Economic Downturn and Pattaya Tourism

[SlaveDriver]

How prepared we are.

Euro is in trouble. USA is in shit shape. This crumbles the world economic. People is the West are in panic mode. West feeds the tourist industry in Thailand.

How would this alter this year's high season expectations and the outlook for 2012?

Let us discuss constructively :bounce:

[bucknaway]

I just heard today that China is starting to feel some pain also as there is a lack of demand for the goods they produce.

I myself will just save and spend....

[Dboy]

I just heard today that China is starting to feel some pain also as there is a lack of demand for the goods they produce.

Very likely there's something going on with China. Copper has taken a real beating the past few sessions, and coal prices have been falling for awhile now.

As far as high season in Pattaya, I will do my part to contribute to its success:-) I think it will be about the same as the 2010 season. The Baht has been flat against the Dollar all year (same for GBP and EUR), so I doubt that will be a factor. And in a way, I think the bad economy might HELP the high season, because if other people feel like I do right now, they'll want a BREAK from this mess. And that might be a good ad campaign for the Thai Tourism people: "Your western economy is shit right now, you will likely lose your job soon, might as well enjoy a holiday in Thailand!".

Dboy

[lexusgs]

How prepared we are.

Euro is in trouble. USA is in shit shape. This crumbles the world economic. People is the West are in panic mode. West feeds the tourist industry in Thailand.

How would this alter this year's high season expectations and the outlook for 2012?

Let us discuss constructively :bounce:

Slavedriver,

I don't think Thailand has as much reliance on the traditional Western markets as it used to. Russia is now dominant and not affected so much as the Euro area right now. Arrivals from East Asia and India etc are where the growth market is for Thai tourism. Take a look at the link

http://www.thaitravelblogs.com/2011/09/ ... -july-2011 (http://www.thaitravelblogs.com/2011/09/statistics-of-visitor-arrivals-to-thailand-in-january-july-2011)

[thanatorn-old]

Just read a filler article in one of the daily rags (sorry cant remember which) that reported UK tourists were looking at/ being encouraged to travel further afield than Spain etc to gain better value for the ┬г. South east Asia with Vietnam and Thailand specifically named as favoured destinations.

I still believe UK residents will try get to exactly where they want to go as vacations are regarded as essential and not a luxury.

Personally I have only had to wait for the right airfare and keep an eye out for the sales. The current exchange rate is not great at around 48 instead of 74 that I once got, but just a matter of cutting the cloth a bit differently and not to a great degree.

i always find it amazing that a working gay guy can have any struggles with finances.. its not as if we have to worry about providing for the wife and kids.. school clothes or books etc etc .. i find it hard to spend anymore than a 3rd of what i earn .. and im by no means in a fantastic job . but the other 2 3rds goes towards trips to thailand and hopefully saving enough within the next 6 or 7 years to go live there.

[thrillbill]

True, in the 7 years I have been living in Pattaya I have seen the Russians take over 80% of the tourist markent with the Chinese, Indians, and other Asians visiting this particular city --with families. The numbers of retired British,German, and other Europeans living here for part of their retirement has also gone down in numbers. As for the gay scene (another observation) the 50 or older crowd (which is the main gay crowd here) has also dwindle in numbers with Westerners not traveling as far--especially Americans. Most, not all, 20- 35 year old Western gays (if they have the money or time) will choose Bangkok over Pattaya if they come to Thailand. Some of my gay friends from Singapore and Taiwan won't come back to Pattaya. They said once is enough (they don't care for the dirty beach and city ---as you can imagine.) So, I don't think the gay "scene" / venues will get any better in Pattaya since it has always been more of a playground for older gay men.

[DCbob]

I will be arriving from the United States on November 27 and will be leaving April 18.
Maybe my 146 days will help the downturn of tourism a little.

[Beachlover]

Euro is in trouble. USA is in shit shape. This crumbles the world economic. People is the West are in panic mode.
Sure... but the comment below is no longer true:


West feeds the tourist industry in Thailand.
I think tourism to Thailand (not just Pattaya) from the West will decline long term and be more and more replaced by Asian tourists:

- Decamillionaries are individuals with $10 million or more, an increasingly popular wealth indicator.

- Number of decamillionaires is declining rapidly in Western Europe and rising sharply in Asia.

- Number of decamillionaires in Asia will overtake Western Europe sometime this year.

Source - The Australian: 'Decamillionaires' on the rise in Asia as wealth shifts away from Western nations
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... 6142435657 (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/world/decamillionaires-on-the-rise-in-asia-as-wealth-shifts-away-from-western-nations/story-e6frg90o-1226142435657)

Also, as Thrillbill alluded to, I think Asian tourists tend to prefer Bangkok. Bangkok is a really popular getaway for a lot of tourists in the region.


i always find it amazing that a working gay guy can have any struggles with finances.. its not as if we have to worry about providing for the wife and kids.. school clothes or books etc etc .. i find it hard to spend anymore than a 3rd of what i earn ..
Totally agree... I contribute to some of my cousins' education/living and give some support to my parents and sibling/s when needed but if I had to raise an entire bloody family of four kids with private school fees, big home, medical fees, holidays and more, it would easily swallow up my current income! Only solution is to earn more...

[cottmann]

How prepared we are.

Euro is in trouble. USA is in shit shape. This crumbles the world economic. People is the West are in panic mode. West feeds the tourist industry in Thailand.

How would this alter this year's high season expectations and the outlook for 2012?

Let us discuss constructively :bounce:

Discussing this constructively, one needs to understand, first, that Western foreign tourists account for about far less than half of all foreign arrivals in Thailand (Europeans accounting for the vast majority - about 27% - of the Western arrivals figure, with North Americans and Australians, etc., making up some of the remaining percentage), while the neighbors (e.g., Malaysia) and the countries of East Asia (Japan, Korea, and China) account for about 53% of all foreign arrivals. Japanese and Chinese tourists are widely regarded as the "golden geese" of international tourism because of (a) their higher spending patterns, (b), their habit of travelinng in groups, and (c) they gabble unintelligibly and loudly. Culturally, however, they may be closer to Thais than are Europeans or North Americans.

The second thing to understand is that about the vast majority of tourists in Thailand, as in every other country, are domestic (i.e., Thai) tourists. They tend, however, to spend less and stay for shorter periods away from home than do international tourists, but they travel more often.

Western tourists are not the major contributors to Thai tourism - they will survive without us.

[ikarus]

More than half of all tourists coming currently to Pattaya (including local tourists) are coming from Russia and other countries located on the territory of former Soviet Union. So much about this bullshit of rising dominance of Asian tourists. Also, whenever shit Bernanke stops printing money, US Dollar goes up which should help older gay tourists (who have savings) from US. Now, if we only could get rid of Obama... I, however, have a concrete question to those who are currently in Pattaya. In light of current devastating floods in Thailand there should be a substantial influx of new sex workers in Pattaya. Do you really see that?

[Brisboy82]

i always find it amazing that a working gay guy can have any struggles with finances.. its not as if we have to worry about providing for the wife and kids.. school clothes or books etc etc .. i find it hard to spend anymore than a 3rd of what i earn .. and im by no means in a fantastic job . but the other 2 3rds goes towards trips to thailand and hopefully saving enough within the next 6 or 7 years to go live there.

You must be doing very well to struggle to spend more than a third of your income.

For example the average income in Australia after tax is about 1000 per week. Rent is 300+ per week for a very crappy apartment. There is almost a third gone just in rent. And plenty of people getting less than 1000pw income. Minimum wage is about 500pw after tax and a LOT of people have to make do with that.

A night out costs 100-200 dollars. Lunch near my work is about 10 dollars at a simple eatery. Train fares add up to 50 dollars a week. Then there's groceries and bills!

Being single is a lot harder than being a two income couple with no children.

Having children is very expensive but you also get a lot of tax cuts and gourmet assistance. Like the woman at my work who actually works 4 days a week instead of 5 because she gets more money from the government that way.

Finding affordable accommodation is the bigger problem if you're single.

As for global recessions. That doesn't effect most people unless they lose their job. Then that 1000pw becomes a welfare payment of about 300pw including rent assistance. Try living on that!

If you're unemployed an have children you are better off in that case. I know one unemployed single mother who gets 1000pw tax free and subsidized housing as she receives payments for about 5 of her 11 children. She spends it all on weed and cans of jack and coke. She doesn't have any financial concerns she's quite satisfied.

well maybe its to do with being sensible i own my one home now so i dont have rent or a morgage, even now when some of my mates go out and spend ┬г100 almost every saturday it still amazes me how they can do it.
paying off my house was something i wanted to do a.s.a.p. the reason being i hate owing people money.
i know its no so easy now to buy a place because of how much they cost.
my plan in a fw years time is to rent my house out here and then rent a condo in pattata , but i still need to save plenty more being as i cant work in thailand :dontknow:
either that or win the lotto then ill buy the corner bar and take it easy :occasion9:

[puckered_penguin]

for those who like lies and statistics can explore this site for the immigration police numbers on arrivals etc. to Thailand
http://www.tourism.go.th/2010/th/statistic/tourism.php

[Brisboy82]

well maybe its to do with being sensible i own my one home now so i dont have rent or a morgage, even now when some of my mates go out and spend ┬г100 almost every saturday it still amazes me how they can do it.
paying off my house was something i wanted to do a.s.a.p. the reason being i hate owing people money.
i know its no so easy now to buy a place because of how much they cost.
my plan in a fw years time is to rent my house out here and then rent a condo in pattata , but i still need to save plenty more being as i cant work in thailand :dontknow:
either that or win the lotto then ill buy the corner bar and take it easy :occasion9:

Some are lucky enough to have been around in the days when it was possible to buy a house for 150,000 which was possible on an average income. However now that the absolute bottom of the real estate market is around 300,000 it's impossible for somebody such as myself who can get a mortgage maximum of about 170,000. So I don't have such a luxury to buy and payoff a house really quickly.

[sydneyboy]

If its any consolation I refuse to believe Pattaya could not be any worse than my last visit in January last year.

[Beachlover]

Japanese and Chinese tourists are widely regarded as the "golden geese" of international tourism because of (a) their higher spending patterns, (b), their habit of travelinng in groups...
Yeah, I've noticed that. So many of them love being sheep that way! What's up with that?

[Beachlover]

You must be doing very well to struggle to spend more than a third of your income.

For example the average income in Australia after tax is about 1000 per week. Rent is 300+ per week for a very crappy apartment. There is almost a third gone just in rent. And plenty of people getting less than 1000pw income. Minimum wage is about 500pw after tax and a LOT of people have to make do with that.

A night out costs 100-200 dollars. Lunch near my work is about 10 dollars at a simple eatery. Train fares add up to 50 dollars a week. Then there's groceries and bills!
1. It comes down to your income, expectations and spending habits. I spend only a bit over a third of my income and try to keep it there. Rent for me is just under $600/week for a 1-bedder plus I share some costs at a second place (long story). Going out is another $500-$700/week. There's other stuff too. I also fork out a few things for family/relatives and spend a fair chunk on travel and short getaways (more of those and less longer trips now). The rest goes into saving/investing for the future. I've always put savings before lifestyle and it's nice to be able to have both and not have to be as disciplined as I used to be now.

2. If I was restricted to earning the average $50k/year, the first thing I'd be doing is NOT have my own place. I'd share an apartment and pay maybe $150-$200/week for a room. Most important would be location close to work to cut travel dead time and stay connected and in close proximity to friends. Probably avoid owning a car.

This way you could probably put aside $10k-15k/year and still live ok. Putting aside that much, you could probably afford a deposit on a decent place within a few years, start paying it off and further build your net worth.

At lower income levels you really have to choose what's important to you and what's not.

3. I see some friends who earn less than me splurge on stupid stuff and don't understand why they do that at such a great expense to their future living standard and security.


Being single is a lot harder than being a two income couple with no children.
I really disagree with this. A LOT of your living costs are halved if you're a couple living together. Whether you have your own place or share a 2-3 bedder with others, you pay half the rent because there's two people contributing. Same goes with bills and utilities, furniture, home entertainment, car (if you only have one) and some other things. When you travel, you pay half the price (per capita) for accommodation. You can instantly double your hotel budget or spend half as much - whichever you prefer!


If you're unemployed an have children you are better off in that case. I know one unemployed single mother who gets 1000pw tax free and subsidized housing as she receives payments for about 5 of her 11 children. She spends it all on weed and cans of jack and coke. She doesn't have any financial concerns she's quite satisfied.
People like that are the bottom of the barrel for society... They have no self worth or value to others.


As for global recessions. That doesn't effect most people unless they lose their job. Then that 1000pw becomes a welfare payment of about 300pw including rent assistance. Try living on that!
Employees may feel the pain a little later than employers but It all trickles down eventually. During shitty times, people are less likely to transition to higher-earning jobs, less people get employed, the market rates for a lot of salaries goes down. Someone who would've expected to get $110-$120k/year will suddenly find themselves competing with people willing to accept a job for $80k-90k/year. I hired people for 15-20% less than normal during the GFC and had to re-assess and bump up their packages by significant margins a year later.