Thailand in recession?

I see Thailand is now officially in recession http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23751846

Cheaper boys more boys better baht to the $ rate???

[Nirish guy]

God love us all aa if they handle the news of recession the same way that they handle the news that business is down in their bars then prices are sure to be going UP week after week to allow for the perceived down turn in trade that they "think" they're experiencing just because they've heard that they are on TV - whether that be true or NOT !!! :-(

[Dodger]

Bangkok Bank
21 August, 2013

USD: 50-100: 31.43 (buy)

Come on baby...you can do it...let's hit 34.0.

[jfarmer017]

All of southeast Asia looks to be heading for a serious unravelling. India and Indonesia are in particularly bad shape, and Thailand and Malaysia are heading towards serious debt problems. Easy money hot off the US and Japanese printing presses helped inflate credit bubbles, and with sines of weaning coming from the Fed, capital is starting to flow out of those countries, with little their local central banks can do about it.

All of southeast Asia looks to be heading for a serious unraveling.

1997 all over again.

[jfarmer017]

1997 all over again.

Well, not exactly. While a significant financial deleveraging seems to be on the horizon for the region, there is good evidence that a repeat of the '97 catastrophe is not likely. Most importantly, debt is much more diverse than it was in 1997, when it was virtually all foreign-denominated.

[Zebedee]

Farmer , are you simply quoting the ticker tapes/ Bloomberg etc or are you giving us the benefit of some believable number crunching ? If so please continue.

[jfarmer017]

Hmm...I am not sure if I should take that as snark or not. I am not an economist, but I am a businessperson, and I do have investments at home and abroad, so I am a bit more than just a curious spectator. That said, like the overwhelming number of people, I get my information from the financial press and from commentators I consider trustworthy sources. I am willing to bet that the original poster got his information about the Thai recession from the press rather than analyzing raw economic data put out by the central bank. What has been going on in places like India and Indonesia and the rest of southeast Asia have been all over the financial news in the past few weeks, and the question over a possible repeat of the 1997 financial crisis has been debated. I have been following it and have come to my own conclusions, which I shared here. I also wrote in April 2013 in response to a post about the appreciation of Thai baht:

"You can thank Ben Bernanke of the US Federal Reserve and Haruhiko Kuroda of the Bank of Japan for part of this. With slashed interest rates in much of the developed world and central banks flooding the markets with liquidity, foreign capital is pouring into Thailand and driving up the value of the baht. It's probably a safe bet that it will continue to appreciate this year. I imagine Thai exporters are getting pretty nervous now. With Thailand taking on more and more debt, I'd also keep my eyes peeled for an asset bubble."

If there is something I wrote that you disagree with, wish to challenge me on, or want to discuss in more detail, I would be more than happy to engage with you further.

[Zebedee]

Sir, please forgive me if I came across as a"smirk" .....not sure what that means,guessing its not complimentary ...
But in any event I apologise if I was disrespectful..
Yes there has been a huge outflow of capital from Asia to European / western markets,note not US! In the last week or so, hence the increase in the US/THB. Rate for our posters benefit.
Of course the trick is to prejudge events..... Maybe you can tell be next weeks lottery numbers!

[jfarmer017]

Snark, not smirk, is a slang term that comes from combining "snide" and "remark." Given that text does not give us the benefit of tone, it is not always immediately discernible when somebody is being sarcastic and when they are being genuine. Your original comment seemed to quarrel with me a bit, though I am still not sure what exactly I said that you have an issue with. I can't tell you next week's lottery numbers, and I can't tell you what is definitely going to happen to the economy of a region that includes more than a third of the world's population. However, I can make assumptions and educated guesses about what I believe will happen based on historical patterns and current trends.

[Zebedee]

Snark, not smirk, is a slang term that comes from combining "snide" and "remark." Given that text does not give us the benefit of tone, it is not always immediately discernible when somebody is being sarcastic and when they are being genuine. Your original comment seemed to quarrel with me a bit, though I am still not sure what exactly I said that you have an issue with. I can't tell you next week's lottery numbers, and I can't tell you what is definitely going to happen to the economy of a region that includes more than a third of the world's population. However, I can make assumptions and educated guesses about what I believe will happen based on historical patterns and current trends.

Thank you jfarmer, I haven't read any of your previous posts and I'm afraid I thought you were another cut and paste merchant , I was wrong, you actually know what you are talking about. You bring constructive ideas and knowledge to the forum, unlike many of us.