The Elephant in the Room.

[arsenal]

Back in January of this year a rather prophetic Fancois wrote:

"Haven't you heard of Donald Trump? The Germans elected HItler and the Americans could just as easy elect someone like Donald Trump just as dangerous as Hitler in his own demented way."

Well they did and he is. Nothing to do with Thailand I hear some of you say. Well think on. China is replacing (has already replaced in many areas) America as the dominant power in world politics and it's unlikely that The US will exit stage right without a fight. That is likely to be in Asia and that will certainly involve Thailand.

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[cdnmatt]

In what ways exactly? The US is still the strongest economy and military in the world.

Especially militarily.... China is nowhere even close to the US on a military level. For sake of comparison, it's like the US is already exploring other galaxies and solar systems, while China just reached the moon.

Obviously, this is all assuming Trump doesn't plummet the US into a 3rd world shithole during his term, which it sounds like are his intentions.

[Steve1903]

What happened to the elephant?

[fountainhall]

The US is still the strongest economy and military in the world.

Especially militarily.... China is nowhere even close to the US on a military level. For sake of comparison, it's like the US is already exploring other galaxies and solar systems, while China just reached the moon.

For your Christmas present, do yourself a favour and buy two books. "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" by Paul Kennedy was written about 30 years ago but remains totally relevant today. Just as the Egyptian, Greek, Roman, Byzantine, Russian, Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian, British and other empires collapsed because their military might overreached their ability to create the wealth to finance them, so will the empire of the United States. It's a given.

Secondly, "The Silk Roads: A New History of the World" by Peter Frankopian written last year to ecstatic reviews. Frankopian paints a stunningly fascinating picture of a world returning to its natural centre. Two quotes -

“For centuries before the early modern era, the intellectual centres of excellence of the world, the Oxfords and Cambridges, the Harvards and Yales, were not located in Europe or the west, but in Baghdad and Balkh, Bukhara and Samarkand”

“We are witnessing . . . the birthing pains of a region that once dominated the intellectual, cultural and economic landscape and which is now re-emerging. We are seeing the signs of the world’s centre of gravity shifting – back to where it lay for millennia”.

As one amazon reviewer writes, "The short term approach of the USA in contrast with the long term view of China is just one of the blatantly obvious worries highlighted. An incredibly timely book."

[arsenal]

Matt: China is the biggest trading partner with most of Asia now. China will spend over $300 billion on tourism alone every year. This is a new type of empire and imperialism. One where control is exercised not through a huge big fuck off Aircraft carrier but with a diplomat threatening to close the cheque book. But, hey...believe what you want to. A few years ago every American I met took the same view as you but today their opinion has palpably shifted to a grudging acceptance. Did you not notice how quickly some of the United States staunchest allies joined the new world bank set up and controlled by China? Did you not notice how The Philippines switched sides virtually overnight? I could go on

[latintopxxx]

...havent u guys realised it that the whole world are whores....they follow the cash....all gogo/MB....but i can certainly guarantee u that the moment China over reaches by seriously bullying a close neighbour... Im absolutely positively sure that that neighbour will come wimpering at Trumps door...I can only hope that its the Philippines so that Trump can give them the middle finger....by twitter naturally....last thing we need is some limp wristed jimmy carter

[cdnmatt]

fountainhall, good point on the crumbling empires, and that could very easily happen, Playing devil's advicate, one could also argue the main difference between then and now is due to technology,, the world is a much smaller place than it used to be. The US military currently monitors every square inch of this world, and can strike by air or land anywhere on the globe within hours.

I know you'll probably bring up the defeciet, but first, the USD is the global reserve currency. There's been several attempts to knock it from its poisition over the past couple decades, none of which were remotely successful. Second, this world needs a #1 super power to lead the way on global issues (ie. climate change), set precedent, set the tone for a moral compass across the globe, and so on. Whether you like it or not, agree with it or not, the US is in that position, and most in the world look to the US for that level of global leadership, and there is nobody else to fill the void if the US crumbles. I'm not very happy with who the next President is, but I am happy the US is in the position it is. For those who aren't, that song "you don't know what you got until it's gone" rings a bell.

Then you're implying the intellectual centers of the world are moving back to places like Baghdad? Ummmm... have you read the news any time in the past 14 years? I don't think Baghdad is going to become a mecca for intellectuals anytime soon.

arsenal, US GDP is $16.77 trillion, while China's is $9.24 trillion. US annual military spending is about $598 billion, whereas China is about $146 billion.

In other words, you can put the "China #1" foamy finger away.

[arsenal]

Matt wrote:
"US GDP is $16.77 trillion, while China's is $9.24 trillion. US annual military spending is about $598 billion, whereas China is about $146 billion."

Did you actually read what I wrote? Did you actually understand it? Clearly not. Nor what Fountainhall posted either for that matter. And if you want to play the numbers game.
US debt: $19,643,000,000,000
China debt: $1,680,000,000,000

[cdnmatt]

Well, if you want to change the definition and metrics of what is and isn't considered a world super power to fit your own biases, then go for it. Doesn't make you right, nor does it change the facts or the reality of the world we live in.

[arsenal]

Matt: It is you who isn't facing the new reality of the world we live in. Under Clinton if China had decided to build a military base in the middle of international waters he would have sent a Nimitz or two and put a stop to it. Today it's all but finished and ready for action. Besides any new conflict is likely to involve cyber attacks as much as tanks and squaddies and in that respect China has 2'000'000 people on the payroll.

Plus, America has always linked investment and trading privileges to democracy while China isn't interested in that and will happily do business with the most brutal dictator. Therefore for most countries and their Presidents China is the better option. But hey...leave that head in the sand if you choose to.