pawns" on the ground, who don't have the benefit of being trained critical thinkers.

[corky]

Avoid BKK.

A real battle broke out in Lak Sri District office in BKK. For those who still did not get it. Let me explain the situation in BKK: fascist Joker holds a huge metropolis as a hostage for three months now. Just get out until it is too late.

There is now plenty of evidence (including photos and videos) indicating that the shooting spree at Lak Sri district office was due to armed bandits which call themselves anti-government protesters. Clearly, Joker tries to disrupt tomorrow elections. Make no mistake: after February 2 the crisis will enter new more violent stage.

Ikarus, is it time for your lithium pill? You post the most manic, scaremongering nonsense I have read in a long time.

For those who don't know the whereabouts of Lak Si, its just outside the old Don Muang airport - at least a 40 minute drive to Silom & Suriwong (the area of Bangkok that most members of this board are interested).
I was in Silom tonight and it was very busy with tourists and locals all enjoying the carnival atmosphere of the area. Soi 4 was busy like Christmas Eve.

To put your alarm and anxiety into perspective ... did you know that in 2013 the City of Chicago alone had 372 people shot and killed; 448 total homicides and 1778 shot and wounded. How many governmental travel warnings are there for Chicago?

I'm not sure why everyone is so worried about these latest protests. It's not like this is new ground for Thailand, or anything. It happens every 2 or 3 years. Most likely, the worst case scenario is violence erupts in Bangkok, the military gets pissed off, so intervenes, conducts a coup, boots Yingluck to the curb, and takes over the government. The last time that happened, the majority of Thais didn't even notice. They seen a little blurb on the evening news while trying to get Somchai to eat his vegetables, that the military has taken over the government, and they continued on with their daily lives.Your such an impeckerble source of info on what the Thais are really like Matt so I wonder why your statement about whats gonna happen looks to be so wrong. Done you live in Chain Mai these days yourself? Story is called "Red wave set to swamp Bangkok" http://www.smh.com.au/world/-31tv2.html

I was in Silom tonight and it was very busy with tourists and locals all enjoying the carnival atmosphere of the area. Soi 4 was busy like Christmas Eve."There's none so blind as those who will not see". Silom is not Bangkok just as Pattaya is not Thailand. http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/29/ ... -thailand/ (http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/29/down-and-out-in-thailand/)

[focusedinthai]

I actually gave you the benefit of the doubt and read this 'so-called' journalistic article you posted. Surely you don't believe that one-sided crap do you? If you do, well, I'm not sure what to say. Here is one quote from hundreds of ludicrous statements in this article that you seem to think tells the 'real story': "He introduced universal health care, virtually free, and excellent." EXCELLENT? Have you been in a government hospital? Have you tried to use the 'so-called' universal health care in this country (ok - I realize that we don't qualify, but have you met a Thai (perhaps boyfriend) that has had to use it)? Most Thais I know would rather continue to suffer at home than go to a government facility where they will likely only get sicker. So - you go ahead and be paranoid and read articles that paint such a rosy picture of one side of Thailand, and an evil one of the others, and the rest of us will continue in reality with the millions of Thai's that realize their country is far from perfect, but realize that 'what country is'? Get outside of a few a areas of Bangkok and you will realize that most Thai's couldn't give a fuck about what is going with the 'elite' in Thailand. They have their own lives to worry about and they are perfectly happy and protest free.

Cheers!



I was in Silom tonight and it was very busy with tourists and locals all enjoying the carnival atmosphere of the area. Soi 4 was busy like Christmas Eve."There's none so blind as those who will not see". Silom is not Bangkok just as Pattaya is not Thailand. http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/29/ ... -thailand/ (http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/29/down-and-out-in-thailand/)

[ikarus]

It is not that easy to be an independent politician in Thailand. Khun Chuwit is trying to vote (apparently unsuccessfully)
http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/701 ... 014/page-4 (http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/701358-thailand-live-sunday-2-feb-2014/page-4)

I actually gave you the benefit of the doubtHow very kind.

[lego]

Regarding universal health care, I actually give the "Good Doctor" Thaksin quite some credit. Anyone interested in seeing how a country without access to even the most basic of health care for the poor looks like doesn't need to venture very far from Thailand, they could just take a good look around in Cambodia.

Sure, Thai government hospitals are often not excellent at all. I've been to some, both in Bangkok and in the sticks (only as a visitor), and from my impressions they range from half-decent to outright scary. But they're THAT much better than nothing at all, even in the worst case. So I think that's really a point where even the haters should be fair and concede that Thaksin's 30 baht health coverage scheme was an important milestone.

I think that's really a point where even the haters should be fair and concede that Thaksin's 30 baht health coverage scheme was an important milestone.The haters will concede no such thing, they prefer to believe one corrupt politician (Suthep) over another (Thaksin) because, basically, they believe everything they read in the "newspaper".

[focusedinthai]

You actually missed the point. Did you read the article I was referring to? I would encourage you to do that before remarking about the Thai medical system. It is what it is - I'm not denying that - but the original poster was believing in an article that states that the medical system in Thailand is 'excellent'. I would hesitate to say even Thaksin himself would label the government hospitals as being excellent. Get the point?

As to the 'haters'. I find it quite ironic that expats are making comments about the Thai political system. You both talk like you really know what is going on. That is quite noble of you considering most average Thai's don't have a fucking clue about their government because, as you say, both sides are corrupt and the system is pretty much beyond repair in their eyes. Since Kommentariat seems to know so much about the process, perhaps he should be on television educating the Thais about which side to believe and why...


Regarding universal health care, I actually give the "Good Doctor" Thaksin quite some credit. Anyone interested in seeing how a country without access to even the most basic of health care for the poor looks like doesn't need to venture very far from Thailand, they could just take a good look around in Cambodia.

Sure, Thai government hospitals are often not excellent at all. I've been to some, both in Bangkok and in the sticks (only as a visitor), and from my impressions they range from half-decent to outright scary. But they're THAT much better than nothing at all, even in the worst case. So I think that's really a point where even the haters should be fair and concede that Thaksin's 30 baht health coverage scheme was an important milestone.

Thank you boygeenyus. If the Thais are as ignorant of their political system as voters in every country I've ever visited are of their own I wouldn't waste my breath.

[corky]

I was in Silom tonight and it was very busy with tourists and locals all enjoying the carnival atmosphere of the area. Soi 4 was busy like Christmas Eve."There's none so blind as those who will not see". Silom is not Bangkok just as Pattaya is not Thailand. http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/29/ ... -thailand/ (http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/29/down-and-out-in-thailand/)
Thanks for the link тАУ very amusing. Who would have thought that 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall someone was still writing such slanted, inaccurate and emotive neo-Marxist claptrap?
You must have Googled for a long time to find that тАШjournalistтАЩ although I do note from his bio that he is also a novelist.
Indeed Silom may not be Bangkok just as Pattaya may not be Thailand, but Thailand is not Ukraine or Egypt or Turkey or Syria. Journalists have to earn a living by selling their copy to media who in turn have to sell it on to the public. Sensationalism sells but the boring truth does not.
I note that you have not commented on the fact that there were many more murders and much more violence in Chicago last year but there do not seem to be any tourist travel warnings about going to that city. Maybe thatтАЩs just an inconvenient truth?

[lego]

You actually missed the point. Did you read the article I was referring to?

It wasn't my intention to discuss this particular article, beyond questioning their "Excellent" mark for Thai government hospitals.
It WAS my intention to contribute my own experiences with Thai government hospitals, and what I personally think about the 30 baht health care scheme initiated by Dr. Thaksin.

My favourite headline from the election "PM Yingluk cast her vote in Bunkum District"

"You must have Googled for a long time to find that тАШjournalistтАЩ." {corky, passim} You must have a very tenuous grasp on how the Internet works and its various tips'n'tricks if you think I googled for it at all.

[ikarus]

Avoid BKK.

A real battle broke out in Lak Sri District office in BKK. For those who still did not get it. Let me explain the situation in BKK: fascist Joker holds a huge metropolis as a hostage for three months now. Just get out until it is too late.

There is now plenty of evidence (including photos and videos) indicating that the shooting spree at Lak Sri district office was due to armed bandits which call themselves anti-government protesters. Clearly, Joker tries to disrupt tomorrow elections. Make no mistake: after February 2 the crisis will enter new more violent stage.

Ikarus, is it time for your lithium pill? You post the most manic, scaremongering nonsense I have read in a long time.

For those who don't know the whereabouts of Lak Si, its just outside the old Don Muang airport - at least a 40 minute drive to Silom & Suriwong (the area of Bangkok that most members of this board are interested).
I was in Silom tonight and it was very busy with tourists and locals all enjoying the carnival atmosphere of the area. Soi 4 was busy like Christmas Eve.

To put your alarm and anxiety into perspective ... did you know that in 2013 the City of Chicago alone had 372 people shot and killed; 448 total homicides and 1778 shot and wounded. How many governmental travel warnings are there for Chicago?
With closure of two protest stages they expand Silom-Lumpiny site, creating the so-called Silom tamboon. The safety situation in Silom area will continue to deteriorate. As I mentioned in my recent post, the crisis enters in a more violent phase
(and this is not my private opinion).
I recall I had very good time in Fellujah (up to a point). When they start shooting in soi Twilight, I guess it is time for your medication.

[ikarus]

ikarus, with respect, the one spreading the most propaganda on this thread is no other than you. By far.

Note that I didn't use the term "feudal" myself, and not just in this most recent post you've quoted, because I think it's unnecessarily loaded. That aside, what you've written doesn't make any sense "on the ground". Those who demonstrate now and those who demonstrated before effectively just replace one brand of "degenerated elite" (to use your term) by another one, if they succeed. I've yet to see a movement in Thailand that really challenges the status quo.

To be clear, I don't think that people in general "are ready to die for their feudal rulers" because they believe it's their destiny or duty or anything like that. I'd think many of them feverishly believe in their side's propaganda, on both sides. That's why you have family members and neighbors assault each other over political disputes, and similar ugly developments like this. My point is, they're being used. By both sides. In my personal opinion, any Western-educated foreigner who takes sides in this conflict and is too blind to see that they are equally bad is much dumber than the "pawns" on the ground, who don't have the benefit of being trained critical thinkers.
From a probabilistic standpoint, it is much easier to assume that you are delusional rather than 60 millions of Thais. If you have ever been to Thailand (which I doubt), you need to get out more frequently and talk to people. I guess, thre were people in 2006 who were delusional when they greeted miitary coup with flowers. Nowdays, thre e are none.
I frankly see no reason to continue this discussion.

[lego]

From a probabilistic standpoint, it is much easier to assume that you are delusional rather than 60 millions of Thais. If you have ever been to Thailand (which I doubt), you need to get out more frequently and talk to people. I guess, thre were people in 2006 who were delusional when they greeted miitary coup with flowers. Nowdays, thre e are none.
It's quite simple. Neither are most Thais delusional, nor am I. You, on the other hand, are posting scaremongering drivel (such as, "Get out while you can!") for all to see. Questioning if people discussing with you are actually in Thailand is at least equally ridiculous. If it's really important for you to ascertain that, feel free to arrange a meeting in Bangkok (if you don't shit your pants), otherwise just cut that crap.


I frankly see no reason to continue this discussion.
Then don't. Let's just sit back and see what will happen. You and I won't change it anyway. ;)