No End In Sight!

[Nirish guy]

If a report published today by the Health Information and Quality Authority (HQIA) in the Republic of Ireland is correct even IF a vaccine is administered to everyone further evidence shows that its still unclear if long-term immunity to Covid 19 is even possible as it suggests that it may be possible to get reinfected again. The Report also dismissed the possible use of mass screening at airports using devices such as infrared thermal scanners as these were not found to be effective in identifying infectious individuals or in limiting the spread of coronavirus. All of which if accurate would I'm sure stop a lot of Countries rushing to reopen their borders quickly again too.

[goji]

If a report published today by the Health Information and Quality Authority (HQIA) in the Republic of Ireland is correct even IF a vaccine is administered to everyone further evidence shows that its still unclear if long-term immunity to Covid 19 is even possible as it suggests that it may be possible to get reinfected again.

Whilst not claiming to be an expert, I imagine the report is correct.

It's not yet clear if a vaccine will give long term immunity -the trials will need to run for longer to show that.
It's not even 100% clear if the vaccines will give short term immunity, although there is some evidence that shows this is pretty likely.

That's also not the same as saying the vaccines won't give long term immunity -it's just an unknown.
Also, there is evidence that the response of some parts of the immune system to previous coronavirus infections have lasted well over a decade, so that's quite encouraging.

Even a vaccine every 6 months would be better than the current situation.

[bkkguy]

Also, there is evidence that the response of some parts of the immune system to previous coronavirus infections have lasted well over a decade, so that's quite encouraging.

the two parts of the immune system that are important here are antibodies and T-cells - with covid-19, antibodies are currently thought to only provide short-term immunity and T-cells longer-term immunity, and while nobody currently definitely knows what the time difference between short- and longer-term really is for covid-19, many of the current vaccines currently under development have shown good T-cell responses as well as antibodies - which yes is encouraging

but even if there are vaccines available, and widely distributed, early next year it will still be years before we have a good understanding of what is really effective - but again as you say that is better then the current situation - but I still don't understand how governments can establish procedures to open borders to tourists given all these unknowns

[goji]

even if there are vaccines available, and widely distributed, early next year it will still be years before we have a good understanding of what is really effective - but again as you say that is better then the current situation - but I still don't understand how governments can establish procedures to open borders to tourists given all these unknowns

Sample procedure:
1 Government decides it finally needs tourism money
2 Government allows visitors from country with low infection rate or extensive vaccination
3 Government monitors effect on local infection rates and adjusts policy as required

[bkkguy]

Sample procedure:

1 Government decides it finally needs tourism money
when all you have is a hammer everything looks like a nail, when your tourism industry - and thus the economy - is suffering, getting the same number of tourists back is not the only/best solution

2 Government allows visitors from country with low infection rate or extensive vaccination
if Thailand had picked Vietnam as a low infection rate country at the end of July they would probably have regretted that by the end of the first week of August, just one example - do you need more?

some of us oldies may remember the yellow "vaccination passport" cards we used to travel with showing vaccination against diseases such as yellow fever, etc, before we could qualify for entry to some countries, these were for reasonably well understood diseases, vaccines, immunity, etc - what timeframe are you realistically projecting for this level of confidence for covid-19 vaccination? what timeframe are you realistically projecting for any country to achieve "extensive vaccination" and what will this actually mean in term of risk of spreading infection to the local population here?

3 Government monitors effect on local infection rates and adjusts policy as required
while not directly related to opening borders to tourists, you may like to look at situation in Victoria and New South Wales in Australia to see how quickly, and how successfully, governments can just "adjusts policy as required", other examples available

and internationally the debate continues on the difference of the long term impact on the economy, population mental and general health, etc of a second wave of infections and lockdowns v's maintaining fairly softly-softly slow releasing of restrictions

I am not saying Thailand should never be allowing entry of tourists again, I am just saying I don't see any easy answers in the next 6-12 months, possibly longer

[arsenal]

It's unlikely to be country by country. Far more likely is person by person. Technically you need a return ticket or an onward flight to enter Thailand and technically the airlines are supposed to check this. I've been asked once in 16 years.

Produce your vaccination certificate at check in or you're not allowed on the plane. Easy peasy.

[bkkguy]

Produce your vaccination certificate at check in or you're not allowed on the plane. Easy peasy.

I must of missed something obvious here - who is producing the "certificate" "easy peasy" and what exactly does it mean?

[bkkguy]

Produce your vaccination certificate at check in or you're not allowed on the plane. Easy peasy.

is the USA one of the countries you are expecting to produce this "certificate" "easy peasy"?

from a recent Medscape article more than 40% of Americans are obese and "obesity has emerged as a factor making it more difficult to vaccinate adults against [other infections]. The question is whether that will hold true for COVID-19."

and the answer to that will be available in 1 day? 1 month? 1 year?

it is so nice to have "easy peasy" solutions available now isn't it?

[Zebedee]

Doctor Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist of the World Health Organization:

Historically, less than 10 percent of vaccine candidates that go into testing are successful. If some of the vaccines in human clinical trials are effective, they should be available sometime next year. But when exactly is very hard to predict. Very optimistically, the timeline for the first doses would be the first half of 2021.

It is important to note that even with a successful vaccine, there will be a limited number of doses initially. We will not have eight or ten billion doses available to be able to vaccinate the whole world. We might have a few hundred million doses, meaning we would have to prioritise some sections of the population - such as front-line workers, health workers, social care workers and others who are at very high risk. Thereafter, manufacturing can be scaled up, and more vaccine candidates tested. And hopefully, by 2022, we will be in a position to have many more vaccines available.

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/fe...160850273.html

[arsenal]

Not giving that much consideration to morbidly obese Americans.

As stated before. I'm expecting to be vaccinated and able to go to Thailand in December. Let's wait and see. Easy peasy.