Thailand tourists 2005 slump

[wowpow]

The Bangkok Post 22nd May 06 - Thailand tourism slumps despite record budgets - IMTIAZ MUQBIL

"Fear of ghosts in tsunami-hit areas and instability in southern Thailand exacted a devastating toll on Thailand's 2005 visitor arrivals. Final figures for 2005 have not yet been released. However, some very significant clues are contained in the final figures for January-September, which were released last week and show total arrivals of 8.18 million, down 3.19% over the same period of 2004. The final tally for 2005 is expected to be around the 10 million mark, well short of the target of 13.3 million and about the same as that recorded in the worst years of tourism this decade _ 2001, the year of the 9/11 attacks, and 2003, the year of Sars and the US-led attack on Iraq.

The shortfall threatens to become another embarrassing political liability for the in-limbo Thaksin administration which coughed up record budgets for tourism revival in the aftermath of the December 2004 tsunami, and is still struggling with the unrest in the country's three southernmost provinces.

It may also affect the future of TAT governor Juthamas Siriwan, who, in spite of reaching the retirement age of 60 this year, is rumoured to be seeking an extension of her four-year contract due to expire in September. Having developed close ties with Somkid Jatusripitak, the caretaker deputy prime minister, on the basis of her tourism marketing credentials, she needs to show results to justify the huge amounts spent last year.

Poor figures will put Thailand in a bad light relative to other Asean countries, nearly all of which reported arrivals growth last year: Singapore up 7.4% to 8.94 million, Malaysia up 4.6% to 16.43 million and the Philippines up 14.6% to 2.6 million. Thailand will land up in the same camp as Indonesia, another formerly high-flying destination when it was politically and economically stable.

An analysis of the visitor profiles for January-September 2005 (by country of residence), posted on the TAT website last week, provided clear indicators of the sources of and reasons for slowdown:
- A noticeable trend is a steep fall in first-time visitors to 3,211,225, down 23.77% over the same period of 2004.
- The key markets of Northeast Asia were worst hit. First-time visitors from China were down 25.51% to 335,674, Hong Kong -58.90% to 111,137, Korea -17.35% to 406,980, Taiwan -50.72% to 163,469, and Japan -23.49% to 312,845. First timers from another key market, Malaysia, fell 20.86% to 249,411. These markets are Thailand's top sources of visitor arrivals; in 2004, they generated a combined total of 5.5 million arrivals, or 48% of that year's total.
- Although all six source markets (except Hong Kong) did show considerable increases in repeat visitors, the overall total was not enough to compensate for the sharp downturns in first timers. In the Northeast Asian countries, tour operators reported that massive publicity about the tsunami-related casualties had generated a major fear of spirits and ghosts haunting the beaches of Phuket.
- First-time visitors fell across the board, with the exception of Brunei, Laos and Saudi Arabia. First timers from Europe were down 19.13% to 703,568 and the Americas -5.68% to 202,393. They were also down from other key source markets like India (-3.08% to 119,553) and Australia (-19.05% to 100,726).

- The country was saved largely by strong growth in repeat visitors (+17.24% to 4,975,258). In addition to those leisure travellers who are familiar with Thailand and keep coming back, there was strong growth in convention delegates (+397% to 433,409). Business travellers totalled 711,091, a statistically stagnant 'growth' of 0.14% over January-September 2004.

In 2005, the TAT spent a lot of time, money and effort to prop up visitor arrivals, especially from China. A number of senior delegations visited China to generate interest, based on the 30th anniversary of the opening of bilateral diplomatic relations. An agreement was also signed with Chinese tour operators for tourism promotion including tactical advertising campaigns designed to generate quick-fix results.

The statistics being publicised are the 'positive' ones, such as arrivals at Bangkok international airport in the first quarter of 2006, which are showing strong growth over the same period of 2005.

Much will depend on the final arrivals tally from Malaysia, Thailand's top source market. In January-September 2005, arrivals totalled 988,675, a fall of 3.4% over the same period of 2004. The fact that Malaysian arrivals at Bangkok airport are up indicates that there has been a decline in overland arrivals via the southern border points."

Imtiaz Muqbil is executive editor of Travel Impact Newswire, an e-mailed feature and analysis service focusing on the Asia Pacific.

Bars and Clubs closing at 1.00am does nothing to help tourism either.
Tourists do not like to be told when the nanny state expects them to go to bed.

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[Marsilius]

But we're talking about tourists - who are the very people who WON'T know where else to go.

But we're talking about tourists - who are the very people who WON'T know where else to go.

I've met a few who were afraid to venture off Soi Sahm--Not that they wanted to...but that was then.

.... Ive actually been to a couple of these "dens" that are open till the early hours of the morning - not worth wasting your money on - yes, they are open till 6 in the morning and and a handful of groups of thais into themselves singing karoake. That aint my idea of a night out.

The main factor is the tsunami. Closing hours have been enforced for over five years now...it's a little late to blame a slump on that.

[Marsilius]

It would be very naive to think that the effect of the early closing campaign would necessarily be immediate. Not everyone reads this board or an up to date guide book. Instead they rely on their travel agent for advice - and agents aren't exactly going to be keen on pointing that out the restrictions to would-be customers. It's only when tourists get home and talk to friends at work, in bars etc. that the news starts to slowly circulate: "Hey, I hear you're thinking of Thailand for your vacation... Well, I went last year and you won't believe it but..."

Maybe we're now, after five years, just starting to see an impact. Those who might have thought about going to Thailand again after a gap of a few years (not everyone is like us and takes almost all our vacations there!) start to decide not to and the word starts circulating among first timers as described above, etc.

So, I guess if they turned around and allowed 24-hour bar openings, it would take another five years to get the word out. Oh well.

Thailand is definitely less fun and more nanny state that it was before Thaksin. But what country in Asia competes with Thailand on fun and price, certainly not Singapore. I think the word is out that Thailand is less fun, and more Euros and Yankos are choosing other alternatives in other continents.

Like where? Ibiza?

Like where? Ibiza?
Lot of places, Canary Islands, Puerto Vallarta, Rio de Janeiro, Capetown, Greece, Cuba, Costa Rica, etc. etc.

Thanskin and his social order really blew a hole in the tourist business. Yes the early bar closings contributed but there were also other reasons that went with the closings. The raids on the bars the age limits the increasing drink prices due to higher tax on alcohol. The war on drugs and the innocents caught up in that. The sharp rise in street crimes and the blackmailing of foreigners. The corruption of the police and officials and the bribes being paid just to do business there. Also you have the asian flu scare. While seperately each of these don't have a lot of impact but when combined the numbers add up. The only good the social order did was to elevate the upperclass and leave the poorer class a lot poorer.

Thanskin and his social order really blew a hole in the tourist business. Yes the early bar closings contributed but there were also other reasons that went with the closings. The raids on the bars the age limits the increasing drink prices due to higher tax on alcohol. The war on drugs and the innocents caught up in that. The sharp rise in street crimes and the blackmailing of foreigners. The corruption of the police and officials and the bribes being paid just to do business there. Also you have the asian flu scare. While seperately each of these don't have a lot of impact but when combined the numbers add up. The only good the social order did was to elevate the upperclass and leave the poorer class a lot poorer.

Blackmailing of foreigners?

I've got news for you...probably less than 1% of visitors to Thailand have ever heard of the war on drugs, any raids on bars, or any of the other things you mention. The police have been corrupt in Thailand long before Thaksin arrived. Probably from the beginning of time. Take a look at who the tourists to Thailand are: package groups from China. Backpackers. Swedish families at resorts. None of them know or care about any of the things you mention.

Ah...perhaps sex tourists might be aware of closing times, raids, etc. But these are the people that Thaksin wants to discourage from coming to Thailand, so the plan must be working perfectly.

Good point, but I bet it is much greater than 1 percent.

Why don't you go to the floating market and take a poll? I'll bet you less than one in a hundred have even the slightest clue about Thai current events. How much do you know or care about a country's domestic politics before you travel there? There is a small number of "tourists" -- like those who subscribe to this and other boards -- who have an inkling. But those types number hundreds, maybe a couple thousand, out of millions and millions and millions of people just out for a holiday.

Why don't you go to the floating market and take a poll? I'll bet you less than one in a hundred have even the slightest clue about Thai current events. How much do you know or care about a country's domestic politics before you travel there? There is a small number of "tourists" -- like those who subscribe to this and other boards -- who have an inkling. But those types number hundreds, maybe a couple thousand, out of millions and millions and millions of people just out for a holiday.
Well, major Thai news is covered pretty well in mainstream papers like the Washington Post. Thailand issues are mentioned more than you think, just today there was a major article about HIV vaccine trials in Chonburi. So again, more than 1 percent.

[Smiles]

I've got news for you . . . The police have been corrupt in Thailand long before Thaksin arrived. Probably from the beginning of time ...
Spot on.

The Thai 'system' of corruption is 100% institutionalized from the bottom & most petty (the local Gov't village bureacrat ... the traffic cop) to the top & most scandalous and disgraceful (high Gov't ministers ... Judges etc etc). Thai folks know it, & accept it (unfortunately) as part of doing everyday life and business in their own country ~ it's the 'downside' to "... mai pen rai ... ".

Case in point (from the horses mouth): A Thai can get a drivers licence by 2 methods ... the "long" way (taking the written, the road test, waiting 2-4 weeks), or the "short" way (paying under the counter and getting it the next day ~ maybe earlier depending on the amount). 'Right' or 'wrong' play no part in it.

Cheers ...

You're forgetting who the average tourist to Thailand is: a Korean, Taiwanese, or Chinese package tourist. Hardly someone who reads the Washington Post. When you visit home, how many of your relatives or friends even know who the Prime Minister of Thailand is? Heck, half probably think they speak Taiwanese in Thailand. How quick you are to forget how ignorant 99.9999% of the world's population is.

Whatever the reason is for the 2005 tourist figures being a disappointment, 2006 doesn't look any better. The first quarter saw Thailand make the front pages of not a few newspapers around the world - especially regional Asian newspapers - with photos of huge protest demonstrations and the threat of violence in the streets. The political limbo continuing, who would buy a package tour for 2 months away when he can't predict whether the demonstrators will resume?

The tsunami was a one-off event; repeat visitors know Thailand's geography well enough to know that except for Phuket, Bangkok and other places weren't affected. Their numbers have shown increases in 2005. But the continuing political tension and risk of turning serious ("What if a curfew is imposed? That will ruin a holiday!" some will say), in Bangkok, the point of entry no less, will deter even repeat visitors.

Take a look at who the tourists to Thailand are: package groups from China. Backpackers. Swedish families at resorts.Indeed - all high net worth travellers providing a large, much-need boost to the Thai economy :bounce:


Ah...perhaps sex tourists might be aware of closing times, raids, etc. But these are the people that Thaksin wants to discourage from coming to Thailand, so the plan must be working perfectly.Indeed again. People like boygeenyus and me, who frequent go-go bars from time to time and "off" boys are not "sex tourists" (we live here), so we can afford to condescend to you other scum :cherry:

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[cottmann]

You're forgetting who the average tourist to Thailand is: a Korean, Taiwanese, or Chinese package tourist. Hardly someone who reads the Washington Post. When you visit home, how many of your relatives or friends even know who the Prime Minister of Thailand is? Heck, half probably think they speak Taiwanese in Thailand. How quick you are to forget how ignorant 99.9999% of the world's population is.

Um, not quite true, at least according to TAT figures for 2004 - the latest full set available. They state that 57.29% of tourists to Thailand came from East Asia, of whom the largest groups were, respectively, Malaysians (13.43%), Japanese (10.34%) and Korea (6.9%) Chinese (at 6.02%) were the fourth largest East Asian group. Among Europeans, Britons (7.31%) and Germans (3.83%) were the two largest groups - Swedes were only 2.02%. Americans were 5.11% and Australians 2.89%.

An Australian colleague of mine recounts that he was asked to take the TOEFL test when he applied to graduate school in the USA because the school was unaware that Australians speak English - well, a sort of English.