Stage is set for massive political conflict in Thailand

[Narakmak]

Thaksin and sis are playing hard ball now. A Thaksin pardon measure is now on the table. If this goes forward, will there be blood? As if the floods weren't bad enough, even bigger trouble is brewing in Thailand today.


Yingluck ran saying she was about reconciliation and not about just helping one man, older brother. Nobody in their right mind believed her. And so it now comes to this.

Why does this matter to Gay Thailand? Do you really have to ask. If there is blood in the streets, that's not so gay now, is it?



Opposition leader lashes out at attempted Thaksin pardon



BANGKOK, Nov 16 - Thailand's Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva on Wednesday said it was unacceptable that the cabinet on Tuesday considered an amnesty decree which could benefit fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra saying the move must be seen as destroying the rule of law and could spark another round of political crisis.

The Democrat Party leaderтАЩs criticism came after the cabinet meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung on Tuesday secretly considered a decree seeking a royal pardon for convicts amid speculation that convicted ex-premier Thaksin could benefit from the move.

Mr Thaksin, ousted in a coup in 2006, was sentenced in absentia in 2008 to two years imprisonment for abuse of power by helping his then wife acquire a parcel of prime Bangkok commercial land at a price far below the market value.

Mr Abhisit asserted he and the Democrat Party could not accept the cabinet's action as there were some irregularities and the move was against principles of transparency, in particular the revision of a clause which allows a fugitive found guilty of corruption to be eligible to seek a royal pardon.

He said the revised decree opened way for convicts or fugitives to seek royal pardons without serving jail terms, as well as allowing those who have been convicted of particular charges such as corruption, earlier disqualified from seeking amnesty, to apply for it.

"This will deepen the rift," Mr Abhisit said. "The prime minister intended not to be present at the cabinet meeting."

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, Mr Thaksin's youngest sister, did not chair TuesdayтАЩs cabinet meeting, saying she could not return from Sing Buri province where she visited flood victims as her helicopter had no radar for night flights.

The Democrat leader argued, however, that despite the premier's absence, she could review the cabinet decision and that she could not deny her responsibility on the matter.

Mr Abhisit urged the government to stop pushing the amnesty move for "only one person" and said the premier still has a chance to review the case to avoid possible chaos.

Opposition chief whip Jurin Laksanavisit said the opposition resolved to question cabinet members over the issue in parliament so the public will be informed of the facts. тАЬThe main cause for concern is that if the criteria for royal pardon have been revised, it is meant to serve one particular person,тАЭ Mr Jurin said.

He noted that in the past the convicts must partially serve their jail terms before they are eligible for a royal pardon.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung conceded today that the cabinet secretly discussed the amnesty decree yesterday, but said he could not disclose the details as no conclusion had yet been reached.

Mr Chalerm noted that the government has no authority to seek a royal amnesty, but it is the duty of the Justice Ministry to set up a 20-member panel to study the appropriate criteria for those eligible to apply for royal pardon.

The justice ministry will forward its decision for consideration by the cabinet and the Council of State, the government's legal arm. If all parties concerned agree with the proposal, the amnesty decree will be presented to His Majesty the King for royal endorsement.

Referring to the annual royal pardon for the convicts to be set free Dec 5 as part of the celebrations of the king's birthday, Mr Chalerm said some 26,000 convicts are eligible to be granted royal pardon this year.

The deputy premier however declined to comment whether the government's move will benefit Mr Thaksin. (


-- TNA 2011-11-16MCOT online news

[SlaveDriver]

Thailand needs political reconciliation and that should be inclusive. Thaksin is an important part of the reconciliation. Whether we like it or not it is a fact of Thailands politics and future.

The process should be fair and inclusive and should include every player so that Thailand can have a lasting political and social stability and the country with so much potential can move forward for the betterment of everyone.

[Smiles]

Going the Royal Pardon route is an interesting and foxy way of getting Thaksin back ... and so Thai Politico!

Give this aspect some thought: rather than introducing legislation in Parliament, or attempting a constitutional amendment, a Royal Pardon ('amnesty') will, at the end of the day, become a 'Royal' decree, and thus any criticism of it could be interpreted as 'Lese Majesty'. The legislative or constitutional route will for certain open up a very nasty can of worms. But now, if that can contains an implied Lese Majesty threat, politicians may well think twice about opening it up.

Looks like Ms Yingluck ('Badluck') Shinawatra was obviously informed of this (secret) Cabinet debate and was probably advised to 'take a helicopter ride' somewhere.
She did, but could not get back in time because she was informed that the helicopter was not equipped to do night flying (right: an army helicopter!!). According to an army 'source' yesterday in the Post, the helicopter was indeed able to fly at night.
Typical.


" ... The process should be fair and inclusive and should include every player so that Thailand can have a lasting political and social stability and the country with so much potential can move forward for the betterment of everyone ... "
:laughing3: And may I ask which brand-name of rose-coloured set of spectacles did you groggily choose this morning?

[Marsilius]

And may I ask exactly where this supposed potential lies?

Any economic potential (on which any other "potentials" will have, by necessity, to be based) will be held back immeasurably by centuries-old ingrained cultural and social attitudes among the bulk of the population. The foundations for the nation-wide and socially inclusive economic development needed to exploit any "potential" are simply not there. Moreover, it is, arguably, not in the ruling class's interest to construct them.

[Narakmak]

And may I ask exactly where this supposed potential lies?

Any economic potential (on which any other "potentials" will have, by necessity, to be based) will be held back immeasurably by centuries-old ingrained cultural and social attitudes among the bulk of the population. The foundations for the nation-wide and socially inclusive economic development needed to exploit any "potential" are simply not there. Moreover, it is, arguably, not in the ruling class's interest to construct them.
I'd love to engage you in discussion, but your post is incoherent. I realize you don't think it is, but it is. Try again, or forget it.

[Marsilius]

Rather than attempting to be supercilious, perhaps you would have the grace to explain where the incoherence lies?

[luvthai-2]

I doubt the King would sign a pardon that involved Thaksin. The Generals will not approve and could result in another coup.

[Narakmak]

I doubt the King would sign a pardon that involved Thaksin. The Generals will not approve and could result in another coup.
But this isn't a pardon for Thaksin. It's a pardon for many thousands of people, including the big one. According to prominent democrat Korn, such governmental decries have always been signed by the King before almost automatically. If he doesn't sign it, not only is he not pardoning Thaksin, he will be hurting many thousands of Thais that may deserve this pardon. It's a tricky game obviously.

[Narakmak]

Rather than attempting to be supercilious, perhaps you would have the grace to explain where the incoherence lies?
Life is too short.

[Marsilius]

Rather than attempting to be supercilious, perhaps you would have the grace to explain where the incoherence lies?
Life is too short.

Clearly, any grace that I had all too naively assumed that you might be capable of displaying in civilised debate does not exist.

I will, however, attempt to explain my original position in a way that even you might be able to comprehend.

1. The development of Thailand's various "potentials" (social development, redistribution of wealth, eradication of rural poverty, educational improvement, better national infrastructure, etc. etc.) is dependent on a thriving economic base which allows such things to be afforded.

2. But a thriving national economic base (as opposed to the prosperity of a small number of super-rich individuals) is widely held back by culture, tradition and old established ways of looking at life. To take one example: Buddhism, like many religions, acts to prevent the accumulation of capital by individuals in traditional rural communities where surpluses are likely to be "invested" supernaturally and non-productively (in an economic sense) in such things as gifts to temples or to monks, spending on religious ceremonies, etc etc. The same phenomenon was observed long ago by Max Weber who postulated that modern capitalism could only have been born in Protestant societies where profit was seen as a sign of divine favour and something to be reinvested, rather than as a means to curry favour with the deity by using it to demonstrate the donor's "good [i.e. religious] works.".

3. The almost total absence in rural Thailand of a sizeable body of small-scale, profit-driven enterprises (including farming ones) following policies of constant further investment for growth means that Thai capitalism has an extremely narrow base controlled by a very small elite of the urban ruling class. The latter have nothing to gain - and a very great deal to lose - by challenging the status quo and promoting national and socially-inclusive economic development.

[Narakmak]

Worse than I first thought. You're totally off topic to the OP. But thanks for sharing.

[Marsilius]

You're totally off topic to the OP.

That would be you, then! Come on, don't be so modest... Perhaps if you'd actually written "You're totally off my topic" it might have occurred even to you just how ridiculous that sounds.

I was unaware that the Forum stipulated that threads had to stay fixedly focussed on the original proposition.

If you care to examine this particular thread's history, you'd see that Smiles and I were responding to what we considered a tendentious, if perhaps throwaway, comment by SlaveDriver.

But I doubt you'll bother going back to check that - after all, life's too short.

[cdnmatt]

heh, I absolutely love modern day politicians. The shit they come up with is better than most TV shows.

"I couldn't make it to the extremely important cabinet session, because my helicopter doesn't fly at night due to radar". LOL. Come on, if you're going to outright lie to the public, at least put a little bit of effort into the lie.

The radar doesn't work at night? WTF? It's doesn't give a shit about night or day, hence the concept of RADAR!

[martin911]

Whatever anybodys says re Taksin says the fact remains ____ The Thai people voted in a majority government in which his younger sister was prominent in and most people understood that their vote was a vote for Taksim himself ----- he has immense support here -- and given the climate here
over the last few years well it might not be the worst thing to happen if he were to return

[lexusgs]

Whatever anybodys says re Taksin says the fact remains ____ The Thai people voted in a majority government in which his younger sister was prominent in and most people understood that their vote was a vote for Taksim himself ----- he has immense support here -- and given the climate here
over the last few years well it might not be the worst thing to happen if he were to return

Agreed Martin911,

A fair number of the population believe he is the only person who has been able to get things done here for a long time. Like him or loathe him HE has popular support.

A fair number of the population believe he is the only person who has been able to get things done here for a long time. Like him or loathe him HE has popular support.

So did Hitler!

[martin911]

A fair number of the population believe he is the only person who has been able to get things done here for a long time. Like him or loathe him HE has popular support.

So did Hitler!

Possibily a little extreme as a comparision do u think ???

Talking to people over the election time earlier this year i got the distinct impression from many Thais that if he were to return it might not be the worst thing to happen and that at least the country could start to move in one direction rather than going around in circles like the stalemate of the last few years !!

My first visit to Thailand was in 2002 -- i am an avid newspaper reader and i clearly remember thinking at the time (he was PM then ) that he got an extraordinary amount of media coverage --- and 9 odd years on not much has changed in that period ---the man is a very visible part of modern day Thailand (for good or bad i dont know ) -

I am not so sure that there will be massive conflict in the coming months if the decree brings him back --, due to the Floods etc I dont think the country has the stomach for type of yellow v red shirts conflicts we saw in the past

So the timing is probably good for him to get back in now (i rem reading at the time that he benifited media wise from the Tsunami also )
His poor sister will prob be the happiest person in Thailand if he returns --- talk about stepping into such a shitty job as she has gotten into the last few months --!!!

Anyway time will tell as it is said

Possibily a little extreme as a comparision do u think ??

Not really, ask the families of the 3000 plus who were murdered back in 2003 when he was P.M.

http://www.csdp.org/news/news/thailand.htm

[martin911]

Possibily a little extreme as a comparision do u think ??

Not really, ask the families of the 3000 plus who were murdered back in 2003 when he was P.M.

http://www.csdp.org/news/news/thailand.htm

Not really!!! -- you say

I think that comparing T with hitler is a little far fetched yes !!!

Was that the time he went to war on the drug trade here ???? -- hardly comparable to the amount of innocent people Hitler has slaughtered !!!

hardly comparable to the amount of innocent people Hitler has slaughtered !!!

So that makes it OK does it Martin? One person murdered is too many, and let's face it most autocrats have to start somewhere...

[martin911]

hardly comparable to the amount of innocent people Hitler has slaughtered !!!

So that makes it OK does it Martin? One person murdered is too many, and let's face it most autocrats have to start somewhere...

No it cert does not make it Ok -- i never said anything of the sort so dont get your yfronts in a twist now dear !!

But i dont think the two are similar for comparison purposes either !!!!

[cdnmatt]

But i dont think the two are similar for comparison purposes either !!!!

I don't know. I don't think Thaksin has a very good moral compass, and he's willing to stretch the limits quite a bit to achieve his objectives. Just take a look at the last round of red shirt protests, which left a good chunk of Bangkok burnt to the ground. That was Thaksin pulling the strings, and he almost tore the entire country apart by doing it.

And of course the villagers like him. He gave them money, and bicycles, and shit. And no disrespect to the Issan villagers, because many of them are great people and good hearted, but they're not exactly intelligent. It's not like when casting their vote, they're taking into account how the new PM will approach foreign policy, free trade, tourism, expansion of the industrial sector, etc. They just think, "he gave my daughter a $50 bicycle six years ago, so he's awesome!".

That, and many villagers don't understand the fact that shit would have went downhill regardless of who was in power. Huge global financial crisis would have still happened, higher rate of inflation would have still happened, etc. They don't realize those things. They simply know 8 years ago when Thaksin was in power, things were better than they were today, so they're voting for Thaksin.

I don't know. I don't think Thaksin has a very good moral compass, and he's willing to stretch the limits quite a bit to achieve his objectives. Just take a look at the last round of red shirt protests, which left a good chunk of Bangkok burnt to the ground. That was Thaksin pulling the strings, and he almost tore the entire country apart by doing it etc.. etc..

I agree Matt and that was my point, as left unchecked, as history has proved time, and time again people like Taksin can and do flout most of the rules governing democratic countries. This is a man who had/has scant regard for human life, and enriched both himself, his family and his cronies whilst in power. He still, as you have rightly pointed out, pulls the strings from his base abroad.

isnt it funny that if you kill your own people in your own country it really gets people mad ...
yet our own prime ministers/ presidents have sent our own people to places where they had no option other than to get killed and we dont seem quiet so upset about that .. yikes more beer i dont need to get serious ... theres something good on the telly tonight ..

Actually Combat made a valid comparison, not extreme in the least, but he has allowed himself to be sidetracked into a body count.

His comparison was actually on popular support, and was perfectly valid on that basis.

As far as a body count is concerned , Thaksin V Margaret Thatcher would be a better comparison.

:occasion9:

Actually Combat made a valid comparison, not extreme in the least, but he has allowed himself to be sidetracked into a body count.

His comparison was actually on popular support, and was perfectly valid on that basis.

As far as a body count is concerned , Thaksin V Margaret Thatcher would be a better comparison.

:occasion9:
thats what i said ... get ur own ideas blurrrrrrrrrrr

[Narakmak]

People who care are already set on whether they like or dislike Thaksin, so nobody is going to change their minds based on forum posts.
Frankly, I posted this partly out of curiosity whether the board people here were interested in a discussion of a topical issue like this, or not. No judgment either way, just curious really.
To me the more useful discussion for foreigners is whether this very ballsy action by the Thaksin clone's secretly acting cabinet is going to trigger a new wave of national discord, possibly violent, and yes possibly a civil war. Hopefully not of course, but it is very predictable that there are strong factions in Thailand who dread and will fight a return of Thaksin because they understandably fear revenge. People who actually believe the Yingluck rhetoric that the big goal is reconciliation clearly don't understand how radical the move by the cabinet is. A fight from the opposition to Thaksin is definite. What that will look like, who will win, what form it takes, how long it takes to play out, is uncertain.

[martin911]

People who care are already set on whether they like or dislike Thaksin, so nobody is going to change their minds based on forum posts.
Frankly, I posted this partly out of curiosity whether the board people here were interested in a discussion of a topical issue like this, or not. No judgment either way, just curious really.
To me the more useful discussion for foreigners is whether this very ballsy action by the Thaksin clone's secretly acting cabinet is going to trigger a new wave of national discord, possibly violent, and yes possibly a civil war. Hopefully not of course, but it is very predictable that there are strong factions in Thailand who dread and will probably fight a return of Thaksin because they understandable fear revenge. People who actually believe the Yingluck rhetoric that the big goal is reconciliation clearly don't understand how radical the move by the cabinet is. A fight from the opposition to Thaksin is definite. What that will look like, who will win, what form it takes, how long it takes to play out, is uncertain.

I would like to comment on this but i fear it might get deleted AGAIN !!!!

Aunt we all waiting for something else to happen that we cant talk about hear that could lead to conflict?

[Narakmak]

Aunt we all waiting for something else to happen that we cant talk about hear that could lead to conflict?
Yes of course, that limits discussion, but I am sure we can cope.

Aunt we all waiting for something else to happen that we cant talk about hear that could lead to conflict?
Yes of course, that limits discussion, but I am sure we can cope.


You're BG's Aunt?

Kinky.

[Narakmak]

Aunt we all waiting for something else to happen that we cant talk about hear that could lead to conflict?
Yes of course, that limits discussion, but I am sure we can cope.


You're BG's Aunt?

Kinky.
Don't judge.

[Narakmak]

I doubt anyone here can express the potential coming crisis better than this Thai national poster from thaivisa, so I hope it's OK to post this here:

termsak at thaivisa.com

Exactly! Thank you for understanding what's going on. I could not have said it any better...I'm Thai and part of the political landscape here. I can vote, I pay a large sum of tax. I am not yellow shirt but I am very much against Thaksin coming back and taking over the country again. I have dealt with him and his cronies and I got only one word to describe him: Megalomaniac. In the past, it's always been the people vs Government/Military. Thaksin has created a new: People vs People and this is the reason why he is a VERY dangerous individual.

What seriously disturbs me is that some of the "educated" posters in here can't see thru it all....anyone with a bit of education (and logic and common sense) should see this, but they are somewhat blinded by the "fight for the poor/long live democracy" mentality that they don't realize that the person they worship i.e. Thaksin, is doing exactly the opposite of what they fight for. And even if they do see it, they are held hostage by their initial stance on siding with Thaksin so changing their mind in public would be embarrassing aka losing face.

By the blatant arrogant actions of this Government to bring back Thaksin during the floods, I can only see Thailand nose diving to another low with a lot of violent times coming up. Let me describe exactly what's going to happen:

Anti-Thaksin groups are currently being assembled and grows larger day by day. Street protests will start soon. Thaksin will have his red terrorist army countering the protests. Jatuporn and his motor mouth will start spreading propaganda and inciting violence again while Chalerm and Thaksin's brother in law Chief of Police will behind the scenes make sure rule of Red mob can proceed without legal actions. Bombs will be thrown at the anti Thaksin protesters. We will have Thaksin blaming the third and invisible hand again. A red shirt is caught on camera, Jatuporn will claim the broken record of "fake Red". This time the silent majority will be fed up and actually fight back with weapons...airport will be shut down waiting for the arrival....skip forward, either (hopefully) a coup or...civil war.

What Thailand needs is new blood. One that is neither Thaksin or Democrats...One that has some intelligence, integrity and genuinely trying to make Thailand a better place. Of course we will not get rid of corruption for the next couple of decades, but we need change NOW for a better future...but I'll say brace for the worst the next 12 months

Who care as long as the boys spread there legs.

[Narakmak]

Who care as long as the boys spread there legs.
I consider you the voice of this board on such matters. I posted this topic to gauge interest about Thai politics here. It ain't there. 'Nuff said. Spread those legs!

Who care as long as the boys spread there legs.
I consider you the voice of this board on such matters. I posted this topic to gauge interest about Thai politics here. It ain't there. 'Nuff said. Spread those legs!You post a messaage from another forum from a guy who claims hes a thai even if he is just because hes thai doesnt make it true.

[martin911]

Whether the guy on the thaivisa forum is thai/french or from mars doesnt really matter --the point he is putting across is quite interesting !!!!
Has made me reconsider some of my earlier posts as to whether it would be necessarily a bad thing if Taksin were allowed back

Either way it is out of our hands -- the crunch timing on this is coming up --The Kings birthday is Dec 5and Taksins daughter is getting married Dec 12 (inThailand)
So im sure he will want to be present for that if the decree gets forced through ( weekendpapers in bkk have quoted Taksin saying he had no knoweledge of any potential decree that would possibily be of value to him returning --- lol )

Either way it is out of our hands -- the crunch timing on this is coming up --The Kings birthday is Dec 5and Taksins daughter is getting married Dec 12 (inThailand)

With the dislike that has been previously shown to Toxsin from the monarch (Years ago during one of his birthday speeches he actually broke with protocol and publicly told Toxsin that "This is Thailand not Thaksinland") Prem still also wields a lot of power too so I for one think it very unlikely. Again TIT so anything could happen!

[martin911]

Either way it is out of our hands -- the crunch timing on this is coming up --The Kings birthday is Dec 5and Taksins daughter is getting married Dec 12 (inThailand)

With the dislike that has been previously shown to Toxsin from the monarch (Years ago during one of his birthday speeches he actually broke with protocol and publicly told Toxsin that "This is Thailand not Thaksinland") Prem still also wields a lot of power too so I for one think it very unlikely. Again TIT so anything could happen!

Indeed !! -- but something has got to give !!! Taksin doesnt look like he is going to give up trying to get back (to Thailand or power ,prob both )-- i mean look at what he has done since coup ---the planning/monies/people involved is staggering !!!!!-- all from bases abroad ,and sometimes hostile receptions from countries he trys to live in --- in a twisted way you have to admire his determination --but its pretty sure signs of a megalomanaic !!!!

--either way it will make for an interesting few months --

Despite the latest smokescreen, we all better be braced for some pretty bad news by mid-December. Not even just fear of losing face, but only one man, could save what certainly will be the fall of the younger sister over this flood's, I dare to say, comedy of mishaps. The only name I'll mention is Pracha. He's the fall guy for both. Just my bet.

[martin911]

Something seems to have given all right --the gov is pulling the parts of the royal decree that would have benifited T
And T sent a hand written letter in which he says he has no wish to see the country divided over the issue of his return , bla bla bla

Didnt think it would happen that soon --