Thailand Flooding - Reality Check

[SlaveDriver]

Let me start with a funny one.

Called one of my guys in BKK last night out of concern as to how he was doing. He was in a disco with loud music at Hotmail down Silom. Wooo Bangkokians are still having fun. Few minutes latter he was on MSN and asking me if I could help him with flood money ha ha ha :party

Coming to floods, all the Western media are flooded with Thailand nes these days as it seems they all sympathize with Thailand. CNN is full of headlines, pictures, interview with US Ambassador, etc. American sympathy or diplomacy. Sure dont let the chinese come in with the help. They are already in Sri Lanaka and Pakistan and if they set foot in Thailand, they control the entire south and east asia.

The flood has affected 185 industries (mostly foreign investments). 250, 000 people lost jobs there alone, excluding BKK losses, 9.5 million people are affected, 350 people died. 6 Billion THB cost of damage. 3 billion THB will cost to rebuild. 2 billion THB losses in lost income. This means 3 percent GDP loss.

Thailand needs help. How can we all help them. Bangkokians are now coming to Pattaya to escape the flood. Can we open our hotels to them free and let them take refuge in our cafes and bars? :violent1:

[cdnmatt]

To hell with all you flood victims. I can't find parsley or flour tortillas anywhere! Pissing me right off.

(no, I'm not serious).

Watching the news closely like everyone else. Will be interesting to see how this transpires.

[Smiles]

" ... 6 Billion THB cost of damage. 3 billion THB will cost to rebuild. 2 billion THB losses in lost income. This means 3 percent GDP loss ... "
I think you are a bit on the short side with your figures.
In the beginning of the flood when the horror stories were emerging on TV about Nakhon Sawan, then south through Chai Na, then Lop Buri, then the devastation of Ayutthaya, the costs kept going up. The first figure I remember coming out from some economist from Thammasit University (ironically, which ended up flooded) was 100 billion baht. Follow up commentary grew upwards from that number, and by the time the northern areas of Bangkok were under water 500 billion baht was the going figure being bandied about.
If, in the end, credence can be given to that last amount ~ and the flood is by no means over, now entering inner Bangkok ~ then I would not be at all surprised if 700 or 800 billion baht (+) might well be the cost range.

Solid facts on-the-ground are hard to come by in this bitch: for instance, I heard on a news program last week ~ through the mealy mouth of some fat, well-fed politician ~ that the factories in an industrial estate in Ayutthaya will be back in business in middle December ... six weeks.
By comparison, just yesterday, a representative from Honda Motors ~ one of the companies housed in that estate ~ was speaking to the press saying that it looked like the Honda factory will not be up and going for at least 6 months.

[SlaveDriver]

You are correct. Day by day as the flood siuation worsen he numbers will go up.

Honda Canada is affected as it is dependan on some parts coming from Thailand.

Electronic and Technology sales in North America are going to be affected during the golden quarter as most of the chips are stored in logistc warehouses in Thailand. There is going to be shortage of these stuffs and going to have a global impact.

Arrivals at the Airport are down my 7% during the last week and expected to go up as he days pass.

Flood related illness are going to be widespread as the water stays for about 30 days.

Keep feeding the economic numbers

Eurozone is in trouble. Greek going to get kicked out with most of the banks holding it's bonds have to suck up the debts and will go down with creating a global recession.

Italy is next to fall .......... wha more buddy

[cdnmatt]

Where did you see this 800 billion THB figure? The largest I seen was 6 billion THB, but 800 seems awfully high. That's about $26 billion USD. Does Thailand even have that much infrastructure to fix? Or are they going to be dolling out like 10,000 baht to each of the affected citizens? Even though, it'd only be 260 billion THB.

Anyway, not sure why the government is saying December for the factories to be back online. The CEOs of companies like Honda, Sony, Canon, Western Digital, etc... definitely aren't that optimistic. They're talking in terms of QUARTERS, not weeks or months. They say things like, "the next several quarters will present a unique challenge for us".

Probably a good time to buy some Western Digital though. I think their stock dropped 9% in the past couple days. Hang onto it for a year, they'll be back at the #1 hard drive supplier in the world, and stock will probably reflect it. Easy money.

[pong]

dear matt-now in Isan-edge myself, Khoat.
ALL TVs and the main newspprs showed even figs of 900 Milliard (billion for norte-americano's) to be set aside by govmt for clearing up after the floods and perhaps even installing some new water-controls. Even @ a rate of just 1% in underthetabelcoffeemoney this is a very good investment for the current MPs to share up! Thanks Taksin on your knees for so cleverly organising a flood, to show his sister needs to be replaced by a real organiser and the big rewards for his cronies. Now-this will delight the hearts of his Isan based voters!
A lot of that money is probably for the big industries so hardly hit in those drowned industrial estates-to have them keep in Thailand. Forget about the 30/40.000 Burmese working there and now out of work and backing home-500 kms standing in overloaded trucks. In this hotel I stayed were also 3-4 families from BKK and camping out as long as needed.

[Smiles]

Where did you see this 800 billion THB figure?
Read the post again. I didn't say 800 billion baht was the figure. I said that 500 billion baht was the highest 'official' estimate I'd seen ... but that it wouldn't surprise me if it went up to 7 or 8 hundred million baht when everything is added up.

The fools in this government know nothing, evidenced by the complete fuckup they've made of this disaster . . . what with:

the corruption factor (e.g. the sand bag mafia)[/*:m:1w6r7ber]
the ineptness and weakness factor (e.g. Ms Badluck Shinawatra, FROC, all departments involved in 'water'.)[/*:m:1w6r7ber]
the nepotism factor (e.g. the Puea Thai Party's ~ and Ms Badluck's ~ one-&-only important issue: re-patriating Mr Thaksin Shinawatra, AKA 'Big Brother') [/*:m:1w6r7ber]
the saving-face factor (e.g. The Boss of Bangkok, a Democrat, a 'Big Face', proclaiming he is the only dude who knows anything, and don't listen to anyone but him)[/*:m:1w6r7ber]
the turf-protection factor (e.g. Mr Barnham Silip-Archa, saviour of Suphan Buri by means of flooding his next door Province. It didn't work in the end, but nice try anyway.)[/*:m:1w6r7ber]
the FROC factor (e.g. installing headquarters at the now inundated Don Muang Airport. Also known as 'The Irony Factor')[/*:m:1w6r7ber]
the Dept of Irrigation factor (e.g. not slowly draining northern dams in July, but draining them all at once in September. See above: 'Ineptness Factor')[/*:m:1w6r7ber]
the 'Hey-guys-apparently helps-been-offered-but fuck-it' factor (e.g. two branches of (the same) government giving opposite messages: one accepting American Navy help, the other refusing it. See also: 'Ineptness Factor and 'Saving Face' factor ) [/*:m:1w6r7ber]
..... and on and on and on.[/*:m:1w6r7ber]

The stats on this website << http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsw ... ?id=623105 (http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsworld.php?id=623105) >> indicate an estimated flood cost of 140 billion baht . . . but that was on Oct 19 (2.5 weeks ago) when the flood damage to Bangkok had not even been taken into consideration. I suppose a guesstimate of adding Bangkok devastation into the figures would give a conservative figure of at least 3 times more than that, or 420 billion baht.
Then ... add to that the damage costs from further south where Samut Prakan (a very important industrial area), and Samut Songkhran are directly in the cross hairs after the water has escaped Bangkok ... in, say, another 4 or 5 weeks.

[SlaveDriver]

Thailand floods have not only affected the economy of Thailand, but it also has disrupted supply chain of auto and computer parts to the rest of the world causing shortage of these products during the golden quarter of the year for the retail industry.

From this what I learn is that Thailand not only impacts the supply chain of gay prostitutes to the world hookers, it also affects the electronic, technolgy and auto industries around the world.

I am sure everyone in this forum will realize how important is Thailand's supply chain? :party

[thanatorn-old]

Just about every year there is news of floods hitting Bangkok - granted this year is a lot lot worse. Any chance that someone in the government will pipe up and realise this is an annual occurance, and think to prepare for floods big or small as it does seem ( and I stand to correction on this) that every year the problem is only dealt with after the fact.

But I suppose if you don't live in a poor or remote area, then people in high places don't care as long as their chandelier is dry

[fedssocr]

well, of course as bad as things are now, no one seems to be preparing for the continuing inevitable effects of global climate change on low lying, coastal cities like Bangkok. Are there any strategic thinkers in Thailand with the clout to really start making the changes that are going to be needed to not only infrastructure but to attitudes about building?